2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (3) Connecticut vs. (6) Cincinnati

Connecticut Huskies
Seed: 3
Record: 27-9
Conference: Big East

vs.

Cincinnati Bearcats
Seed: 6
Record: 26-8
Conference: Big East

Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 9:40 pm Eastern
Location: Washington, DC 
Region: West

 

Thanks to the NCAA's bracketing, this is the first of two Round of 32 Big East matchups.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Connecticut                        Cincinnati

Power Ratings

Strength:      #16 (#16 of 68)     Strength:      #26 (#25 of 68)
Neutral court: #16                 Neutral court: #25
Injuries Adj:  #20                 Injuries Adj:  #33

Tempo-free:    #16                 Tempo-free:    #25
Offense:       #24                 Offense:       #53
Defense:       #29                 Defense:       #14

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #11            2nd half of season: #28
Last 6 games:       #3             Last 6 games:       #19

Consistency:        #139           Consistency:        #322
Deep Run Potential: #15            Deep Run Potential: #38
Upset Potential:    #23            Upset Potential:    #19

 

Season overview: Connecticut (27-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): =Michigan St.+3, =Kentucky+17, @Texas+OT, Villanova+2, Tennessee+11, @Marquette+8, Georgetown+8, @Cincinnati+8, =Georgetown+17, =Pittsburgh+2, =Syracuse+OT, =Louisville+3, =Bucknell+29
  
• Losses to tournament teams (9): @Pittsburgh-15, @Notre Dame-3, Louisville-OT, Syracuse-8, @St. John's-17, @Louisville-13, Marquette-OT, @West Virginia-9, Notre Dame-3
• Other losses (0):none

Key Info: When Connecticut completed its sweep of 5 games in 5 days to win the Big East tournament, some asked the question: Was this harder than winning the NCAA tournament? It's a fair question, too. UConn beat Depaul, Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville; the last four got a 6, 1, 3, and 4 seed, so if we give DePaul a 14, that's the path a 3-seed might take winning in the Round of 64, 32, Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, and Final Four. So UConn essentially made it to the NCAA finals in 5 days.

Much of the credit can go to Kemba Walker, a Player of the Year candidate who stepped it up big in the conference tournament, averaging 26 points per game over the stretch. How far UConn goes is largely up to him; it's dangerous for a team but also rewarding to rely on one star player so much, but the Huskies have other talent obviously. It's just that Walker's star shines so much brighter you might not see them. Walker led with 18 against Bucknell.

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Season overview: Cincinnati (26-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): Xavier+20, @St. John's+2, Louisville+9, @Georgetown+12, @Marquette+7, Georgetown+22, =Missouri+15
  
• Losses to tournament teams (8): @Villanova-11, @Syracuse-15, @Notre Dame-8, West Virginia-11, @Pittsburgh-12, St. John's-2, Connecticut-8, =Notre Dame-38
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Cincinnati was one of several undefeated teams that made it past 10-0, and 12-0, before most started falling by the wayside with their first loss. Even at 12-0 the Bearcats weren't afforded much respect due to their weak non-conference schedule, but when they won their first two Big East games and beat Xavier, they foreshadowed that they were at least somewhat for real. Losses ensued, but Cincy finished a respectable 9-7 in the tough Big East and scored big late wins against Marquette, Georgetown, and South Florida before being destroyed in their worst performance of the year against Notre Dame.

Cincinnati features balanced scoring, with Yancy Gates and Dion Dixon both just barely above 10 ppg. Gates missed one game, but otherwise their top 9 players played all 33 games, all averaging more than 10 minutes. Cincy's defense is among the best in the country. Gates and Dixon had 18 and 16 in the solid win over Missouri.

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Game Analysis: Both these teams had fantastic opening games, but Connecticut has had six fantastic games in a row.

After winning the Big East, you'd have to assume they should beat Cincy.

Vegas Line:

Connecticut by  3 1/2

Power rating spread

Connecticut by  1.6   
 

% Chance to win

Connecticut:  54% 
Cincinnati:   46% 

The oddsmakers give UConn a bit more of an advantage than the Strength Power Rating, which is due to UConn's fantastic recent play.

Bottom line: It would almost be unfortunate if UConn got upset. They won their tournament and Cincinnati got killed by Notre Dame, so the Huskies might do the same thing. There's also the chance that fatigue could catch up to UConn suddenly. But they're playing like a Final Four team lately, so we'll take them to advance in the Round of 32.

Final prediction: Connecticut 68, Cincinnati 60