Florida Gators
Seed: 2
Record: 26-7
Conference: SEC
vs.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
Seed: 15
Record: 18-13
Conference: Big West
Date: Thursday, March 17
Time: 6:50 pm Eastern
Location: Tampa, FL
Region: Southeast
Will this be the most competitive 2 vs. 15 in the tournament? Probably not, since Florida is playing close to home in Tampa while the Gauchos are traveling across three time zones.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Florida UC Santa Barbara
Power Ratings
Strength: #28 (#27 of 68) Strength: #126 (#60 of 68)
Neutral court: #26 Neutral court: #127
Injuries Adj: #26 Injuries Adj: #127
Tempo-free: #22 Tempo-free: #121
Offense: #23 Offense: #137
Defense: #42 Defense: #111Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #21 2nd half of season: #152
Last 6 games: #7 Last 6 games: #99
Consistency: #284 Consistency: #182
Deep Run Potential: #35 Deep Run Potential: #128
Upset Potential: #21 Upset Potential: #121
- Wins vs. tournament teams (13): Morehead St.+6, @Florida St.+4, Kansas St.+13, @Xavier+4, @Tennessee+OT, @Georgia+OT, Vanderbilt+OT, Kentucky+2, Tennessee+1, Georgia+9, @Vanderbilt+10, =Tennessee+11, =Vanderbilt+11
- Losses to tournament teams (3): Ohio St.-18, @Kentucky-8, =Kentucky-16
- Other losses (4): @Central Florida-3, Jacksonville-OT, South Carolina-3, @Mississippi St.-7
Key Info: Those who were shocked by Florida's 2-seed should look at that top bullet point—Florida has 13 wins over tournament teams. Sure, they don't rank well in power ratings, but the committee doesn't use them. They won a lot of close games that could just as easil have been losses—but again, not something the committee cares about. And they had some bad losses, but wins are what matters most in the end.
The team—led by guards Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton—was hitting its stride late when they fell apart against Kentucky. This follows that pattern of unpredictability (if that makes any sense) that has plagued the Gators and makes us question whether they can put together a Final Four run. They're vulnerable to being upset, but if they clear the early hurdles they can beat a better team. They'll have to, to make it very far, as they rank only as good as a 6 or 7 seed for the complete season.
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Season overview: UC Santa Barbara (18-13)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @Nevada Las Vegas+6
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @San Diego St.-26
- Other losses (13): =North Dakota St.-8, @Oregon-2, @Portland-12, Long Beach St.-16, @Pacific-3, @Cal St. Fullerton-5, Cal St. Northridge-1, Pacific-6, @UC Irvine-3, Boise St.-OT, @Cal St. Northridge-8, @Long Beach St.-18
Key Info: A win over UNLV and a loss to SDSU is the sum total of UC Santa Barbara's experience against NCAA tourney teams this year. Luckily for the Gauchos, Florida is about similar in quality to UNLV, not fellow 2-seed San Diego State. UCSB beat the Rebels in Las Vegas, too, so the Tampa setting doesn't make a Florida win a given.
Forwards Orlando Johnson and James Nunnally handle most of the scoring for the Gauchos, combining for 37.5 points per game. They've put together a solid last four games or so—each better than the Gators' last performance.
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Game Analysis: Florida really is a poor 2-seed. Not because of their résumé of wins—that's solid. They rank 4th in RealWins, which adds up a team's significant wins and disregards losses, which is pretty much what the selection committee does. No, their deficiency is in actual performance; they are just 28th in our Strength rating, and 19th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings (which weigh recent games more).
This gives the Gauchos a fighting chance to pull off the upset. The problem is, the game is being played in Tampa, which may give the Gators some home court advantage.
Vegas Line:
Florida by 12 1/2
Power rating spread
Florida by 14.7
% Chance to win
Florida: 83%
UC Santa Barbara: 17%
Vegas seems to add in about a point of home court advantage, as the Strength rating spread is about 11.3 without it and 14.7 with. Interestingly, even with home court designation, Florida is only an 83% favorite, suggesting that in six plays UC Santa Barbara would win once. Put in perspective, that's 17 times per 104 plays, whereas 15-seeds have won only 4 times in 104 tries.
Bottom line: I'm not going against a 2-seed; I wouldn't unless I really thought the 15-seed was the better team, or had a fairly solid chance of pulling off the upset. Here it's not so much Florida playing close to home as it is UCSB playing far from home that makes the upset unlikely. But that doesn't mean it can't be a good game.
Final prediction: Florida 68, UC Santa Barbara 62
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