2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (4) Texas vs. (13) Oakland

Texas Longhorns
Seed: 4
Record: 27-7
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Seed: 13
Record: 25-9
Conference: Summit

Date: Friday, March 18
Time: 12:15 pm Eastern
Location: Tulsa, OK 
Region: West

 

Another 4 vs. 13 where the 13 is probably underseeded for the team's quality. But Texas is underseeded, too, so it evens out.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Texas                              Oakland

Power Ratings

Strength:      #5 (#5 of 68)       Strength:      #62 (#48 of 68)
Neutral court: #5                  Neutral court: #65
Injuries Adj:  #5                  Injuries Adj:  #61

Tempo-free:    #5                  Tempo-free:    #66
Offense:       #25                 Offense:       #14
Defense:       #1                  Defense:       #202

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #2             2nd half of season: #60
Last 6 games:       #27            Last 6 games:       #37

Consistency:        #174           Consistency:        #102
Deep Run Potential: #5             Deep Run Potential: #58
Upset Potential:    #7             Upset Potential:    #69

 

Season overview: Texas (27-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =Illinois+OT, @North Carolina+2, @Michigan St.+12, Texas A&M+21, @Kansas+11, Missouri+13, @Texas A&M+20, =Texas A&M+12
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =Pittsburgh-2, @Southern California-17, Connecticut-OT, Kansas St.-5, @Kansas-12
• Other losses (2): @Nebraska-3, @Colorado-2

Key Info: If not for the team's late season—slip, I won't call it a slide—Texas would have to be considered one of the favorites for the NCAA title. Ranking #5 across the board, and #2 for the second half of the season, the Longhorns hit some turbulence late and slid from a potential #1 seed in February to a 4-seed in March. It wasn't a slide on par with last year's debacle, but it is perhaps cause for some concern.

In the middle of the season, though, the whole basketball world was abuzz about the Longhorns as they tore through the Big Twelve, especially after they became the first team in eons to beat Kansas in Lawrence. Jordan Hamilton (18.6 ppg) leads a trio of starters who all average over 10 points and 7 rebounds per game. They are also statistically the best defensive team in the country.

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Season overview: Oakland (25-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @Tennessee+7
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @West Virginia-24, @Purdue-15, @Illinois-11, =Michigan St.-1, @Michigan-18, @Ohio St.-29
• Other losses (3): @Wright St.-3, Valparaiso-1, @IUPUI-12

Key Info: Is there a parallel between Oakland of 2011 and Davidson of 2008? There are some similarities: a small-conference team with a double-digit seed, who dominated their conference after struggling with a very tough non-conference schedule. Can the Golden Grizzlies replicate Davidson's Elite Eight run?

There are differences, however. Davidson was a much better team in reality; they were a 10-seed, not a 13; they went undefeated in the Southern Conference whereas Oakland fell to IUPUI in the Summit; they ranked #26, not #62, in the Strength Power Rating; and Oakland doesn't have a Stephen Curry.

They do have center Keith Benson (18.0 ppg, 10.1 reb) and guard Reggie Hamilton (17.4 ppg) leading a balanced, powerful offense, that ranks in the top 20 nationally.

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Game Analysis: There are two interesting aspects to this game. The first is Oakland's great offense against Texas' lockdown defense. The Grizzlies play an up-tempo game while Texas has the best defensive efficiency in the country. Even if that's a stalemate, though, the other side of the coin favors Texas, who has a top 25 offense to Oakland's #200+ defense. This could be a game the Longhorns have to win with offense.

The other aspect involves upset potential, and how much there might be in this game. Oakland isn't Davidson, but they share some similarities. And this year's Texas team isn't last year's model, which dominated for half a season then utterly collapsed, but there were worrying signs at the end. So the question is, how much of Davidson is there in Oakland, and how much of 2010 Texas is there in 2011? Enough of each, and we could have an upset.

Vegas Line:

Texas by  9 1/2

Power rating spread

Texas by  10.8   
 

% Chance to win

Texas:     80% 
Oakland:   20% 

The oddsmakers don't seem to give even a bit of home court advantage to the Longhorns for playing closer to home than Oakland, but it is about 500 miles away so that's understandable. They seem to be giving Oakland some respect, or perhaps docking Texas a bit for the last few weeks. The Strength power rating game-comparison system says Texas wins 4 of 5, which is almost exactly the historical 79% track record of 4-seeds against 13-seeds.

Bottom line: As far as upset potential goes, Oakland doesn't show it with the numbers. They played about the same level early on when they were losing to good teams as they did when they dominated their league, with a slight bump near the end. Unlike Davidson they weren't very competitive with the tough teams early in the year. The one stat that gets us close is very recent play, and Texas is still better there. The Longhorn defense should also negate Oakland's normal offensive advantage.

That doesn't mean the game won't be competitive. Enough of the factors mentioned could come into play to make this one interesting. If I had to pick a 13 to beat a 4, this might be the one, but I don't have any such rule.

Final prediction: Texas 80, Oakland 78