Louisville Cardinals
Seed: 4
Record: 25-9
Conference: Big East
vs.
Morehead State Eagles
Seed: 13
Record: 24-9
Conference: Ohio Valley
Date: Thursday, March 17
Time: 1:40 pm Eastern
Location: Denver, CO
Region: Southwest
It's the Cardinals vs. the Eagles in perhaps the least compelling 4-13 matchup this round.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Louisville Morehead State
Power Ratings
Strength: #12 (#12 of 68) Strength: #104 (#55 of 68)
Neutral court: #13 Neutral court: #104
Tempo-free: #14 Tempo-free: #106
Offense: #36 Offense: #128
Defense: #7 Defense: #90Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #12 2nd half of season: #130
Last 6 games: #3 Last 6 games: #85
Injury adjustment: #13 Injury adjustment: #102
Consistency: #223 Consistency: #130
Deep Run Potential: #10 Deep Run Potential: #98
Upset Potential: #12 Upset Potential: #110
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): Butler+15, Nevada Las Vegas+8, Marquette+1, St. John's+25, West Virginia+1, @Connecticut+OT, Syracuse+4, Connecticut+13, Pittsburgh+OT, =Marquette+25, =Notre Dame+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (7): Kentucky-15, @Villanova-14, @Georgetown-3, @Notre Dame-OT, @Cincinnati-9, @West Virginia-2, =Connecticut-3
- Other losses (2): Drexel-6, @Providence-5
Key Info: Louisville has great guard play, from leading scorer Preston Knowles to dynamic point guard Peyton Siva, and they fought their way to a 12-6 Big East record. The team has battled injuries all year and forward Rakeem Buckles, who missed about half the season, is out with an ACL tear.
Earlier in the season the Cardinals suffered some bad losses, but they stopped having these lapses and lately they've played well even when losing. Despite two losses in their last 6 games, they're playing among the best basketball in the country right now. They're one of the best defensive squads in the nation.
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Season overview: Morehead State (24-9)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @Indiana St.+6
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @Florida-6, @Ohio St.-19
- Other losses (7): @NC Wilmington-2, @Northern Iowa-16, @Tennessee St.-OT, @Austin Peay-OT, @Eastern Illinois-7, Eastern Kentucky-10, @Murray St.-8
Key Info: The Eagles are driven by the performance of big forward Kenneth Faried, who averages 17.6 points per game and an astonishing 14.5 rebounds. . Fellow senior guard Demonte Harper adds 16 points per game and hits 40% of his threes, so Morehead State has legitimate scoring threats inside and out.
This talent didn't translate into very many victories early in the year, but during the Ohio Valley season they hit their stride and added a win over Indiana State in a Bracketbusters game. Against high seeded Florida and Ohio State on the road, the Eagles lost big to the Buckeyes but played the Gators close.
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Game Analysis: Louisville has the advantage, that's easy to say. But how the game will play out is questionable. The Cardinals could come in overconfident, or the presence of Faried could disrupt the game plan of the smaller, guard-centric Louisville squad, who is missing a key big man.
But for all of Faried's rebounding skill (he's #1 in the nation), he's not that huge at 6' 8", 225. And Morehead State, like Louisville, often plays three or more guards at a time, so forward Terrence Jennings might have his hands full with Faried but the matchup won't kill the Cardinals. Meanwhile Louisville's pressure defense will give Morehead State all it can handle.
Vegas Line:
Louisville by 9 1/2
Power rating spread
Louisville by 13.4
% Chance to win
Louisville: 84%
Morehead State: 16%
The sportsbook odds are probably a good modification of the raw power rating result, given that Louisville is still banged up from the Big East tournament and they'll probably get outrebounded in the game.
Bottom line: Louisville advances, and hopes not to have any other players hurt while doing so.
Final prediction: Louisville 70, Morehead State 60
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