Washington Huskies
Seed: 7
Record: 23-10
Conference: Pac-10
vs.
Georgia Bulldogs
Seed: 10
Record: 21-11
Conference: SEC
Date: Friday, March 18
Time: 9:45 pm Eastern
Location: Charlotte, NC
Region: East
7-seed Washington travels to the Eastern time zone to face 10-seed Georgia.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Washington Georgia
Power Ratings
Strength: #7 (#7 of 68) Strength: #59 (#47 of 68)
Neutral court: #10 Neutral court: #56
Injuries Adj: #15 Injuries Adj: #58
Tempo-free: #10 Tempo-free: #62
Offense: #7 Offense: #83
Defense: #36 Defense: #47Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #25 2nd half of season: #51
Last 6 games: #53 Last 6 games: #60
Consistency: #333 Consistency: #207
Deep Run Potential: #14 Deep Run Potential: #61
Upset Potential: #4 Upset Potential: #55
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): @Southern California+OT, @UCLA+11, Arizona+17, UCLA+7, =Arizona+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =Kentucky-7, =Michigan St.-5, @Texas A&M-1, @Arizona-1, Southern California-2
- Other losses (5): @Stanford-2, @Washington St.-7, @Oregon St.-12, @Oregon-5, Washington St.-11
Key Info: Washington is an interesting team for a lot of details in their power rating scores. 1) they finish in the top ten despite 10 losses; 2) their Neutral Court rating is clearly lower than their overall average, since they have played poorly on the road and this rating balances the number of home and road games; 3) their Injury Adjustment rating is even lower, at #15. This is due to losing Abdul Gaddy after 13 games—since he's been unavailable, the team hasn't been as good. With him, they rank #3 in the nation; 4) they've played notably poorer in the 2nd half of the season, and 5) their consistency is very low, at #333, which means their odds of a deep run are low, but they could upset a 2-seed (or be upset by a 10-seed).
After Gaddy's injury, Isaiah Thomas took over at point guard, and this could be some of the reason for the dip in performance; losing one good player and shifting your star to a different position is bound to cause disruption. Thomas averaged 16.8 points, and if his play during Washington's Pac-10 title run is any indication, he's settled into the role well. Matthew Bryan-Amaning adds 15 points and 8.1 rebounds for the Huskies.
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Season overview: Georgia (21-11)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): UAB+2, Kentucky+7, @Tennessee+6
- Losses to tournament teams (9): =Notre Dame-OT, =Temple-7, @Vanderbilt-7, Tennessee-2, Florida-OT, @Kentucky-6, Xavier-8, Vanderbilt-8, @Florida-9
- Other losses (2): @Alabama-8, Alabama-OT
Key Info: Georgia was only 3-8 against tournament teams, but all of the teams that beat them were higher seeds, and they beat 4-seed Kentucky one out of two tries. They fell to Alabama twice, once on the road and once at home in overtime. Needing an upset in the tournament, it doesn't look good that they have such a consistent record of beating teams worse than they are while losing to those that are better.
Forward Trey Thompkins powers the Bulldogs with 16.1 points per game and 7.5 rebounds, while guard Travis Leslie impressively averages 7.2 rebounds with his 14.5 points.
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Game Analysis: First we start with the fact that Washington is a much better team overall. Then we note that they play much better at home, and they are travelling quite a distance, almost making this a road game. We note how much better they were when they had Gaddy. Dock them further for their play the 2nd half of the season, and even over the last six games.
Still, they come out ahead of Georgia in every instance. If we want to argue for a Georgia win, we have to either A) call for an upset, pure and simple, defying the odds, or B) note Washington's extreme inconsistency, and wager that the "bad" Washington will show up. The Huskies' inconsistency, however, could be due to some of the factors above: home vs. road, and Gaddy vs. post-Gaddy.
Vegas Line:
Washington by 5 1/2
Power rating spread
Washington by 6.0
% Chance to win
Washington: 66%
Georgia: 34%
Here we gave Georgia home court advantage, mostly because Washington is travelling across 3 time zones and their neutral court rating is lower than their unadjusted rating. It seems to pretty closely match the Vegas line. The resulting win% is about 2/3.
Bottom line: Try as we might, there's no logical way to pick Georgia. If you do, you're saying that a fluke is going happen. And flukes do happen, often, and the Bulldogs could very well win the game. But all of our numbers line up on one side, and Washington is fresh off a Pac-10 title, so we have to go with the Huskies.
Final prediction: Washington 75, Georgia 71
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