2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (1) Duke vs. (8) Michigan

Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 1
Record: 31-4
Conference: ACC

vs.

Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 8
Record: 21-10
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Sunday, March 20
Time: 2:45 pm Eastern
Location: Charlotte, NC 
Region: West

 

Unlike UNC and Washington, both Duke and Michigan dominated their first round games in Charlotte. With the "Fab Five" documentary playing on ESPN, this matchup's historical significance will be noted, with a young Michigan team taking on a (relative to these time) veteran Duke squad 19 years later.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Duke                               Michigan

Power Ratings

Strength:      #2 (#2 of 68)       Strength:      #43 (#38 of 68)
Neutral court: #2                  Neutral court: #41
Injuries Adj:  #1                  Injuries Adj:  #42

Tempo-free:    #2                  Tempo-free:    #42
Offense:       #6                  Offense:       #55
Defense:       #3                  Defense:       #41

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #2             2nd half of season: #23
Last 6 games:       #5             Last 6 games:       #9

Consistency:        #115           Consistency:        #55
Deep Run Potential: #1             Deep Run Potential: #31
Upset Potential:    #3             Upset Potential:    #53

 

Season overview: Duke (31-4)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): Princeton+37, =Marquette+5, @Kansas St.+14, Michigan St.+5, =Butler+12, UAB+21, North Carolina+6, Temple+17, Clemson+11, =North Carolina+17, Hampton+42
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @Florida St.-5, @St. John's-15, @North Carolina-14
• Other losses (1): @Virginia Tech-4

Key Info: Nolan Smith is a player of the year candidate, averaging 21.3 points per game, 5.2 assists, and nearly 5 rebounds. Kyle Singler is of course one of college ball's top players; he adds 17.1 with 7 rebounds. But the one they miss is Kyrie Irving. Irving played only 8 games, averaging 17.4 points and 5 assists before injuring his toe.

If not their best player, Duke was certainly better with him. Not that they're terrible without him; they've gone 22-4 since then and won the ACC tournament, nabbing a top seed in the Big Dance. With him, however, they rate as the best team in the country. Irving scored 16 points in his return as Duke dominated Hampton; they're certainly one of the tournament favorites now.

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Season overview: Michigan (21-13)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): @Clemson+8, Oakland+18, Penn St.+7, @Michigan St.+4, @Penn St.+3, Michigan St.+7, =Illinois+5, =Tennessee+30
  
• Losses to tournament teams (9): =Syracuse-3, Purdue-23, @Wisconsin-16, Kansas-OT, Ohio St.-4, @Ohio St.-9, @Illinois-2, Wisconsin-1, =Ohio St.-7
• Other losses (4): =Texas El Paso-9, @Indiana-19, @Northwestern-14, Minnesota-5

Key Info: The key to Michigan's season was overcoming a six-game slump that happened right in the middle. From that point on they've played at a consistently high level, win or lose, and it got them into the tournament at a very forgiving seed. The team had shown flashes of greatness before that. They nearly beat Syracuse, then in back to back games they took Kansas into overtime and lost to Ohio State by 4 points. After those losses they played their three worst games before recovering to win 9 of their last 13 (now 10 of 14).

Darius Morris leads the team in scoring at 15.2, and Tim Hardaway, Jr.—one of the three "NBA sons" on the roster—is second averaging 13.9. Michigan played an incredible 2nd half and overall the best game of their season as they routed Tennessee 75-45.

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Game Analysis: Both teams come in on a high note. Duke played two great back-to-back games and Michigan had their best game of the season. They'll try to carry that momentum into this game.

Vegas Line:

Duke by  11 1/2

Power rating spread

Duke by  15.5 

% Chance to win

Duke:      91% 
Michigan:   9% 

Our 15.5 point spread doesn't do Michigan justice, as their last 14 games have been uniformly solid. But it also uses a Duke estimate that's low now that Irving is back. Duke's odds of winning fall to around 77% when Michigan's recent numbers are used. Either way it should be a lot closer than the 71-51 result from 1992's national championship game.

Bottom line: Michigan wants to continue their momentum from the Tennessee win. But I think it's momentum they'll carry into next season after giving Duke a tough game. If Irving weren't back, the Wolverines would have a chance of pulling off the upset, but I think that window closed with his return.

Final prediction: Duke 73, Michigan 63