Texas San Antonio Roadrunners
Seed: 16
Record: 19-13
Conference: Southland
vs.
Alabama State Hornets
Seed: 16
Record: 17-17
Conference: SW Athletic
Date: Wednesday, March 16
Time: 6:30 pm Eastern
Location: Dayton, OH
Region: East
The other 16-seed play-in game, featuring the two worst teams in the tournament.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Texas San Antonio Alabama State
Power Ratings
Strength: #235 (#67 of 68) Strength: #306 (#68 of 68)
Neutral court: #235 Neutral court: #302
Tempo-free: #231 Tempo-free: #302
Offense: #210 Offense: #322
Defense: #255 Defense: #235Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #225 2nd half of season: #284
Last 6 games: #197 Last 6 games: #175
Injury adjustment: #234 Injury adjustment: #239
Consistency: #7 Consistency: #245
Deep Run Potential: #201 Deep Run Potential: #315
Upset Potential: #266 Upset Potential: #303
- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (0): none
- Other losses (13): @Evansville-4, @UC Riverside-7, Samford-1, @Tulsa-25, @Bowling Green-11, @Oklahoma St.-16, Sam Houston St.-3, Stephen F. Austin-9, @Sam Houston St.-21, @Southeastern Louisiana-6, @Stephen F. Austin-4, @Nicholls St.-2, @Texas St.-2
Key Info: One bright spot for UTSA is that they haven't lost to any teams in the NCAA field. Of course that's because they haven't played any—all 13 of their losses are to non-tourney teams (though some are in the lesser tournaments). The Roadrunners were consistently mediocre all year until they won five straight at the end, including the Southland Conference title game.
Devin Gibson leads a team with three double-figure scorers and only one senior—Gibson himself. The point guard averages 17.0 points per game and over 5 rebounds and assists.
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Season overview: Alabama State (17-17)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (0):
- Losses to tournament teams (1): Belmont-13
- Other losses (16): @Creighton-14, @Iowa St.-27, @Northern Arizona-28, @Loyola Chicago-28, @Central Florida-36, @Tulane-15, @Arkansas St.-24, @Mississippi St.-21, @Southern Methodist-11, Jackson St.-OT, @Mississippi Valley St.-4, @Alabama A&M-15, Southern-12, @Prairie View A&M-8, @Texas Southern-14, @Grambling-1
Key Info: The Hornets didn't beat any tournament teams either, but they did play Belmont, and it wasn't that bad. In fact, it was the best they did when losing. The worst was on January 22 when they lost to Southern—arguably the nation's worst team—at home.
But that was in the middle of the season when Alabama State was losing to everyone in sight. Pretty soon they started playing much better, and winning, coming up victorious in 11 or their last 12 games. Therein lies the Hornets' chance to match up with the Roadrunners—they are playing their best basketball right now, completely unlike their terrible early-to-mid season form. It's perhaps no coincidence that this corresponds to Tramayne Moorer's rejoining the team for good in February.
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Game Analysis: UTSA ranks #7 in consistency out of 345 teams, which likely means it's significant. They did a little better the 2nd half of the season, and a bit better still in their tournament run, but overall with UTSA what you see is what you get.
Alabama State is a different team than the one that stumbled through November, December, and January. Tramayne Moorer was granted a 6th year of eligibility mid-season, but injuries plagued him until February when he commenced to become the team's leading scorer and rebounder. As he's gotten healthier, the Hornets have gotten better, and are good enough to compete in this game.
Vegas Line:
Texas San Antonio by 4
Power rating spread
Texas San Antonio by 6.1
% Chance to win
Texas San Antonio: 69%
Alabama State: 31%
The sportsbooks see UTSA winning this game, as does the Strength Power Rating, which gives the Roadrunners a few extra points and a nearly 7 in 10 chance of coming home winners.
Bottom line: However...I think Alabama State will get the upset. They aren't the same team that lost to Southern, and dropped 10 of their first 12 games. When Moorer plays, Alabama State is just as good as Texas San Antonio, and they're on as much of a roll or more than the Roadrunners. Also, the Hornets are the closest thing we have to a team with a losing record in the field, and those teams seem to thrive in the 16-seed matchups. Alabama State in a close one.
Final prediction: Alabama State 70, Texas San Antonio 68
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