Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 4
Record: 25-8
Conference: SEC
vs.
Princeton Tigers
Seed: 13
Record: 25-6
Conference: Ivy League
Date: Thursday, March 17
Time: 2:45 pm Eastern
Location: Tampa, FL
Region: East
Tigers vs. wild cats? Sounds like a mismatch right?
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Kentucky Princeton
Power Ratings
Strength: #6 (#6 of 68) Strength: #105 (#56 of 68)
Neutral court: #8 Neutral court: #108
Tempo-free: #7 Tempo-free: #91
Offense: #8 Offense: #104
Defense: #19 Defense: #86Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #13 2nd half of season: #91
Last 6 games: #10 Last 6 games: #77
Injury adjustment: #6 Injury adjustment: #103
Consistency: #145 Consistency: #94
Deep Run Potential: #6 Deep Run Potential: #94
Upset Potential: #10 Upset Potential: #114
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =Washington+7, Boston University+34, Notre Dame+14, @Louisville+15, Georgia+6, Tennessee+12, Florida+8, Vanderbilt+2, @Tennessee+6, =Florida+16
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =Connecticut-17, @North Carolina-2, @Georgia-7, @Florida-2, @Vanderbilt-4
- Other losses (3): @Alabama-2, @Mississippi-2, @Arkansas-OT
Key Info: Kentucky is one of the better 4-seeds you'll ever find. They're good enough to be a 2-seed according to our power ratings, and if their performance dipped in a mid-season slump, it picked back up as they won their last six games to take the SEC tournament crown.
It's all the more impressive when you consider what they lost from last year's #1 seed team. John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Patrick Patterson were among five (5!) Wildcats taken in the first round. But as he usually does, John Calipari recruited replacements and set about forming another star-studded team; this year freshmen Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, and Doron Lamb are the team's leading scorers.
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Season overview: Princeton (25-6)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =Bucknell+11
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @Duke-37
- Other losses (5): @James Madison-1, =Presbyterian-2, @Central Florida-6, @Brown-10, @Harvard-12
Key Info: All season the Ivy League looked like a 2-team battle, and when Harvard evened the slate and forced a playoff game, it looked like the Crimson would be headed for the NCAA tournament. It even looked that way for most of the playoff game, until the very end when Douglas Davis' shot went in at the buzzer.
Forwards Kareem Maddox and Ian Hummer are twin scoring and rebounding threats for the Tigers, who run a Princeton offense but with a lot of variations and more uptempo play. They aren't afraid to run occasionally, something that helped in the Ivy League but might not against Kentucky. It certainly didn't help against Duke as the Tigers lost 97-60.
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Game Analysis: Princeton is a feel-good story, and it would really become one if they upset the Wildcats in a gutsy comeback like they had against Harvard. But the odds are distinctly against.
They have talent and they've won a lot of games, but they don't compare to Kentucky. Even their weapon which got the team big upset wins in the past—the regimented offense that is named for the team—isn't as big a part of their arsenal any more.
Vegas Line:
Kentucky by 13.5
Power rating spread
Kentucky by 15.0
% Chance to win
Kentucky: 89%
Princeton: 11%
Kentucky is a pretty heavy favorite, as they are a strong 4-seed. Not that Princeton is a weak 13-seed, but they aren't that strong and haven't shown the ability to hang with strong opponents. We give Kentucky about the same spread as the sportsbooks, in the mid-double-digits.
Bottom line: Victories for 4-seeds over 13-seeds aren't uncommon; it happens almost once per year on average. But this doesn't look like a good candidate.
Final prediction: Kentucky 71, Princeton 59
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