Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Seed: 2
Record: 27-6
Conference: Big East
vs.
Florida State Seminoles
Seed: 10
Record: 22-10
Conference: ACC
Date: Sunday, March 20
Time: 9:40 pm Eastern
Location: Chicago, IL
Region: Southwest
Notre Dame has a top five offense in terms of efficiency, while FSU has a corresponding top five defense.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Notre Dame Florida State
Power Ratings
Strength: #14 (#14 of 68) Strength: #39 (#36 of 68)
Neutral court: #15 Neutral court: #39
Injuries Adj: #9 Injuries Adj: #39
Tempo-free: #12 Tempo-free: #46
Offense: #3 Offense: #156
Defense: #61 Defense: #2Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #6 2nd half of season: #32
Last 6 games: #1 Last 6 games: #42
Consistency: #246 Consistency: #9
Deep Run Potential: #13 Deep Run Potential: #22
Upset Potential: #13 Upset Potential: #57
- Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =Georgia+OT, =Wisconsin+7, Indiana St.+9, Gonzaga+4, Georgetown+14, Connecticut+3, St. John's+15, Cincinnati+8, Marquette+5, @Pittsburgh+5, Louisville+OT, Villanova+21, @Connecticut+3, =Cincinnati+38, =Akron+13
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @Kentucky-14, @Syracuse-12, @Marquette-22, @St. John's-18, @West Virginia-14, =Louisville-OT
- Other losses (0): none
Key Info: Notre Dame really only had one bad stretch, and it lasted for all of two games: when they fell to Marquette and St. John's on the road by 22 and 18 points. The Irish were missing Carlton Scott during that stretch, hence the #9 Injury Adjustment ranking. They recovered quickly with a 7-game winning streak, and finished strong with an off-the-charts win over Cincinnati followed by an overtime loss to Louisville. Overall the Irish beat 14 tournament teams before the tournament started.
Ben Hansbrough is the team leader; he's come along way from being Tyler's little brother whose biggest news was transferring from Mississippi State to join the Irish. Averaging 18.5 points per game and 4.3 assists, he was named the Big East player of the year, pretty impressive considering his competition included Kemba Walker. He led with 15 against the Zips.
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Season overview: Florida State (22-11)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): Clemson+6, Duke+5, =Texas A&M+7
- Losses to tournament teams (6): Florida-4, Ohio St.-14, =Butler-3, @Clemson-18, @North Carolina-20, North Carolina-2
- Other losses (2): @Auburn-5, @Virginia Tech-12, @Maryland-16, =Virginia Tech-1
Key Info: FSU's chart could easily be interchanged for A&Ms. The Seminoles play roughly at the same level. Their average is a bit better than the Aggies', but they don't hit quite as high. The Duke win (game 17) was their peak, in terms of accomplishment and gameplay.
Chris Singleton is the team's only double-digit scorer, and he's been out for the last six games (7 counting the game during which he was hurt). Surprisingly they've played quite well, at #46 instead of #39, despite his absence. Maybe it's because offense isn't that important to FSU; as the #2 defensive team in the country and #156 offensive team, losing a top scorer isn't a death sentence. They did, however, lose three of the six games without him, and in two of them, a 3-point basket would have been the difference. Singleton did return for the Texas A&M game, but he played just 16 minutes and scored 5 points. He should be a bit better in his second game back.
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Game Analysis: 10-seeds do quite well against 2-seeds, much better than 7-seeds do, winning 41% of all matchups. Florida State is the kind of team that makes a Sweet Sixteen run while the Irish could be vulnerable to being upset due to their erratic game-to-game play.
It's clear which side of the court the better play will happen: Notre Dame's. That's where the Irish will be running their offense against FSU's defense, and both teams play at a top five level in that situation. When FSU has the ball, their #156 offense will be squaring off against Notre Dame's #61 defense.
Vegas Line:
Notre Dame by 4 1/2
Power rating spread
Notre Dame by 5.1
% Chance to win
Notre Dame: 65%
Florida St: 35%
The oddsmakers agree with our power rating, and the game-comparison system yields results similar to how 10-seeds normally do against 2-seeds.
Bottom line: Florida State has a defense that could bottle up Notre Dame's efficient offense. Their problem, as usual, is getting enough offense going themselves. The Seminoles rarely play out of their heads; you can see on their chart that their performances just don't reach a super-high level, and they're in the top ten in consistency.
The one time they've moved above the three-quarters mark is when they beat Duke (by 5 points, at home). They aren't at home here while Notre Dame is close to home, and the Seminoles are not a good road team. FSU is basically dependent on Notre Dame having a bad game on defense. Neither end result would surprise me but given that I don't feel strongly either way I'll go with the Irish.
Final prediction: Notre Dame 70, FSU 64
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