Temple Owls
Seed: 7
Record: 25-7
Conference: Atlantic 10
vs.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Seed: 10
Record: 19-14
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Thursday, March 17
Time: 2:10 pm Eastern
Location: Tucson, AZ
Region: West
Two teams from Pennsylvania travel all the way to Arizona to play. How's that for cost-consciousness?
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Temple Penn State
Power Ratings
Strength: #41 (#37 of 68) Strength: #51 (#45 of 68)
Neutral court: #40 Neutral court: #49
Tempo-free: #37 Tempo-free: #49
Offense: #56 Offense: #45
Defense: #28 Defense: #64Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #48 2nd half of season: #23
Last 6 games: #57 Last 6 games: #30
Injury adjustment: #56 Injury adjustment: #50
Consistency: #74 Consistency: #287
Deep Run Potential: #30 Deep Run Potential: #63
Upset Potential: #49 Upset Potential: #44
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =Georgia+7, Georgetown+3, Akron+35, Richmond+20
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =Texas A&M-3, @Villanova-4, @Xavier-11, @Duke-17, =Richmond-4
- Other losses (2): =California-7, @Duquesne-12
Key Info: Temple has declines somewhat over the course of the season, so that they rank about 10 spots lower than they do for the whole year. It hasn't stopped them from winning a lot of games, as they finished 14-2 in the Atlantic 10, but they had a few close calls that shouldn't have been close. In December they beat Georgetown, but in late February Duke beat them by 17.
A lot of that has to do with the absence of Scootie Randall, the team's 3rd leading scorer, and former starter Michael Eric, the team's best big man. Randall is hoping to return for the game but is still questionable and probably won't be as effective as he was before he was hurt, at least against Penn State.
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Season overview: Penn State (19-14)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): Michigan St.+4, Illinois+2, Wisconsin+4, =Wisconsin+3, =Michigan St.+13
- Losses to tournament teams (10): @Michigan-7, Purdue-15, @Ohio St.-3, @Purdue-1, @Illinois-17, Michigan-3, @Michigan St.-18, @Wisconsin-10, Ohio St.-21, =Ohio St.-11
- Other losses (4): @Mississippi-13, Maryland-23, @Virginia Tech-10, Maine-10
Key Info: The Nittany Lions are a 5-man show, with the starters all averaging over 30 minutes per game. Taylor Battle is the story here, as the senior guard has averaged 20.1 points per game—a rarity in the lower-scoring Big Ten (he's 2nd in the league to Purdue's JuJuan Johnson).
Penn State had a rocky start and looked terrible after a slew of bad losses—including a home loss to lowly Maine, and falling (also at home) to Maryland 62-39 in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. The Lions righted the ship, though, and by mid-season although they were still losing, they were playing well. The definition of losing well? Falling by three points at Ohio State, as the Lions did on January 15. Late in the year they started winning, and for the last month have been on top of their game heading into the NCAAs.
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Game Analysis: These teams are going in different directions. Penn State is peaking right now, while Temple was best earlier in the year when they had more size and a healthy team.
A lot depends on whether Randall comes back for the Owls, and whether he's close to 100%. He would give the Lions another long target to guard, and the team plays notably better when he's in the lineup. The Owls are still going to have to play small, which doesn't hurt as much against Penn State.
Vegas Line:
Temple by 2 1/2
Power rating spread
Temple by 1.3
% Chance to win
Temple: 52%
Penn State: 48%
While Vegas and the Strength Power Rating agree that Temple is the favorite, the game-by-game analysis odds show a set of outcomes that is barely in the Owls' favor. This one could go either way. The two teams are neck and neck in the Pomeroy ratings, #38 and #39.
Bottom line: Randall's return would be a boon for Temple, but Penn State is on a roll and should get the win regardless.
Final prediction: Penn State 61, Temple 58
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