Brigham Young Cougars
Seed: 3
Record: 30-4
Conference: Mountain West
vs.
Wofford Terriers
Seed: 14
Record: 21-12
Conference: Southern
Date: Thursday, March 17
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Location: Denver, CO
Region: Southeast
BYU gets to play fairly close to home in Denver, Colorado, and of course they must play on Thursday since they can't play Sundays, one of those quirks associated with the school—along with their Honor Code that got a key player suspended late in the season. The Terriers hope to capitalize.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Brigham Young Wofford
Power Ratings
Strength: #9 (#9 of 68) Strength: #92 (#53 of 68)
Neutral court: #6 Neutral court: #90
Injuries Adj: #77 Injuries Adj: #91
Tempo-free: #11 Tempo-free: #90
Offense: #10 Offense: #42
Defense: #27 Defense: #200Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #9 2nd half of season: #75
Last 6 games: #45 Last 6 games: #29
Consistency: #309 Consistency: #266
Deep Run Potential: #11 Deep Run Potential: #104
Upset Potential: #5 Upset Potential: #87
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): Utah St.+6, Arizona+22, @Nevada Las Vegas+12, San Diego St.+13, Nevada Las Vegas+14, @San Diego St.+13
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @UCLA-7, =San Diego St.-18
- Other losses (2): @New Mexico-9, New Mexico-18
Key Info: BYU wasn't a very consistent team even before Brandon Davies got suspended from the squad (they only found out he had violated the school's honor code—for having sex—because he got a girl pregnant). Since his suspension started, BYU has played their two worst games of the season and three of their 10 lowest-rated. This doesn't bode well for a long tourney run.
But they still have Jimmer. Fredette is averaging a nation-leading 28.5 points per game and had 52 against New Mexico, a game in which BYU finally beat the Lobos after losing both at home and on the road. The Cougars beat San Diego State at home and on the road by 13 both times before falling in the Mountain West final by 18. The Cougars' performances are all over the place, but until recently they played either good or great games; without Davies, "poor" has been added to the mix.
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Season overview: Wofford (21-12)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =George Mason+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @Clemson-8, =Georgetown-15, @Xavier-OT, @Virginia Commonwealth-9
- Other losses (8): @Minnesota-14, Air Force-OT, @South Carolina-11, =Cornell-6, College of Charleston-4, Furman-OT, @College of Charleston-25, Davidson-9
Key Info: Anyone think Wofford isn't a team capable of taking advantage of BYU's woes? Then check out the last several games on the chart above. Compare them to BYU's recent play. The Terriers can contend! The competition wasn't great but Wofford won their last five games by 41, 14, 13, 14, and 10 points, and every game was on the road or on a neutral court. They beat a respectable Charleston team to win the Southern conference crown.
Forward Noah Dahlman leads the Terriers with a 20 point average, but more important than offense will be their ability to stop Fredette; on that score, they might be out of luck, ranking just 200th in defensive efficiency.
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Game Analysis: Over just the past few games (5 or 6) Wofford has been a better team than BYU. Over the entire season, BYU has been far, far better. The question is: how much of a difference did losing Brandon Davies make? And, will it have as big of an effect against Wofford as it seemed to against TCU and SDSU?
BYU's inherent performance fluctuations revealed themselves in two games against New Mexico, one in which they were blown out at home, and another that they dominated. Both were played withouth Davies. So while the team isn't what it used to be, they're still capable of beating good teams—Fredette just has to score.
Vegas Line:
Brigham Young by 8
Power rating spread
Brigham Young by 13.6
% Chance to win
Brigham Young: 81%
Wofford: 19%
The Vegas line is very interesting, clearly reflecting an adjustment for both teams' recent play. Normally we'd see a near-14 point spread and BYU wins at least 4 out of 5 tries. Go back just a few weeks, before the Davies scandal, back when BYU had just defeated San Diego State for the 2nd time and was riding high with hopes of a 1-seed? They'd be over 16 point favorites. The spread has essentially been cut in half in a few weeks.
Bottom line: However, let's be real about Wofford's defense. Are they capable of shutting down Fredette? I don't think so. I'm not high on BYU's odds for a deep tourney run, but I think this will be one of BYU's high-outlier games, and the Cougars win the same way they would have been expected to weeks ago.
Final prediction: BYU 85, Wofford 69
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