2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (5) Arizona vs. (12) Memphis

Arizona Wildcats
Seed: 5
Record: 27-7
Conference: Pac-10

vs.

Memphis Tigers
Seed: 12
Record: 25-9
Conference: C-USA

Date: Friday, March 18
Time: 2:45 pm Eastern
Location: Tulsa, OK 
Region: West

 

This is at least the second Tigers vs. Wildcats matchup (the other is Kentucky vs. Princeton). There are a lot of Wildcats in the field, at least five, and at least four Tigers. Lots of Bulldogs, too.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Arizona                            Memphis

Power Ratings

Strength:      #20 (#20 of 68)     Strength:      #87 (#51 of 68)
Neutral court: #21                 Neutral court: #91
Injuries Adj:  #18                 Injuries Adj:  #86

Tempo-free:    #17                 Tempo-free:    #86
Offense:       #12                 Offense:       #129
Defense:       #54                 Defense:       #66

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #33            2nd half of season: #78
Last 6 games:       #62            Last 6 games:       #100

Consistency:        #148           Consistency:        #282
Deep Run Potential: #18            Deep Run Potential: #103
Upset Potential:    #25            Upset Potential:    #80

 

Season overview: Arizona (27-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): Northern Colorado+23, UCLA+11, Southern California+9, Washington+1, @Southern California+5
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =Kansas-8, @Brigham Young-22, @Washington-17, @Southern California-8, @UCLA-22, =Washington-OT
• Other losses (1): @Oregon St.-1

Key Info: For much of the year Arizona didn't get any respect, even as they were cruising through the Pac-10 schedule. Part of that was that their non-conference schedule was easy, and part of it was because their conference schedule was easy, too, given that the Pac-10 wasn't at its best this season. But the Wildcats finally won over the naysayers and climbed the polls and secured a high seed in the tournament.

The team has bounced back well from losses, most of the time. The exception was a 22-point loss to UCLA that followed a narrow loss to USC. The Wildcats' star is forward Derrick Williams, a sophomore who averages 19.1 points and 8.1 rebounds, and who could be a breakout star in the tournament.

             **************************************************************
 

Season overview: Memphis (25-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (3): @UAB+OT, @Gonzaga+4, UAB+4
• Losses to tournament teams (3): =Kansas-13, Georgetown-17, @Tennessee-20
• Other losses (6): @Southern Methodist-6, @Marshall-15, Tulsa-3, @Rice-15, @Texas El Paso-27, @East Carolina-11

Key Info: Memphis wasn't in most people's brackets until UAB lost in the C-USA tournament; then the path seemed to clear for the Tigers. But Memphis had a decent résumé before that, having played Kansas, Georgetown, and Tennessee, and defeated Gonzaga on the road.

The Tigers also had a number of bad losses, finishing fourth in their conference, but they got it together late to win the C-USA and get an automatic bid. Will Barton is the team's leading scorer at 12.3 ppg, but after him the balance is amazing, with 8 players ranging from 9.9 down to 6.1 per game.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Scoring balance vs. star player. That's the look of this game as Memphis pits balanced numbers against Zona's Williams, who is the team's leader by nearly 10 points. But that doesn't mean Arizona has no other scorers; 6 others average over 6 points a game.

Ironically both these teams might have peaked in their first games of the season when they monstrously blew out terrible opponents. But Arizona played closer to that peak when the competition tightened, while Memphis couldn't hang with some of the better teams it took on.

Vegas Line:

Arizona by  6

Power rating spread

Arizona by  9.4   
 

% Chance to win

Arizona:   75% 
Memphis:   25% 

12-seeds normally have about a 1 in 3 chance of an upset, so Arizona's 75% chance here makes them look secure, relatively. But the oddsmakers don't give 'Zona nearly as big of a projected margin as our power rating does.

Bottom line: Memphis gets closer to Arizona the more you shift focus to current games. For the 2nd half of the season, they're a 6 point underdog. The last 6 games, a 5-point underdog. The best we can do for them is look at each teams' play during their conference tournament; using those three games each, Memphis is only 1 point worse.

But it's pretty telling that we can't get the Tigers to win any interval. That makes us think the odds are on the Wildcats advancing.

Final prediction: Arizona 73, Memphis 68