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Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 1
Record: 30-4
Conference: ACC
vs.
Hampton Pirates
Seed: 16
Record: 24-8
Conference: Mid-Eastern
Date: Friday, March 18
Time: 3:10 pm Eastern
Location: Charlotte, NC
Region: West
Everyone wants to know if Kyrie Irving is going to play for Duke. In this game, it's not going to matter.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Duke Hampton
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 (#2 of 68) Strength: #225 (#66 of 68)
Neutral court: #2 Neutral court: #230
Injuries Adj: #2 (1*) Injuries Adj: #224
Tempo-free: #2 Tempo-free: #224
Offense: #6 Offense: #301
Defense: #3 Defense: #96Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #5 2nd half of season: #256
Last 6 games: #9 Last 6 games: #190
Consistency: #115 Consistency: #83
Deep Run Potential: #1 Deep Run Potential: #210
Upset Potential: #3 Upset Potential: #232
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): Princeton+37, =Marquette+5, @Kansas St.+14, Michigan St.+5, =Butler+12, UAB+21, North Carolina+6, Temple+17, Clemson+11, =North Carolina+17
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @Florida St.-5, @St. John's-15, @North Carolina-14
- Other losses (1): @Virginia Tech-4
Key Info: Nolan Smith is a player of the year candidate, averaging 21.3 points per game, 5.2 assists, and nearly 5 rebounds. Kyle Singler is of course one of college ball's top players; he adds 17.1 with 7 rebounds. But the one they miss is Kyrie Irving. Irving played only 8 games, averaging 17.4 points and 5 assists before injuring his toe.
If not their best player, Duke was certainly better with him. Not that they're terrible without him; they've gone 22-4 since then and won the ACC tournament, nabbing a top seed in the Big Dance. With him, however, they rate as the best team in the country, and possibly the tourney favorite. Recently he's been warming up, and Duke Coach Mike K. has hinted he could be back in the first game. Which suggests that he'll certainly be available if Duke gets past the first round.
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Season overview: Hampton (24-8)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =Boston University+1
- Losses to tournament teams (0): none
- Other losses (7): @Wake Forest-7, Delaware-2, @San Francisco-12, @Morgan St.-10, @Florida A&M-4, @North Carolina A&T-11, Bethune Cookman-OT, Florida A&M-3
Key Info: Believe it or not, 16-seed Hampton can claim a better winning percentage against tournament teams than Duke. That's because they've only played one, and they beat fellow 16-seed Boston University by one point. Maybe that's why they avoided the play-in game—not that facing Duke right away is any better.
The Pirates of course are one of the famous and few teams to have upset a 2-seed as a 15-seed, when they beat Iowa State in 2001. They're looking to become the very 1st 16-seed to do the same to a 1-seed, but they've got their work cut out for them. Guards Darrion Pellum and Kwame Morgan II both average over 15 points for Hampton.
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Game Analysis: Not much to say here; not only is Duke far and away the better team, but they're playing close to home in North Carolina. Hampton isn't that far away (Virginia), but Duke will have a lot of fans in the stands (though UNC plays there, too, so there will be anti-Duke fans as well).
Vegas Line:
Duke by 22 1/2
Power rating spread
Duke by 27.6
% Chance to win
Duke: 98%
Hampton: 2%
Our odds (no home court granted) give Hampton a 2% chance, fair odds for a 16-seed. At the same time the average margin is over 25, and well over what the oddsmakers are going with. At these levels the spread is a joke, since the end of the game can change score by 10 points if one team is well ahead and puts scrubs in for the opportunity to say they played in an NCAA game.
Bottom line: Duke wins big. The good Blue Devil teams tend to win by a lot in the first game.
Final prediction: Duke 84, Hampton 53
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Duke did even better than that. Both offense and defense: 87-45. Irving is back.
There is no stopping them now
Posted by: Blue Devils Repeat | March 18, 2011 at 05:11 PM