2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (3) Syracuse vs. (11) Marquette

Syracuse Orange
Seed: 3
Record: 27-7
Conference: Big East

vs.

Marquette Golden Eagles
Seed: 11
Record: 21-14
Conference: Big East

Date: Sunday, March 20
Time: 7:45 pm Eastern
Location: Cleveland, OH 
Region: East

 

The 2nd Big East vs. Big East matchup in the Round of 32.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Syracuse                           Marquette

Power Ratings

Strength:      #13 (#13 of 68)     Strength:      #29 (#28 of 68)
Neutral court: #9                  Neutral court: #29
Injuries Adj:  #12                 Injuries Adj:  #29

Tempo-free:    #13                 Tempo-free:    #29
Offense:       #19                 Offense:       #17
Defense:       #13                 Defense:       #70

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #9             2nd half of season: #30
Last 6 games:       #4             Last 6 games:       #53

Consistency:        #331           Consistency:        #133
Deep Run Potential: #19            Deep Run Potential: #24
Upset Potential:    #6             Upset Potential:    #38

 

Season overview: Syracuse (27-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =Michigan+3, Michigan St.+14, Notre Dame+12, @St. John's+17, Cincinnati+15, @Connecticut+8, West Virginia+11, @Villanova+5, @Georgetown+7, @St. John's+6, =Indiana St.+17
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @Pittsburgh-8, Villanova-11, @Marquette-6, Georgetown-8, @Louisville-4, =Connecticut-OT
• Other losses (1): Seton Hall-22

Key Info: Syracuse rocketed to an 18-0 start but immediately fell into a pit, losing four straight in increasingly disturbing fashion. A meltdown appeared to be coming. But they busted out of that with a huge win over UConn, and later went on a six-game win streak including a 107-59 splattering of DePaul. This year they lost the (single) overtime game to UConn in the Big East tournament, but considering how bad it almost got in the middle, they finished the season well.

Kris Joseph leads in scoring (14.4 ppg) and Rick Jackson is huge on the boards (10.6 per game) but its Scoop Jackson that makes the team go, with 5.8 assists per game to go with his 12.8 points. Bustling with talent, the team has been undermined by inconsistency as we've seen. When they're bad, things go wrong, but when they're good, they're as good as anyone. Jackson had 23 against Indiana State.

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Season overview: Marquette (21-14)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): Bucknell+11, West Virginia+5, Notre Dame+22, Syracuse+6, @Connecticut+OT, =West Virginia+6, =Xavier+11
  
• Losses to tournament teams (13): =Duke-5, =Gonzaga-3, Wisconsin-5, @Vanderbilt-1, @Pittsburgh-8, @Louisville-1, @Notre Dame-5, Connecticut-8, @Villanova-5, @Georgetown-9, St. John's-12, Cincinnati-7, =Louisville-25
• Other losses (1): @Seton Hall-13

Key Info: Marquette has probably lost to more tournament teams than any other tournament team. They've also won six games against the field, for a remarkable 19 games total. A lot of that is due to being in the Big East with 10 other bids, of course.

The Eagles were lucky to get here, and it didn't always look likely. But they beat some big opponents down the stretch to make it happen. And a lot of those losses—7 to be exact—were by 5 or fewer points. But teams like Marquette who score well in power ratings but have a lot of losses tend to be unpredictable, and that's certainly the case here. They rank #326 in consistency of play, so they could upset a lot of teams, or be upset themselves. Just like the last game, as the lower seed here, that might be good news. Darius Johnson-Odom hit 19 against Xavier.

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Game Analysis: Syracuse had no trouble against a 14-seed and now, instead of a 6-seed they face an 11-seed. But they know that's not really an advantage, as the Orange lost to Marquette in the teams' only meeting this year.

Vegas Line:

Syracuse by  4 1/2

Power rating spread

Syracuse by  3.8   
 

% Chance to win

Syracuse:     60% 
Marquette:    40% 

Syracuse is a slim favorite to win the rematch of their earlier-season encounter.

Bottom line: Picking Xavier over Marquette was the only first-round pick I had big reservations about. I had a strong feeling that Marquette might get to the Sweet Sixteen. Now that they beat Xavier, I think they're going to do it. It's an upset, but the Eagles have defeated Syracuse once, so it's not too much of a stretch.

Final prediction: Marquette 76, Syracuse 73