2011 NCAA Tournament Play-In Round Previews, Odds, and Predictions: USC vs. VCU

Southern Cal Trojans
Seed: 11
Record: 19-14
Conference: Pac-10

vs.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Seed: 11
Record: 23-11
Conference: Colonial Athletic

Date: Wednesday, March 16
Time: 9:00 pm Eastern
Location: Dayton, OH 
Region: Southwest

 

The best of the play-in games features two teams that many didn't expect in the tournament (VCU was one of our only two "misses"). The winner faces 6-seed Georgetown.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Southern California                Virginia Commonwealth

Power Ratings

Strength:      #47 (#42 of 68)     Strength:      #89 (#52 of 68)
Neutral court: #48                 Neutral court: #86

Tempo-free:    #48                 Tempo-free:    #83
Offense:       #75                 Offense:       #64
Defense:       #32                 Defense:       #131

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #45            2nd half of season: #88
Last 6 games:       #23            Last 6 games:       #76
Injury adjustment:  #35            Injury adjustment:  #93

Consistency:        #299           Consistency:        #98
Deep Run Potential: #60            Deep Run Potential: #81
Upset Potential:    #39            Upset Potential:    #103

 

Season overview: Southern California (19-14)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): Texas+17, @Tennessee+1, UCLA+11, Arizona+8, @Washington+2
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @Kansas-2, Washington-OT, @Arizona-9, @UCLA-14, Arizona-5
• Other losses (9): Rider-20, =Bradley-1, @Nebraska-2, @Texas Christian-12, @Oregon-6, @Oregon St.-4, California-2, Oregon-10, @Washington St.-8

Key Info: Southern Cal has had an up-and-down year and their consistency rank (#299) shows it. From this number we project that the Trojans can't avoid a disastrous game long enough to threaten a deep tourney run (this is compounded by the team's lack of depth), but have a good chance of pulling off an upset or two. Among the big names they've conquered are 4-seed Texas, 5-seed Arizona, and 7-seeds Washington and UCLA, and they also beat fellow giant-killer Tennessee.

That said, they also fell to Rider (by 20), to piss-poor Bradley, and to TCU who had one single win in Mountain West conference play. They played a very tough schedule overall and got it together enough late to make it into the tournament. Generally the team's play improved a lot when transfer Jio Fontan became eligible and even more when he was moved to point guard. The team is led in scoring and rebounding by Montenegran (Montenegranian?) Nikola Vucevic, who averages a double-double.

             **************************************************************
 

Season overview: Virginia Commonwealth (23-11)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =UCLA+4, Wofford+9, @Old Dominion+9, George Mason+16
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =Tennessee-5, @Richmond-12, @UAB-3, Old Dominion-11, George Mason-20, Old Dominion-5
• Other losses (5): @South Florida-OT, @Georgia St.-10, @Northeastern-11, @Drexel-4, James Madison-3

Key Info: VCU's win résumé isn't quite as impressive as USC's, but they did beat UCLA, and conference-mates Old Dominion and George Mason both ended up with decent seeds. They lost their game with Tennessee, and fell to 12-seed play-in UAB.

The Rams hit their stride in the middle of the season, building up a good case for the CAA to have three selections, only to see that argument crumble by the season's end as they lost 6 of their last 11 games. Still, they'd achieved enough goodwill to be one of the last four in. VCU tries to harass teams with full court pressure, but their poor defensive efficiency suggests that if teams are able to get into the half-court they are having success. On offense four Rams average double figures.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: This is a pretty straightforward game. The team's offenses are roughly equivalent, but USC has a huge defensive advantage. As long as USC can handle the press adequately on offense, their own defense should carry the day. In addition, the team is going in the right direction in the last few months, making the adjustments needed to improve from their early-season funk. They're still unpredictable, but more often on the upside. Meanwhile VCU is mired in poor play—save for their huge win over George Mason, which is the reason why they're here.

The wild card, however, is USC's coach. Kevin O'Neill was involved in a (drunken?) confrontation with an Arizona booster the night before the Trojans were to play the Wildcats. Suspended by USC for the game, O'Neill has been contrite and was reinstated. The question is, how will the team respond? Will it be a distraction, and have they lost respect for their coach? Does it matter? The team certainly played a lot worse against Arizona than they did against Cal the night before.

Vegas Line:

USC by 4.5

Power rating spread

USC by 5.6   
 

% Chance to win

USC: 67% 
VCU: 33% 

The sportsbooks still favor the Trojans, as does our main power rating, which gives USC exactly a 2 to 1 chance of beating the Rams.

Bottom line: I see a hard-fought game as VCU's style disrupts USC's offense somewhat, while the Trojan defense holds the Rams in check, too. The team may have a hangover from O'Neill's actions, too, but if they can get past this one they have a good chance of upsetting Georgetown.

Final prediction: USC 63, VCU 62