Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 5
Record: 22-10
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Utah State Aggies
Seed: 12
Record: 30-3
Conference: WAC
Date: Thursday, March 17
Time: 9:57 pm Eastern
Location: Tucson, AZ
Region: Southeast
Another terrible seeding/matchup job by the committee, and it's on the other side of Wisconsin/Belmont. Kansas State's reward for getting a 5-seed is facing a very tough 30-3 team?
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Kansas St. Utah St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #31 (#30 of 68) Strength: #30 (#29 of 68)
Neutral court: #34 Neutral court: #28
Injuries Adj: #19 Injuries Adj: #28
Tempo-free: #34 Tempo-free: #23
Offense: #58 Offense: #50
Defense: #24 Defense: #15Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #24 2nd half of season: #19
Last 6 games: #26 Last 6 games: #14
Consistency: #219 Consistency: #202
Deep Run Potential: #34 Deep Run Potential: #26
Upset Potential: #32 Upset Potential: #31
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): Gonzaga+17, Kansas+16, Missouri+10, @Texas+5
- Losses to tournament teams (6): Duke-14, @Florida-13, Nevada Las Vegas-4, @Missouri-16, @Texas A&M-8, @Kansas-24
- Other losses (4): @Oklahoma St.-14, Colorado-8, @Colorado-2, =Colorado-12
Key Info: Kansas State started the season at #3 in the polls, started off 9-1, then started losing games in pairs until their spot in the tournament was in question. A strong finish removed all doubt there, and many attribute that to a major change in offense implemented in mid-January. At first it was unfamiliar and resulted in three more losses in four outings, but then the wins started coming.
The loss of two big men was one factor in coach Frank Martin's decision to make the switch. But as it was before the move, guard Jacob Pullen is the offense's leading force, averaging nearly 20 points per game. The team's improvement can be seen in the Second Half ranking of #24, which might be conservative in that it includes some games before (and the rough games immediately after) the switch. In the end, though, they still couldn't beat Colorado on their third try.
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Season overview: Utah St. (30-3)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @Brigham Young-6, @Georgetown-17
- Other losses (1): @Idaho-8
Key Info: Once again, as with Belmont, I fully understand why the committee gave this team a low seed. Few RPI top 100 wins, poor schedule strength, etc. But the Aggies' own RPI was stellar, the equivalent of a 4 or 5 seed, so even by that they deserved better than a 12—even if just to make sure a poor 5-seed doesn't get cheated.
In any case, Utah State is a legit team and has only played better as of late. They haven't played many tournament teams and didn't win against the two they did, but their power rating scores from ours to Sagarin's to Pomeroy's are consistently top 30. Unlike most top teams (who play a lot of home games, skewing their rating if they're significantly better at home), Utah State's neutral court rating is higher than their Strength rating. The Aggies are led by WAC player of the year Tai Wesley.
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Game Analysis: As different as these teams are, and the different seasons they've had, they came out remarkably the same by the numbers. Both are borderline top 25 in Strength, and much improved in more recent play.
If it comes down to schedule strength, Kansas State should win hands down. They've played 10 tournament teams (including two #1 seeds and a 2-seed) and beat four of them. Utah State played two and lost to both. If winning begets winning—and sometimes, oddly enough, it does—then the Aggies have the edge. Teams like Utah State either get lulled into complacency by their easy schedule, or they surprisingly have a lot of punch when confronted by a team that challenges them. Butler's schedule last year was similar to Utah State's this season—a pre-season with a few tough foes, then a long conference season of relative cupcakes. It didn't hurt the Bulldogs too much last year; they ended up beating the Wildcats in the Elite Eight.
Vegas Line:
Kansas State by 2
Power rating spread
Utah State by 0.4
% Chance to win
Kansas State: 49%
Utah State: 51%
The oddsmakers think that schedule strength will win the day, and I don't blame them. The Strength power rating gives Utah State a miniscule edge, however. Other numbers favor Utah State by a bit more, particularly tempo-free analysis which gives it to them by 2 points.
Bottom line: I think Utah State is hungry after two years of losing in the first round. Kansas State's season didn't go the way they wanted, and I don't think they have the confidence to believe they can improve on last year's Elite Eight run. All Utah State needs to do for improvement is win one game—this game.
Final prediction: Utah State 65, Kansas State 63
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