2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (5) West Virginia vs. (12) Clemson

West Virginia Mountaineers
Seed: 5
Record: 20-11
Conference: Big East

vs.

Clemson Tigers
Seed: 12
Record: 22-11
Conference: ACC

Date: Thursday, March 17
Time: 12:15 pm Eastern
Location: Tampa, FL 
Region: East

 

Clemson will play the first game ever as a 12-seed with a win under its belt by the Round of 64.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     West Virginia                      Clemson

Power Ratings

Strength:      #18 (#18 of 68)     Strength:      #35 (#32 of 68)
Neutral court: #20                 Neutral court: #35
Injuries Adj:  #17                 Injuries Adj:  #34

Tempo-free:    #20                 Tempo-free:    #35
Offense:       #27                 Offense:       #78
Defense:       #30                 Defense:       #12

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #18            2nd half of season: #16
Last 6 games:       #17            Last 6 games:       #11

Consistency:        #107           Consistency:        #72
Deep Run Potential: #16            Deep Run Potential: #25
Upset Potential:    #28            Upset Potential:    #45

 

Season overview: West Virginia (20-11)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): Oakland+24, =Vanderbilt+3, @Georgetown+6, Purdue+4, @Cincinnati+11, Notre Dame+14, Connecticut+9, Louisville+2
• Losses to tournament teams (8): St. John's-10, @Marquette-5, @Louisville-1, @Villanova-16, Pittsburgh-5, @Syracuse-11, @Pittsburgh-13, =Marquette-6
• Other losses (3): =Minnesota-4, @Miami FL-3, =Marshall-4

Key Info: Mired in the uber-competitive Big East, West Virginia managed to again have a successful season but not one that distinguished it as one of the top teams in the country. If the Mountaineers are going to repeat last year's Final Four success, they're going to need even more luck than it normally takes. Some things remain the same—they still have Joe Mazzulla after all these years. But Da’Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks are gone.

The Mountaineers have been battle-test by a tough schedule—they went 8-8 among tourney teams—that included wins over Vanderbilt and Purdue but also losses to Minnesota, Miami, and Marshall. Basically if West Virginia is shooting well they can beat anybody, and if they aren't they can lose to a decent opponent. That alone puts the Clemson game up for grabs.

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Season overview: Clemson (22-11)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (3): Wofford+8, Florida St.+18, =UAB+18
  
• Losses to tournament teams (7): =Old Dominion-1, Michigan-8, @Florida St.-6, @North Carolina-10, North Carolina-2, @Duke-11, @North Carolina-OT
• Other losses (4): @South Carolina-4, @Maryland-2, @Virginia-2, @North Carolina St.-8

Key Info: Clemson has three scorers who average double figures, including Demontez Stitt and Jerai Grant, seniors who saw the Tigers lose in the first round for three straight years. Senior motivation is a powerful force in the tournament, and they jumped on UAB early and didn't let up. Now the question is, how hungry are they for more, or was the play-in win enough, psychologically?

The way Clemson's been playing recently, they could go a lot farther. Don't let their 8-7 (now 9-7) finish fool you; the Tigers have been steadily improving this year and rank #16 in our power rating for the second half of the season. They are also a defense-focused squad, ranking nearly in the top ten in defensive efficiency.

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Game Analysis: This should be a tough game between two major-conference foes. Clemson has been improving despite their questionable record. No one questions West Virginia's quality, even though they have essentially the same record and pattern of losses.

The Tigers are peaking at the right time. They had to, just to get into the tournament; and again, to get to the real Round of 64. If West Virginia is caught off guard the Tigers could pull off the upset. It's the age-old question—does having a tournament win under your belt give you momentum?

Vegas Line:

No line posted yet

Power rating spread

West Virginia by  2.3   
 

% Chance to win

West Virginia:  56% 
Clemson:        44% 

I expect West Virginia to be the favorite when the Vegas lines come out, probably by slightly more than the 2.3 points the Strength Power Rating calculates.

Bottom line: It's a tough call between West Virginia's edge in schedule and overall quality, vs. Clemson's late-season push and "First Four" momentum. The tiebreaker goes to experience. West Virginia has players who have been in the tournament the last four years running. They aren't going to get sucker-punched by a Clemson crew who might be satisfied now that they got their win. That's not to say it'll be easy, but the Mountaineers should advance.

Final prediction: West Virginia 62, Clemson 60