2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (5) Vanderbilt vs. (13) Richmond

Vanderbilt Commodores
Seed: 5
Record: 23-10
Conference: SEC

vs.

Richmond Spiders
Seed: 12
Record: 27-7
Conference: Atlantic 10

Date: Thursday, March 17
Time: 4:10 pm Eastern
Location: Denver, CO 
Region: Southwest

 

The third-place team in the Atlantic 10 goes up against the 3rd place team from the SEC East.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Vanderbilt                              Richmond

Power Ratings

Strength:      #22 (#22 of 68)     Strength:      #48 (#43 of 68)
Neutral court: #22                 Neutral court: #50
Injuries Adj:  #23                 Injuries Adj:  #46

Tempo-free:    #27                 Tempo-free:    #44
Offense:       #15                 Offense:       #47
Defense:       #63                 Defense:       #52

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #39            2nd half of season: #57
Last 6 games:       #58            Last 6 games:       #21 

Consistency:        #85            Consistency:        #184
Deep Run Potential: #17            Deep Run Potential: #47
Upset Potential:    #36            Upset Potential:    #48

 

Season overview: Vanderbilt (23-10)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =North Carolina+7, Belmont+9, Marquette+1, Georgia+7, Kentucky+4, @Georgia+8
• Losses to tournament teams (8): =West Virginia-3, @Missouri-OT, @Tennessee-3, @Florida-OT, Tennessee-9, @Kentucky-2, Florida-10, =Florida-11
• Other losses (2): @South Carolina-OT, Arkansas-11

Key Info: Vanderbilt's NCAA first round experience hasn't been good lately. They were upset last year by Murray State as a 4-seed; they didn't go in 2009; and were upset by Siena in 2008, also as a 4-seed. Now a 5-seed, they'll try to get their first tourney win since 2007 against another upset-minded foe who is coming in on a roll. Meanwhile the Commodores have lost four out of their last six games. Will history repeat itself yet again?

Trying his best to prevent that from happening will be guard John Jenkins, who leads the team with a 19.5 point per game scoring clip, along with three others who average double-digits. The team's level of variance from one game to the next isn't great, but it seems that too many in the low range are hitting right now, especially in the last four games. An injury to Jenkins' toe is related to the recent slide, and if it isn't fully healed that's not good news for the Commodores.

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Season overview: Richmond (27-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =Purdue+11, Virginia Commonwealth+12, =Temple+4
• Losses to tournament teams (4): @Old Dominion-7, Bucknell-1, Xavier-23, @Temple-20
• Other losses (3): @Iona-OT, =Georgia Tech-13, Rhode Island-4

Key Info: Richmond was floating along this season, racking up wins while still marred by the occasional poor loss (Xavier by 23, Temple by 20) when suddenly everything clicked in the last seven games and the Spiders played like a top 25 program.

Justin Harper and Kevin Anderson are the team's dynamic duo, and Anderson especially has been on a tear lately, topping 20 points five times in the last seven wins. The Spiders boast four senior starters, all of whom want to get an NCAA tournament win every bit as much as Vanderbilt.

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Game Analysis: I wasn't going to pick an upset here. Vanderbilt is a better team, and isn't very upset-prone, losing only two games to non-tourney teams. Sure, they've done a bit worse in the second half of the season, but so has Richmond overall.

They've lost in first-round upsets the last two times they were here; that doesn't make a third more likely. They are coming into the game on a bad streak, but four games doesn't necessarily mean anything; it could be a statistical fluke, regardless of Jenkins toe, and Vanderbilt could get the first-round win they've been waiting years for. In fact, their consistency of play bodes well for a decent run, to the Sweet Sixteen or beyond.

Vegas Line:

Vanderbilt by  2

Power rating spread

Vanderbilt by  3.5   
 

% Chance to win

Vanderbilt:  61% 
Richmond:    39% 

The oddsmakers think Vandy is ready for a turnaround, and can handle the Spiders. That's what I was going to pick, too. It seems so lame to pick against the Commodores to lose again in the first round; lots of people are probably using Vandy's past against them, so I wasn't going to do it.

Bottom line: But I did. Richmond's last several games are just too consistently good to ignore. Something may have happened here, some change in attitute; either that or it's a random stat fluke. But Vandy is facing their worst string of games at the exact time the Spiders are having their best streak, and bodies in motion tend to follow the same path.

Final prediction: Richmond 67, Vanderbilt 63