2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (2) Notre Dame vs. (15) Akron

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Seed: 2
Record: 26-6
Conference: Big East

vs.

Akron Zips
Seed: 15
Record: 23-12
Conference: MAC

Date: Friday, March 18
Time: 1:40 pm Eastern
Location: Chicago, IL 
Region: Southwest

 

Notre Dame didn't get the 1-seed many thought they had wrapped up, but they get to play close to home.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Notre Dame                         Akron

Power Ratings

Strength:      #14 (#14 of 68)     Strength:      #140 (#62 of 68)
Neutral court: #15                 Neutral court: #140
Injuries Adj:  #9                  Injuries Adj:  #125

Tempo-free:    #12                 Tempo-free:    #130
Offense:       #3                  Offense:       #160
Defense:       #61                 Defense:       #116

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #8             2nd half of season: #133
Last 6 games:       #2             Last 6 games:       #193 

Consistency:        #246           Consistency:        #244
Deep Run Potential: #13            Deep Run Potential: #148
Upset Potential:    #13            Upset Potential:    #129

 

Season overview: Notre Dame (26-6)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =Georgia+OT, =Wisconsin+7, Indiana St.+9, Gonzaga+4, Georgetown+14, Connecticut+3, St. John's+15, Cincinnati+8, Marquette+5, @Pittsburgh+5, Louisville+OT, Villanova+21, @Connecticut+3, =Cincinnati+38
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @Kentucky-14, @Syracuse-12, @Marquette-22, @St. John's-18, @West Virginia-14, =Louisville-OT
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Notre Dame really only had one bad stretch, and it lasted for all of two games: when they fell to Marquette and St. John's on the road by 22 and 18 points. The Irish were missing Carlton Scott during that stretch, hence the #9 Injury Adjustment ranking. They recovered quickly with a 7-game winning streak, and finished strong with an off-the-charts win over Cincinnati followed by an overtime loss to Louisville. Overall the Irish beat 14 tournament teams.

Ben Hansbrough is the team leader; he's come along way from being Tyler's little brother whose biggest news was transferring from Mississippi State to join the Irish. Averaging 18.5 points per game and 4.3 assists, he was named the Big East player of the year, pretty impressive considering his competition included Kemba Walker.

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Season overview: Akron (23-12)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =Arkansas Little Rock+14
• Losses to tournament teams (1) @Temple-35
• Other losses (11): @Dayton-8, Cleveland St.-13, @Minnesota-8, =Miami FL-8, Ohio-9, @Buffalo-3, @Miami OH-8, @Northern Illinois-9, @Eastern Michigan-4, @Ohio-25, @Kent St.-11

Key Info: Akron only beat 1 tournament team to Notre Dame's 14, but they had a seven-game stretch of play that any team would envy, punctuated by a game that would have beat almost any team—including Notre Dame almost any day of the week. They beat Bowling Green on the road, 89-54, and while the Falcons aren't Ohio State, beating any team on the road by 35 is impressive.

The Zips balanced attack is led by three scorers just above double figures and three more just under that mark, so there isn't anywhere for an opponent to focus their defense; stop one player and another steps up. For all that balance, however, the Zips are better on defense than offense.

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Game Analysis: The 2 vs. 15 matchups always beg the question, will this be #5? Four times, a 15-seed has defeated a 2-seed. As I've said before, however, those four didn't really follow any pattern. Obviously the 2-seeds were overconfident, but realistically every 2-seed probably goes in overconfident, and they've still won 100 out of 104.

Notre Dame has been playing very well lately, and Akron has won 11 of its last 13. Akron's one hope is to play as well as they did when they beat Bowling Green by 35. Then they can hang with the Irish, whose defense could be bothered by Akron's balanced offense.

Vegas Line:

Notre Dame by  13 1/2

Power rating spread

Notre Dame by  15.5   
 

% Chance to win

Notre Dame:   88% 
Akron:        12% 

Vegas likes the Irish by a couple of touchdowns, and our power rating gives them a couple more points. Akron's 12% chance to win is amped up by that one game which gives them about 2.5% on its own.

Bottom line: Yes Akron beat Bowling Green by 35. But Notre Dame beat Cincinnati by 38. So if both teams play to their peaks, a la those two games, the Irish win by around 19. It might not be that bad, but then again it could be worse if the Zips have a subpar game. I'll go with the odds and pick the Irish by a comfortable margin.

Final prediction: Notre Dame 78, Akron 61