2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Belmont

Wisconsin Badgers
Seed: 4
Record: 23-8
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Belmont Bruins
Seed: 13
Record: 30-4
Conference: Atlantic Sun

Date: Thursday, March 17
Time: 7:27 pm Eastern
Location: Tucson, AZ 
Region: Southeast

 

If ever two teams were screwed by a seeding, it's Wisconsin and Belmont. Belmont for getting a 13-seed when they won 30 games and are as good as a 4-5 seed, and Wisconsin for having to play them in the first round.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Wisconsin                              Belmont

Power Ratings

Strength:      #11 (#11 of 68)     Strength:      #19 (#19 of 68)
Neutral court: #14                 Neutral court: #17
Injuries Adj:  #11                 Injuries Adj:  #21

Tempo-free:    #6                  Tempo-free:    #19
Offense:       #2                  Offense:       #28
Defense:       #58                 Defense:       #26

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #7             2nd half of season: #20
Last 6 games:       #35            Last 6 games:       #12

Consistency:        #204           Consistency:        #307
Deep Run Potential: #9             Deep Run Potential: #29
Upset Potential:    #14            Upset Potential:    #16

 

Season overview: Wisconsin (23-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): @Marquette+5, Michigan+16, Illinois+10, Purdue+7, Michigan St.+26, Ohio St.+4, Penn St.+10, @Michigan+1
• Losses to tournament teams (8): @Nevada Las Vegas-3, =Notre Dame-7, @Illinois-8, @Michigan St.-OT, @Penn St.-4, @Purdue-8, @Ohio St.-28, =Penn St.-3
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: When Wisconsin is good, they're very good, as they were when they beat North Carolina State 87-48, Northwestern 78-46, and Michigan State 82-56. But their two most recent games were duds: the Badgers were crushed by Ohio State 93-65, then shot abysmally in a 36-33 loss to Penn State. With these 2 games averaged into their "Last 6" rating, they're only 35th in the country, as opposed to the top ten team they are overall. Which is correct?

Wisconsin has a great one-two punch with Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor, perhaps the best inside-outside threat in the country. Leuer averages 18.6 points and 7.3 rebounds, and Taylor scores 18.0 and adds 4.7 assists. Both are in the top ten of Ken Pomeroy's POY race. But if either or both struggle, as happened in the last two outings, the rest of the team often can't pick up any of the slack. In the Penn State game Leuer and Taylor were a combined 12 of 37, scoring 26 of the team's 33 points.

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Season overview: Belmont (30-4)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @Alabama St.+13
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @Tennessee-9, @Vanderbilt-9, @Tennessee-1
• Other losses (1): @Lipscomb-9

Key Info: It's easy to see by the limited résumé above why Belmont was seeded so low. They were 0-3 against RPI top 50, and 2-0 against 51-100. Their own RPI was just 51, which translates to a 13 seed. But the RPI isn't supposed to be everything. This team won 30 games, and proven ranking systems (Sagarin and Pomeroy) put them in or near the top 25. Would it have killed to bump them up a seed or two? The purpose of seeding is to reward the high seeds, giving them easier paths. Any path that goes through Belmont is not a reward.

The Bruins' style couldn't be more different from Wisconsin's clock-draining, patient, efficient offense. Belmont presses and plays hard, rotating players in and out en masse, with 11 players averaging over 10 minutes per game. Even so, only one of those 11 has missed even a single game. Scoring is thus well distributed, with Ian Clark the leader at 12.4 per game.

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Game Analysis: This game sucks, to put it bluntly. As a round of 32 matchup it's great, but for the opening round it's awful for both teams. Belmont deserves to get at least one win, and they'd have it for sure if they got a slightly better seed. And Wisconsin's reward for a 4-seed season is this?

Not only that, but in the paired bracket are Kansas State and Utah State, another 30-win, strong team that got a terrible seed.

Like many others I was looking forward to making a Belmont "upset" pick if the Bruins were paired with almost anyone else. But Wisconsin has been even better—until the last two games. Belmont played one of their best games of the year at the end while Wisconsin laid two eggs. If that carries over at all the Bruins will get their win.

Vegas Line:

Wisconsin by  4 1/2

Power rating spread

Wisconsin by  2.6   
 

% Chance to win

Wisconsin:   57% 
Belmont:     43% 

Look at the Vegas spreads for the 4 vs. 13 matchups: 13.5, 13.5, 9.5, and this one: 4.5. Which of these is not a well-paired matchup? Our power rating has it a 2 or 3 point game, and I can't argue.

Bottom line: But as much as I wanted to pick a Belmont win, I can't now. Wisconsin is going to have a tough opening game and, if they advance, a tough 2nd round game, but if they can weather that they have potential to go far. As long as the last few games were flukes and not a new trend, I see they Badgers doing well in the tournament, but first they have to survive the Bruins, and there is no guarantee at all. I see the Badgers escaping as a last-second Belmont three-pointer fails.

Final prediction: Wisconsin 66, Belmont 63