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North Carolina Asheville Bulldogs
Seed: 16
Record: 19-13
Conference: Big South
vs.
Arkansas Little Rock Trojans
Seed: 16
Record: 19-16
Conference: Sun Belt
Date: Tuesday, March 15
Time: 6:30 pm Eastern
Location: Dayton, OH
Region: Southeast
The tournament kicks off with one of the four "play-in" games, or "First Four" as the NCAA would like you to call them. This is one of two play-in games featuring 16-seeds; in other words, lambs being prepared for the slaughter.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
UNC Asheville Arkansas Little Rock
Power Ratings
Strength: #150 (#63 of 68) Strength: #216 (#65 of 68)
Neutral court: #150 Neutral court: #216
Tempo-free: #149 Tempo-free: #207
Offense: #203 Offense: #202
Defense: #102 Defense: #227Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #147 2nd half of season: #213
Last 6 games: #84 Last 6 games: #159
Injury adjustment: #175 Injury adjustment: #214
Consistency: #320 Consistency: #183
Deep Run Potential: #182 Deep Run Potential: #217
Upset Potential: #116 Upset Potential: #209
- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none.
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @North Carolina-11, @Georgetown-15, @Ohio St.-47
- Other losses (10): @Furman-2, @South Carolina Upstate-OT, @High Point-3, Virginia Military Inst-11, Liberty-4, Coastal Carolina-21, @Liberty-OT, Winthrop-4, @Charleston Southern-9, Northeastern-1
Key Info: UNC Asheville plays respectable defense, as shown by their near-top-100 tempo-free figures. Their offense isn't much to crow about, however. Their chart also jibes with a few of the other power rating numbers: their consistency is very poor, so their play is all over the place, but in the last several games they've put together a string of wins with consistent, improving performance.
If the Bulldogs play their best they could beat a 13 or 14 seed, so a fellow 16 seed is no problem if they're "on." Guards Matt Dickey and JP Primm get the most minutes and points, but it's the team's defense that got them here. Leading rebounder DJ Cunningham is supposed to be back for the tournament, but they won the Big South tournament without him and the injury adjustment thinks they're just as good without him—probably because even when he's played this year, he's been hurt.
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Season overview: Arkansas Little Rock (19-16)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none.
- Losses to tournament teams (1): =Akron-14
- Other losses (15): @St. Bonaventure-13, @Oral Roberts-26, @Missouri St.-34, Mississippi-14, @Rice-10, @North Texas-12, @Denver-OT, St. Bonaventure-13, @Florida Atlantic-17, Arkansas St.-11, @Louisiana Lafayette-1, Western Kentucky-2, @South Alabama-13, @Arkansas St.-8, North Texas-3
Key Info: Arkansas Little Rock is not a great team, just below the 200 mark in the nation in Strength, offense, and defense. Still, that's a whole lot better than they were last year when they won only seven games. The Trojans put together a decent run of games to win the Sun Belt tournament, and they'll have to play to that level to beat Asheville.
Senior Solomon Bozeman is the team's heart and soul, averaging over 16 points per game. He'll provide a good test for the Bulldogs' tight defense. Senior guard Matt Mouzy is a big 3-point threat; the team's top five scorers are all guards and the top three are seniors.
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Game Analysis: The 16 vs. 16 games have always been hard to pick, in that logic pretty much goes out the window. Several years have featured a team with a losing record, and many times that team has won the game. Team momentum is usually irrelevant, since both teams had to win several in a row to win their conference tournament, which is the only way they can get here.
But since both these teams have winning records, maybe some analysis will come in handy. It appears that UNC Asheville is the better team by quite a margin, particularly on the defensive end, where they rank quite respectably for a 16-seed. Little Rock, on the other hand, is pretty much the typical play-in team from years past. That doesn't mean the Trojans can't win it, but given that the teams have basically equivalent offenses it points to an Asheville advantage.
Vegas Line:
NC Asheville by 3 1/2
Power rating spread
NC Asheville by 4.3
% Chance to win
UNC Asheville: 61%
Arkansas Little Rock: 39%
And Vegas agrees, making the Bulldogs a slim but definite favorite. Our power rating gives them almost another point, with an over 60% chance of winning.
Bottom line: Again, these 16-seed play-in games seem to follow logic even less than the rest of the tournament. Asheville is inconsistent enough that if they play a bad game, Little Rock can beat them. But it appears to be in their hands, and if they play a normal game, or a good one, they'll win. Recently, they've been playing very well and we see the Bulldogs advancing to face Pittsburgh.
Final prediction: UNC Asheville 70, Arkansas Little Rock 64
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