2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (1) Ohio State vs. (8) George Mason

Ohio State Buckeyes
Seed: 1
Record: 33-2
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

George Mason Patriots
Seed: 8
Record: 27-6
Conference: Colonial Athletic

Date: Sunday, March 20
Time: 5:15 pm Eastern
Location: Cleveland, OH 
Region: East

 

George Mason needed a big comeback to beat Villanova and it only gets harder from here.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Ohio St.                           George Mason

Power Ratings

Strength:      #1 (#1 of 68)       Strength:      #36 (#33 of 68)
Neutral court: #1                  Neutral court: #36
Injuries Adj:  #1                  Injuries Adj:  #36

Tempo-free:    #1                  Tempo-free:    #30
Offense:       #1                  Offense:       #31
Defense:       #9                  Defense:       #46

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #1             2nd half of season: #19
Last 6 games:       #2             Last 6 games:       #62

Consistency:        #226           Consistency:        #197
Deep Run Potential: #2             Deep Run Potential: #36
Upset Potential:    #1             Upset Potential:    #40

 

Season overview: Ohio St. (33-2)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (17): @Florida+18, Morehead St.+19, @Florida St.+14, NC Asheville+47, Oakland+29, @Michigan+4, Penn St.+3, @Illinois+5, Purdue+23, Michigan+9, Michigan St.+10, Illinois+19, @Penn St.+21, Wisconsin+28, =Michigan+7, =Penn St.+11, Texas San Antonio+29
  
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @Wisconsin-4, @Purdue-13
• Other losses (0):none

Key Info: Ohio State just keeps winning, like an unstoppable machine, beating an outrageous total of 16 games against tournament teams. Sure, they dropped two games on the road—to 4-seed Wisconsin and 3-seed Purdue, both of whom played their best games of the season—but in general the team seems to have no flaws, or its flaws just don't matter.

The Buckeyes were faulted for not having a true point guard, but no one's exploited that yet. Jared Sullinger, a freshman, gets most of the attention but the Buckeyes are loaded with experience: Starters Jon Diebler, Dallas Lauderdale, and David Lighty are all seniors, and William Buford is a junior. Some say the wealth of supporting talent kept Sullinger from winning Big Ten player of the year, but in reality it's exactly what made him Big Ten Freshman of the year. Sullinger averages 17.2 points and 10.1 rebounds per game; he had 11 and 9 against UTSA while the others handled the scoring.

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Season overview: George Mason (27-6)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (3): Old Dominion+17, @Virginia Commonwealth+20, =Villanova+4
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): =Wofford-OT, @Old Dominion-4, @Virginia Commonwealth-16
• Other losses (3): =North Carolina St.-13, @Dayton-6, @Hofstra-13

Key Info: George Mason really hit its stride in January and February. Like many teams that do, they couldn't quite maintain that level and dipped at the end, including a bad performance in a loss to VCU in the Colonial tournament. Their bad play continued against Villanova until they forged a late comeback and won.

While the Patriots would love to repeat their Final Four run of five years ago, they won't fly under anyone's radar this time around. They come in 26-6, which is only a bit better than their 2006 record of 23-7, but instead of an 11-seed they are an 8. In 2006 they didn't meet a 1-seed until the Elite Eight, which demonstrates what Nate Silver was saying in the New York Times about 8 and 9 being a worse seed to get than 10 or 11.

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Game Analysis: Ohio State wins any time-frame comparison we can come up with. George Mason's ray of light is OSU's last four games, which have been decent but not overwhelmingly great. They still outclass the Patriots' recent 4-game run, as that includes their VCU dud.

Does OSU also get home court edge? They're in-state, but George Mason isn't that far away if you consider distance of the road team to be important.

Vegas Line:

Ohio State by 11

Power rating spread

Ohio St. by  11.5 (15.0 w/home court) 

% Chance to win

Ohio St.:     79%  w/home court: 85% 
George Mason: 21%                15% 

And the oddsmakers seem to be discounting home court, since it matches our power rating numbers. For the UTSA game we didn't add an Ohio State home court edge and we got the 29 point spread correct, so maybe we should use that again.

Bottom line: No Cinderalla run in the works this time. We could give the benefit of the doubt to George Mason by using their last 18 games, but like we said, that still doesn't get them there. If we add home court advantage it goes back to 11 points anyway, and maybe that's how the oddsmakers get their number. It keeps coming back to 11, so we'll go with that.

Final prediction: Ohio State 74, George Mason 63