San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 2
Record: 32-2
Conference: Mountain West
vs.
Northern Colorado Bears
Seed: 15
Record: 21-10
Conference: Big Sky
Date: Thursday, March 17
Time: 4:40 pm Eastern
Location: Tucson, AZ
Region: West
Battle of the Greenhorns: Northern Colorado has been a proper Division I team for just five years; meanwhile San Diego State is chasing their first ever NCAA tournament win.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
San Diego State Northern Colorado
Power Ratings
Strength: #10 (#10 of 68) Strength: #124 (#59 of 68)
Neutral court: #11 Neutral court: #123
Injuries Adj: #10 Injuries Adj: #110
Tempo-free: #9 Tempo-free: #119
Offense: #22 Offense: #110
Defense: #5 Defense: #132Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #6 2nd half of season: #117
Last 6 games: #5 Last 6 games: #102
Consistency: #87 Consistency: #26
Deep Run Potential: #7 Deep Run Potential: #97
Upset Potential: #15 Upset Potential: #156
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): @Gonzaga+3, UC Santa Barbara+26, Nevada Las Vegas+6, @Nevada Las Vegas+6, @Nevada Las Vegas+2, =Brigham Young+18
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @Brigham Young-13, Brigham Young-13
- Other losses (0):none
Key Info: San Diego State finally got over the hump against BYU in the last game of the season. Before that it looked like they'd fall to a clean sweep against Fredette and company, but with the Cougars' Brandon Davies out it was no contest, and the Aztecs beat their rivals as badly as they'd been handled in the previous two matchups.
And with that, the team has avenged all their losses. Their slate of wins is extensive but limited to lower-seeded teams and UNLV three times, so they still have a lot to prove in the tournament. All-American candidate Kawhi Leonard averages a double-double at 15.4/10.4 per game, while Malcolm Thomas is close and DJ Gay is in double figures in scoring. Coach Steve Fisher is a tournament veteran, having led Michigan to a national title in 1989 after taking over the team from Bill Frieder in the postseason.
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Season overview: Northern Colorado (21-10)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @Arizona-23, @Illinois-10
- Other losses (8): @Santa Clara-3, =Valparaiso-15, @Denver-3, @Colorado St.-14, @Louisiana Monroe-3, @Weber St.-1, @Northern Arizona-11, @Montana-13
Key Info: Northern Colorado's résumé doesn't quite match up to San Diego State's, but they do have a decent winning streak going and have won 17 of their last 20 games. They've got one of the nation's leading scorers in Devon Beitzel, who isn't quite a Jimmer Fredette but manages over 21 points per game.
The team's performances are fairly predictable, however; we'd like to see some startling lows and corresponding unexplained highs from this team if we want to give them any chance to have an outlier game and pull off the upset. Alas, it doesn't seem likely, but don't tell the Bears' coach, B.J. Hill, who at 36 is one of the nation's youngest head coaches going up against the 65-year-old Frieder.
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Game Analysis: San Diego State really is one of the best teams in the country. And Northern Colorado...is one of the better programs in the state of Colorado. 15-seeds have upset 2-seeds in the past, but only 4 times out of 104 tries, and there was never any rhyme or reason to those wins despite what some have tried to argue. The 2-seeds weren't weak, and the 15-seeds weren't particularly strong; something just happened.
Given that, Northern Colorado has as good of a shot as any previous 15-seed.
Vegas Line:
San Diego State by 15 1/2
Power rating spread
San Diego State by 15.5
% Chance to win
San Diego State: 90%
Northern Colorado: 10%
The Strength Power Rating and the oddsmakers agree on a 15 1/2 point spread, and our game-rating comparisons give the Bears a decent 10% shot at an upset. That's a lot higher than the historical 2 vs. 15 odds of just under 4%.
Bottom line: San Diego State might even have a bit of home court advantage for the location, which should tip them to beat the spread, but I think Northern Colorado will give it a spirited try while the Aztecs are over-pumped about getting their first tournament win. Not enough to put them in danger of losing, but just enough to keep them honest.
Final prediction: San Diego State 74, Northern Colorado 59
I'm from SD so I'm based but my guess is on San Diego State all the way for the win!
*** record scratch sound ****
wow, seriously? are spammers so lazy they post on events that happened 3 months ago?
Your URL was removed. Better luck next time for you and the Aztecs as well....
Posted by: San Diego New Homes | June 24, 2011 at 03:33 PM