2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (1) Kansas vs. (9) Illinois

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 33-2
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Illinois Fighting Illini
Seed: 9
Record: 20-13
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Sunday, March 20
Time: 8:40 pm Eastern
Location: Tulsa, OK 
Region: Southwest

 

Will Illinois have another hot shooting night and challenge the Jayhawks?

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Kansas                             Illinois

Power Ratings

Strength:      #3 (#3 of 68)       Strength:      #17 (#17 of 68)
Neutral court: #3                  Neutral court: #18
Injuries Adj:  #3                  Injuries Adj:  #16

Tempo-free:    #3                  Tempo-free:    #18
Offense:       #5                  Offense:       #32
Defense:       #8                  Defense:       #21

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #5             2nd half of season: #20
Last 6 games:       #14            Last 6 games:       #18

Consistency:        #295           Consistency:        #66
Deep Run Potential: #4             Deep Run Potential: #12
Upset Potential:    #2             Upset Potential:    #29

 

Season overview: Kansas (33-2)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =Arizona+8, UCLA+1, =Memphis+13, Southern California+2, @Michigan+OT, Kansas St.+24, Missouri+17, Texas A&M+13, @Missouri+4, Texas+12, =Boston University+19
  
• Losses to tournament teams (2): Texas-11, @Kansas St.-16
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: The Jayhawks looked unstoppable early on, wiping the floor with teams both good and bad. They came back down to earth against the Pac-10, however, beating UCLA and USC at home by just 3 points total. That home vulnerability foreshadowed their first defeat in Allen Fieldhouse in 69 games against Texas. They later lost to K-State on the road, but that was it for losses, and they later avenged the Texas defeat.

The Morris twins—Morris and Markieff—lead the Jayhawks in scoring and rebounding at 17.3/7.2 and 13.6/8.2 apiece. Guards Tyrel Reed and Tyshawn Taylor contribute outside play, but freshman Josh Selby seems to do more harm than good sometimes as he shoots just 38.2%. Selby is the anti-Kyrie Irvin; Kansas' first several games without him rate higher than those after he joined the team. The Morris twins combined for 31 against Boston U.

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Season overview: Illinois (20-13)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): North Carolina+12, @Gonzaga+12, Oakland+11, Northern Colorado+10, Wisconsin+8, Michigan St.+9, Penn St.+17, Michigan+2, =Nevada Las Vegas+11
  
• Losses to tournament teams (10): =Texas-OT, =Missouri-11, @Penn St.-2, @Wisconsin-10, Ohio St.-5, Purdue-11, @Michigan St.-4, @Ohio St.-19, @Purdue-8, =Michigan-5
• Other losses (3): =Illinois Chicago-3, @Indiana-3, @Northwestern-1

Key Info: In some ways Illinois is the Marquette of the Big Ten. They've faced a total of 18 tournament foes, just one fewer than Marquette even though the conference has 4 fewer. Like the Eagles the Illini lost a lot of games while retaining high marks in power ratings. This wasn't really for losing close games, but for beating so many good opponents, many by double figures. Their consistency rating, unlike Marquette's, is high.

Which is surprising considering how erratic Illinois is shooting the ball. They hit 67% against Iowa and 71% against Northwestern, but a week later shot 30% at Wisconsin (whom they shot 56% against two weeks earlier). The Illini have played well in the Big Ten but haven't won two games in a row since January 6th.

Demetri McCamey is still one of the country's best guards, and the Illini have good inside play with Mike Davis and 7' 1" Mike Tisdale, so they can't be counted out. No one's paying any attention to Illinois right now, and there's always one "forgotten" team that makes a run. The team shot nearly 60% against UNLV, resulting in an easy win, with Davis and McCamey combining for 39.

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Game Analysis: If Illinois shoots the ball well they can beat Kansas. They have the inside height to deal with the Morris twins and their guard play is solid, too. It all comes down to them hitting their shots.

Kansas is a top ten defensive team and, more importantly, they're 14th in opponent field goal percentage at Ken Pomeroy's site. Since Illinois is an unpredictable shooting team, it stands to reason that Kansas' defense will nudge them toward a lower percentage.

Vegas Line:

Kansas by  8

Power rating spread

Kansas by  7.2 

% Chance to win

Kansas:      70% 
Illinois:    30% 

The numbers suggest a fairly close game with Kansas the favorite as expected. Illinois' 30% odds by the game-comparison system are far higher than 9-seeds accomplish against 1-seeds (7%), and more in line with 8-seeds' odds (19%).

Bottom line: When I picked Illinois in the first round I saw this as a compelling game if the Illini became hot, and they did against UNLV. They match up well against Kansas and can beat anybody if they shoot the ball well. But I'm leading toward Kansas fighting off a tough Illini surge. Even without the 9-seed curse making an upset unlikely, Illinois hasn't put together two winning games in a row since January 6th. Chances are Kansas' defense does enough to keep the Illini at bay.

Final prediction: Kansas 76, Illinois 72