2011 NCAA Tournament Play-In Round Previews, Odds, and Predictions: Clemson vs. UAB

Clemson Tigers
Seed: 12
Record: 21-11
Conference: ACC

vs.

Alabama-Birmingham Blazers
Seed: 12
Record: 22-8
Conference: C-USA

Date: Tuesday, March 15
Time: 9:00 pm Eastern
Location: Dayton, OH 
Region: East

 

Tuesday's other "First Four" game should be of a lot more interest to casual fans, but is by no means a marquee matchup. The winner moves into the Round of 64 against 5-seed West Virginia.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Clemson                            UAB

Power Ratings

Strength:      #35 (#32 of 68)     Strength:      #65 (#50 of 68)
Neutral court: #35                 Neutral court: #64

Tempo-free:    #35                 Tempo-free:    #61
Offense:       #78                 Offense:       #69
Defense:       #12                 Defense:       #59

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #17            2nd half of season: #67
Last 6 games:       #15            Last 6 games:       #63
Injury adjustment:  #34            Injury adjustment:  #64

Consistency:        #72            Consistency:        #42
Deep Run Potential: #25            Deep Run Potential: #50
Upset Potential:    #45            Upset Potential:    #76

 

Season overview: Clemson (21-11)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (2): Wofford+8, Florida St.+18
• Losses to tournament teams (7): =Old Dominion-1, Michigan-8, @Florida St.-6, @North Carolina-10, North Carolina-2, @Duke-11, @North Carolina-OT
• Other losses (4): @South Carolina-4, @Maryland-2, @Virginia-2, @North Carolina St.-8

Key Info: Clemson has three scorers who average double figures, including Demontez Stitt and Jerai Grant, seniors who have seen the Tigers lose in the first round for three straight years. Senior motivation is a powerful force in the tournament, and they know that this is also their best shot for a victory.

And the way Clemson's been playing recently, they could go a lot farther. Don't let their 8-7 finish fool you; the Tigers have been steadily improving this year and rank #17 in our power rating for the second half of the season. Their improving play and good level of consistency makes it less likely that they'll be upset by an inferior team—like UAB. They are also a defense-focused squad, ranking nearly in the top ten in defensive efficiency.

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Season overview: UAB (22-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (1): Virginia Commonwealth+3
• Losses to tournament teams (4): @Georgia-2, @Duke-21, Memphis-OT, @Memphis-4
• Other losses (4): @Arizona St.-3, @Tulsa-16, Southern Mississippi-4, =East Carolina-OT

Key Info: Does UAB have something to prove? Can it motivate them to play up an extra level? The Blazers may need it to beat Clemson. Though they've already shown they can beat a tournament team (VCU, another of the play-in teams), that's their only noteworthy victory, though they played Memphis close twice and nearly beat Georgia.

UAB lost by more than 4 points only twice, and overall they show very high consistency, making high or low peaks on their charts rare. They match Clemson with three players averaging in double digits, with Jamaar Sanders the scorer (17.7 ppg), Cameron Moore the rebounder (9.4/g), and Aaron Johnson the assist-machine (7.7/g).

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Game Analysis: Both teams pride themselves on their defense, but it's really no comparison—Clemson's D is far and away better. UAB's core trio is going to face a tough challenge when playing offense.

Of course it always depends on which teams show up. In this game, their appears to be less doubt than normal. Both teams play pretty consistent basketball. UAB rarely plays out of their heads, and neither does Clemson. The difference is that Clemson has been playing better lately, both over the last several games and for the last few months. UAB has been about the same as they've been all year.

Vegas Line:

Clemson by 4 1/2

Power rating spread

Clemson by  3.6   
 

% Chance to win

Clemson:   64% 
UAB:       36% 

Vegas agrees that the Tigers have the advantage, and by a little bit more than the Strength Power Rating foresees. But that rating includes all games of the season equally; weighted toward more recent games, Clemson's ranking would be closer to where Ken Pomeroy has them (#24), and for the second half of the year they rank #17. This would increase the 3.6 point spread and and 64% chance of winning that the basic power rating gives the Tigers.

Bottom line: If UAB really translates the chip on their shoulder into better basketball, they could find themselves winning this game. But Clemson has a strong motivation—three years of futility—to perform well, too. Odds are these teams do what they've been doing the last few months, and Clemson comes out on top.

Final prediction: Clemson 61, UAB 54