Georgetown Hoyas
Seed: 6
Record: 21-10
Conference: Big East
vs.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Seed: 11
Record: 24-11
Conference: Colonial Athletic
Date: Friday, March 18
Time: 9:50 pm Eastern
Location: Chicago, IL
Region: Southwest
Some say VCU didn't deserve to be in the tournament, but they played their way into a game with Georgetown. Will they be the first ever play-in team to advance to the Round of 32?
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Georgetown Virginia Commonwealth
Power Ratings
Strength: #23 (#23 of 68) Strength: #89 (#52 of 68)
Neutral court: #23 Neutral court: #86
Injuries Adj: #19 (#177) Injuries Adj: #93
Tempo-free: #24 Tempo-free: #83
Offense: #20 Offense: #64
Defense: #48 Defense: #131Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #37 2nd half of season: #81
Last 6 games: #110 Last 6 games: #67
Consistency: #155 Consistency: #98
Deep Run Potential: #20 Deep Run Potential: #81
Upset Potential: #30 Upset Potential: #103
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): @Old Dominion+3, =Wofford+15, NC Asheville+15, @Missouri+OT, Utah St.+17, @Memphis+17, St. John's+25, @Villanova+3, Louisville+3, @Syracuse+8, Marquette+9
- Losses to tournament teams (10): @Temple-3, @Notre Dame-14, @St. John's-3, West Virginia-6, Pittsburgh-15, @Connecticut-8, Cincinnati-12, Syracuse-7, @Cincinnati-22, =Connecticut-17
- Other losses (0): none
Key Info: Georgetown has played a staggering 21 games against tournament foes: 14 in the Big East and 7 from other conferences. They've lost to no team outside of tournament opponents. Still, they may be very vulnerable to being upset in the first round, and the reason is reflected at the end of the chart.
Since losing point Chris Wright, Georgetown has been in a slump, and it's been terrible. They haven't just lost four straight, they've played like the 177th best team in the country instead of the 23rd best team in the country. Wright's broken hand has since healed and he's reportedly been cleared to play. If he's 100% then the Hoyas could go far; excluding those last 4 games Georgetown ranks #14. But if he's somewhere between 50% and 100%, who knows?
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Season overview: Virginia Commonwealth (24-11)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =UCLA+4, Wofford+9, @Old Dominion+9, George Mason+16, =Southern California+13
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =Tennessee-5, @Richmond-12, @UAB-3, Old Dominion-11, George Mason-20, Old Dominion-5
- Other losses (5): @South Florida-OT, @Georgia St.-10, @Northeastern-11, @Drexel-4, James Madison-3
Key Info: After last night, VCU has defeated both UCLA and USC as well as conference-mates Old Dominion and George Mason. They lost to Tennessee, and fell to 12-seed play-in UAB. The win over USC was just as solid as the upset of George Mason two games earlier.
The Rams hit their stride in the middle of the season, building up a good case for the CAA to have three selections, only to see that argument crumble by the season's end as they lost 6 of their last 11 games. Still, they'd achieved enough goodwill to be one of the last four in. VCU tries to harass teams with full court pressure, but their poor defensive efficiency suggests that if teams are able to get into the half-court they are having success. On offense four Rams average double figures; Jamie Skeen had 16 against USC.
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Game Analysis: Is Wright really healthy, and will Georgetown's offense go back to being the efficient machine that it was before he got hurt? If it takes any time to readjust, the Hoyas will be in trouble. VCU's defense smothered USC, and will attempt to do the same to Georgetown. If they get physical with Wright, they could disrupt the Hoyas' flow.
We have to figure that, if the doctors cleared Wright, then he's capable of playing. But we can't assume he's at 100%, so we'll figure that the Hoyas will be somewhere between where they are with and without him.
Vegas Line:
Georgetown by 5 1/2
Power rating spread
Georgetown w/Wright: GTown by 10.4
Georgetown w/o Wright: VCU by 7.0
% Chance to win
Georgetown: w/Wright 81% w/o 25%
VCU: 19% 75%
The sample without Wright is small and leads to a huge change, but I think it's fairly accurate. If I knew he wouldn't play, I would definitely pick VCU. Averaged together, the Hoyas have a 53% chance of winning.
The oddsmakers have clearly placed the line closer to VCU given Georgetown's situation, but still favor the Hoyas.
Bottom line: Wright is playing, however, and even assuming a poor 50% effectiveness the Hoyas should pull it out. Might be a close one, though, and I don't plan to advance Georgetown very far just in case.
Final prediction: Georgetown 67, VCU 65
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