Connecticut Huskies
Seed: 3
Record: 26-9
Conference: Big East
vs.
Bucknell Bison
Seed: 14
Record: 25-8
Conference: Patriot
Date: Thursday, March 17
Time: 7:20 pm Eastern
Location: Washington, DC
Region: West
Connecticut tries to build on their 5-day Big East rampage, hoping for 6 wins in the bigger tournament. Bucknell's only hope is that the Huskies are exhausted.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Connecticut Bucknell
Power Ratings
Strength: #16 (#16 of 68) Strength: #103 (#54 of 68)
Neutral court: #16 Neutral court: #102
Injuries Adj: #20 Injuries Adj: #101
Tempo-free: #16 Tempo-free: #99
Offense: #24 Offense: #139
Defense: #29 Defense: #79Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #15 2nd half of season: #101
Last 6 games: #6 Last 6 games: #93
Consistency: #139 Consistency: #178
Deep Run Potential: #15 Deep Run Potential: #105
Upset Potential: #23 Upset Potential: #104
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =Michigan St.+3, =Kentucky+17, @Texas+OT, Villanova+2, Tennessee+11, @Marquette+8, Georgetown+8, @Cincinnati+8, =Georgetown+17, =Pittsburgh+2, =Syracuse+OT, =Louisville+3
- Losses to tournament teams (9): @Pittsburgh-15, @Notre Dame-3, Louisville-OT, Syracuse-8, @St. John's-17, @Louisville-13, Marquette-OT, @West Virginia-9, Notre Dame-3
- Other losses (0):none
Key Info: When Connecticut completed its sweep of 5 games in 5 days to win the Big East tournament, some asked the question: Was this harder than winning the NCAA tournament? It's a fair question, too. UConn beat Depaul, Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville; the last four got a 6, 1, 3, and 4 seed, so if we give DePaul a 14, that's the path a 3-seed might take winning in the Round of 64, 32, Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, and Final Four. So UConn essentially made it to the NCAA finals in 5 days.
Much of the credit can go to Kemba Walker, a Player of the Year candidate who stepped it up big in the conference tournament, averaging 26 points per game over the stretch. How far UConn goes is largely up to him; it's dangerous for a team but also rewarding to rely on one star player so much, but the Huskies have other talent obviously. It's just that Walker's star shines so much brighter you might not see them.
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Season overview: Bucknell (25-8)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): Boston University+3, @Richmond+1
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @Villanova-16, @Marquette-11, =Princeton-11
- Other losses (5): @St. Francis PA-1, @James Madison-10, Wagner-4, @Boston College-4, @Army-20
Key Info: Bucknell got off to a rough start but then they started winning, and winning, and winning some more. This win streak was interrupted by a bizarre, out-of-character 20-point loss to lowly Army, by far the worst game of their season. But they picked right back up and began winning again, all the way to the conference title and NCAA bid. Big man Mike Muscalla leads the team in scoring and rebounds
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Game Analysis: Bucknell was a 14-seed years ago when they upset 3-seed Kansas, but they'll need help to do it again. Fatigue on UConn's part might be their only hope. Given that the Huskies will have had four full days to rest, that's not much to count on.
Vegas Line:
Connecticut by 10 1/2
Power rating spread
Connecticut by 11.3
% Chance to win
Connecticut: 79%
Bucknell: 21%
The game-comparison odds give Bucknell a fighting chance at 1 in 5, and the Strength Power rating and Vegas oddsmakers show just over a 10 point differential.
Bottom line: The Huskies might suffer a bit of a letdown after their incredible tournament run, but it won't be enough for Bucknell to claim another huge upset.
Final prediction: Connecticut 71, Bucknell 61
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