2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (6) Xavier vs. (11) Marquette

Xavier Musketeers
Seed: 6
Record: 24-7
Conference: Atlantic 10

vs.

Marquette Golden Eagles
Seed: 11
Record: 20-14
Conference: Big East

Date: Friday, March 18
Time: 7:27 pm Eastern
Location: Cleveland, OH 
Region: East

 

A rust-belt battle between the Atlantic 10's highest seed and the Big East's 11th team in.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Xavier                             Marquette

Power Ratings

Strength:      #46 (#41 of 68)     Strength:      #29 (#28 of 68)
Neutral court: #45                 Neutral court: #29
Injuries Adj:  #43                 Injuries Adj:  #29

Tempo-free:    #39                 Tempo-free:    #29
Offense:       #35                 Offense:       #17
Defense:       #62                 Defense:       #70

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #16            2nd half of season: #26
Last 6 games:       #44            Last 6 games:       #50

Consistency:        #326           Consistency:        #133
Deep Run Potential: #69            Deep Run Potential: #24
Upset Potential:    #34            Upset Potential:    #38

 

Season overview: Xavier (24-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): Wofford+OT, Butler+2, Temple+11, @Richmond+23, @Georgia+8
• Losses to tournament teams (4): =Old Dominion-9, @Gonzaga-10, Florida-4, @Cincinnati-20
• Other losses (3): @Miami OH-11, @Charlotte-4, =Dayton-1

Key Info: Xavier suddenly started playing really well in January, and for the most part they kept that up the rest of the year. Along the way they beat tournament teams from the Southern, Horizon, and SEC, and lost to some from the West Coast, SEC, and Big East.

Tu Holloway is a big reason for their success. He scores 20.2 per game for the Musketeers and grabs 5.1 rebounds, pretty good for a guard; he also dishes out 5.5 assists per game. Xavier has been to three straight Sweet Sixteens...pretty good for a mid-major.

             **************************************************************
 

Season overview: Marquette (20-14)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): Bucknell+11, West Virginia+5, Notre Dame+22, Syracuse+6, @Connecticut+OT, =West Virginia+6
• Losses to tournament teams (13): =Duke-5, =Gonzaga-3, Wisconsin-5, @Vanderbilt-1, @Pittsburgh-8, @Louisville-1, @Notre Dame-5, Connecticut-8, @Villanova-5, @Georgetown-9, St. John's-12, Cincinnati-7, =Louisville-25
• Other losses (1): @Seton Hall-13

Key Info: Marquette has probably lost to more tournament teams than any other tournament team. They've also won six games against the field, for a remarkable 19 games total. A lot of that is due to being in the Big East with 10 other bids, of course.

The Eagles were lucky to get here, and it didn't always look likely. But they beat some big opponents down the stretch to make it happen. And a lot of those losses—7 to be exact—were by 5 or fewer points. But teams like Marquette who score well in power ratings but have a lot of losses tend to be unpredictable, and that's certainly the case here. They rank #326 in consistency of play, so they could upset a lot of teams, or be upset themselves. For this game, as the lower seed, that might be good news.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Despite Xavier's higher seed and better record, Marquette comes out on top of the power ratings across the board, except for one area: play during the 2nd half of the season. There, Xavier looks like a top 20 team, while Marquette looks about the same as they do for the whole year.

How Xavier plays might not matter as much as how Marquette plays, but since the latter is mostly unpredictable we'll assume the average and decide what to do about the Musketeers.

The question of home court should be considered, as they are playing in Ohio. But Xavier and Cleveland are on opposite edges of the state, and Marquette is in the same general region, so I don't think it applies here.

Vegas Line:

Xavier by  2

Power rating spread

Marquette by  2.6    2nd half: Xavier by 4.4   
 

% Chance to win

Xavier:      42%    
Marquette:   58%    

Vegas likes the Musketeers, but our power rating likes Marquette by 2 or 3, and 58%. But using the 2nd half of the season, Xavier is up by 4.4. .

Bottom line: I like the Musketeers to continue winning. Maybe not reaching the Sweet Sixteen this year, but at least the Round of 32. Marquette just loses too often and that seems to get to be a habit, especially in close games.

Final prediction: Xavier 72, Marquette 71