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Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 3
Record: 26-7
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Seed: 11
Record: 25-11
Conference: Colonial Athletic
Date: Sunday, March 20
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Location: Chicago, IL
Region: Southwest
VCU is already the surprise team of the tournament with two wins, having dispatched USC and Georgetown.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Purdue VCU
Power Ratings
Strength: #8 (#8 of 68) Strength: #89 (#52 of 68)
Neutral court: #7 Neutral court: #86
Injuries Adj: #7* Injuries Adj: #93
Tempo-free: #8 Tempo-free: #83
Offense: #18 Offense: #64
Defense: #6 Defense: #131Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #10 2nd half of season: #73
Last 6 games: #16 Last 6 games: #38
Consistency: #189 Consistency: #98
Deep Run Potential: #8 Deep Run Potential: #81
Upset Potential: #9 Upset Potential: #103
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): Oakland+15, =Indiana St.+13, @Michigan+23, @Penn St.+15, Penn St.+1, Michigan St.+10, @Illinois+11, Wisconsin+8, Ohio St.+13, @Michigan St.+20, Illinois+8, =St. Peter's+22
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =Richmond-11, @West Virginia-4, @Ohio St.-23, @Wisconsin-7, =Michigan St.-18
- Other losses (2): @Minnesota-3, @Iowa-2
Key Info: What is it with some of this year's good teams? Their last several games (Pitt and UNC are examples) show a marked decline. For Purdue it's only a couple of games, but coming off their best stretch of the year it was notable. Things only get worse for the team as point guard Kelsey Barlow was suspended from the team. Barlow is the team's #5 scorer (5.1 ave) and started 7 games.
That's not nearly the blow that losing Robbie Hummel was a year ago. The Boilermakers still have JuJuan Johnson and E'Twuan Moore, who average 20.5 and 18.2 ppg, and 8.2 and 5.1 rebounds respectively. Johnson was Big Ten player of the year. But Barlow played almost 20 minutes a game, and his absence will make things harder on Purdue's other guards. It didn't matter against St. Peter's as Johnson had a "double 16"—16 points, 16 rebounds—to carry the Boilermakers.
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Season overview: Virginia Commonwealth (25-11)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =UCLA+4, Wofford+9, @Old Dominion+9, George Mason+16, =Southern California+13, =Georgetown+18
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =Tennessee-5, @Richmond-12, @UAB-3, Old Dominion-11, George Mason-20, Old Dominion-5
- Other losses (5): @South Florida-OT, @Georgia St.-10, @Northeastern-11, @Drexel-4, James Madison-3
Key Info: After last night, VCU has defeated both UCLA and USC as well as conference-mates Old Dominion and George Mason. They lost to Tennessee, and fell to 12-seed play-in UAB. The win over USC was just as solid as the upset of George Mason two games earlier, and their win over Georgetown is probably their best win yet.
The Rams hit their stride in the middle of the season, building up a good case for the CAA to have three selections, only to see that argument crumble by the season's end as they lost 6 of their last 11 games. Still, they'd achieved enough goodwill to be one of the last four in. VCU tries to harass teams with full court pressure, but their poor defensive efficiency suggests that if teams are able to get into the half-court they are having success. On offense four Rams average double figures; Jamie Skeen had 16 against USC and Joey Rodriguez had 17 against the Hoyas.
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Game Analysis: VCU has played two of its best games in the tournament so far. This balances some of their poor games prior to the tournament. Coupled with their earlier win over George Mason, have they hit a new level that can challenge Purdue?
Both their wins so far can be "discounted" though. USC's coach was embattled at the time (see Tennessee vs. Michigan for an example of what that can do to a team). And Georgetown's Chris Wright had just come back from a 4-game absence where the team was helpless. If they beat Purdue, the loss of Barlow could discount that win, too, but I think we'd have to take the Rams completely seriously if they win this one.
Vegas Line:
Purdue by 9
Power rating spread
Purdue by 13
% Chance to win
Purdue: 83%
VCU: 17%
We see the decrease from the full-season power rating to the Vegas line, a difference of 4 points, partially due to Barlow's loss, but more to VCU's surge.
Bottom line: If you look at VCU's recent play, it appears they're either going to play another great game and beat Purdue, or fade back to normal and lose by about 10. I knew that VCU had a shot against Georgetown so that win didn't surprise; this one would, but I won't be surprised if it's close.
Final prediction: Purdue 71, VCU 68
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