Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 3
Record: 25-7
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
St. Peter's Peacocks
Seed: 14
Record: 20-13
Conference: Metro Atlantic
Date: Friday, March 18
Time: 7:20 pm Eastern
Location: Chicago, IL
Region: Southwest
"The Boilermakers vs. the Peacocks. Sounds like a damn monster movie!" —Apollo Creed
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Purdue St. Peter's
Power Ratings
Strength: #8 (#8 of 68) Strength: #139 (#61 of 68)
Neutral court: #7 Neutral court: #136
Injuries Adj: #7* Injuries Adj: #126
Tempo-free: #8 Tempo-free: #144
Offense: #18 Offense: #290
Defense: #6 Defense: #31Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #11 2nd half of season: #97
Last 6 games: #13 Last 6 games: #71
Consistency: #189 Consistency: #248
Deep Run Potential: #8 Deep Run Potential: #149
Upset Potential: #9 Upset Potential: #127
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): Oakland+15, =Indiana St.+13, @Michigan+23, @Penn St.+15, Penn St.+1, Michigan St.+10, @Illinois+11, Wisconsin+8, Ohio St.+13, @Michigan St.+20, Illinois+8
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =Richmond-11, @West Virginia-4, @Ohio St.-23, @Wisconsin-7, =Michigan St.-18
- Other losses (2): @Minnesota-3, @Iowa-2
Key Info: What is it with some of this year's good teams? Their last several games (Pitt and UNC are examples) show a marked decline. For Purdue it's only a couple of games, but coming off their best stretch of the year it was notable. Things only get worse for the team as point guard Kelsey Barlow was suspended from the team. Barlow is the team's #5 scorer (5.1 ave) and started 7 games.
That's not nearly the blow that losing Robbie Hummel was a year ago. The Boilermakers still have JuJuan Johnson and E'Twuan Moore, who average 20.5 and 18.2 ppg, and 8.2 and 5.1 rebounds respectively. Johnson was Big Ten player of the year. But Barlow played almost 20 minutes a game, and his absence will make things harder on Purdue's other guards.
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Season overview: St. Peter's (20-13)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): Long Island+3
- Losses to tournament teams (1): =Old Dominion-7
- Other losses (12): @Robert Morris-25, =Long Beach St.-12, @Seton Hall-20, @Rutgers-3, @Lehigh-13, @Iona-18, @Fairfield-27, Loyola MD-2, @Canisius-14, Fairfield-OT, Iona-14, @Rider-3
Key Info: Look at Purdue's last few games on their chart. Now look at St. Peter's chart. Those last two games by the Peacocks look a whole lot better, right? That is their hope—that Purdue continues to stumble and St. Peter's give their best effort once again.
They seem to be confident that it will happen, too, as the players are talking tough. Whether that's wise or not, we'll see; usually it is not. Looking at the tempo-free numbers, it's clear that the Peacocks win by playing great defense—nearly top 25 quality defense. Their offensive scoring, unlike Purdue's, is spread out among many players, including four in low double-digits.
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Game Analysis: St. Peter's really looks like they can stall Purdue on offense, but will they be able to score a point of their own? Purdue's defense ranks #6 in the nation and the Peacock offense is #290—out of 345 teams. That's not just bad, it's abysmal. If there were an anti-NCAA tournament for the worst squads, St. Peter's offense would be a bubble team.
And having a staunch defense doesn't necessarily mean you can stop great individual players. In some ways it makes their job easier—stop two guys and you've stopped a lot of Purdue's offense. But those guys might be immune to the kinds of things that work so well against Manhattan and Niagara.
Vegas Line:
Purdue by 14
Power rating spread
Purdue by 17.5 w/HC: 21.0
% Chance to win
Purdue: 89% w/HC: 93%
St. Peter's: 11% 7%
If home court advantage is given (they play in nearby Chicago, St. Peter's is from Jersey) Purdue's 93% winning chance is much higher than the usual 3 vs. 14 seed matchup (85%). Vegas seems to discount the home court aspect and gives Purdue just a 14 point edge. This implies that St. Peter's and/or Purdue will continue to play somewhat like they did in their last few outings.
Bottom line: Purdue may be in a slump, or they might have just hit two outlier games in a row. The loss of their backup point guard doesn't help matters. Meanwhile St. Peter's is flying high, and talking tough. The latter usually doesn't work out very well, but Purdue might be distracted by their own problems.
Ultimately, though, Purdue's defense is too good for St. Peter's offense to let me give them a chance. The Boilermakers' guards might get tired without Barlow—after building up a 20 point lead, it could get chipped down as the Peacocks finally start to score in the second half.
Final prediction: Purdue 60, St. Peter's 50
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