Butler Bulldogs
Seed: 8
Record: 27-9
Conference: Horizon
vs.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Seed: 11
Record: 28-11
Conference: Colonial Athletic
Date: Saturday, April 2
Time: 6:09 pm Eastern
Location: Houston, TX
Does Butler count as a Cinderella team, since they went to the Final Four last year? As an 11-seed that had to play into the tournament, VCU certainly does.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Butler Virginia Commonwealth
Power Ratings
Strength: #41 Strength: #66
Neutral court: #41 Neutral court: #64
Consistency: #316 Consistency: #317
Tempo-free: #40 Tempo-free: #63
Offense: #33 Offense: #45
Defense: #64 Defense: #66Recent Play
2nd half of season: #41 2nd half of season: #50
NCAA Tournament: #17 NCAA Tournament: #1
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =Florida St.+3, =Old Dominion+2, =Pittsburgh+1, =Wisconsin+7, =Florida+OT
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (3): =Florida St.+3, =Wisconsin+7, =Florida+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @Louisville-15, =Duke-12, @Xavier-2
- Other losses (6): Evansville-OT, @Wisconsin Milwaukee-24, @Wright St.-5, Wisconsin Milwaukee-OT, @Valparaiso-OT, @Youngstown St.-2
Key Info: Looking at Butler's year, the early season had more peaks, the middle had some problems, and the later season—up to their Elite Eight run—has been better again. Another interesting stat is their Consistency rank of #316; we've been doubting the Bulldogs can return to the title game this year, but we've also said that if their variance is on the upside they could upset some better teams. Pitt, Wisconsin, and Florida found that out. Now they face a lower-seeded team; will they be the upset victim?
The team is clearly not as good as last year's model, mainly for the loss of Gordon Hayward, but that hasn't mattered in the tournament so far. Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack have been just as good as they were on the Bulldogs' NCAA runner-up squad; Mack had 30 against Pitt, and Howard had 20 points and 12 rebounds against Wisconsin. In the Florida win Mack had 27.
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Season overview: Virginia Commonwealth (28-11)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =UCLA+4, Wofford+9, @Old Dominion+9, George Mason+16, =Southern California+13, =Georgetown+18, @Purdue+18, =Florida St.+OT, =Kansas+10
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (2): =Florida St.+OT, =Kansas+10
- Wins vs. Final Four teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =Tennessee-5, @Richmond-12, @UAB-3, Old Dominion-11, George Mason-20, Old Dominion-5
- Other losses (5): @South Florida-OT, @Georgia St.-10, @Northeastern-11, @Drexel-4, James Madison-3
Key Info: VCU isn't really like the 2008 Davidson team that lost to Kansas in the Elite Eight. They're more like the 2006 George Mason team that went to the Final Four by beating #1 seed UConn. Both are from the Colonial Athletic conference, and both were 11 seeds. While Davidson beat a #2 and a #3 seed to reach the Elite Eight, George Mason beat a #3 and a #7 while VCU beat a #3 and a #10. But while George Mason met 2-seed Florida in the Final Four, VCU is facing 8-seed Butler, making the game potentially much more competitive.
On offense four Rams average double figures; Jamie Skeen had 16 against USC and Joey Rodriguez had 17 against the Hoyas. Six players were in double figures against Purdue, with Rodriguez dishing out 11 assists. Bradford Burgess has been on a tear lately, scoring 23 against Purdue and 26 against Florida State. Skeen was huge against the Gators with 27.
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Game Analysis: Performance vs. experience. That's what this game comes down to.
The performance edge goes to VCU. During tournament play, VCU has rated 10 points better than Butler; the Rams rank #1 in our power rating for the tournament, while the Bulldogs are a respectable but not Final Four worthy #17.
Butler has been here though, and just last year, and that could make a difference. Despite not being as good as last year's team, or playing as well during the tournament as last year's team, they've made it almost as far, and a win would match last season's success. If nerves are going to affect one team or the other, it isn't going to be Butler.
Vegas Line:
Butler by 2 1/2
Power rating spread
Butler by 3.4
% Chance to win
VCU: 40%
Butler: 60%
The oddsmakers are taking more of a whole-season viewpoint by installing the Bulldogs as the favorite. They rank 3.4 points better when considering all games, and the spread of 2 1/2 is a slight adjustment that gives a nod to Virginia Commonwealth's incredible recent performance. Butler's 60% win chance is also predicated on the full season.
As we mentioned, if the teams play like they have during the tournament, VCU should be a double-digit favorite. The question is, will that level of play continue, or regress to the mean, or revert to the mean?
Bottom line: Will VCU continue to play like the best team in the country? Nothing in their pre-tournament performance suggested they could do what they did. They hardly played a single game as good as any of their five tournament wins. Even during the best part of their season—a nine-game winning streak—they were above average at best. Anyone who picked VCU in their Final Four did so on a hunch or gut feeling, not any rational data.
VCU's success can largely be attributed to incredible 3-point shooting; they shot 48% against Kansas and Georgetown and 46% against FSU, dipping to 38% only for Purdue and USC. Will they have two more great shooting games or will an off-night finally catch up to them?
Butler is doing what they have to do to win, and nothing more. They've won by 2, 1, 7, and 3 in overtime, while VCU has won by double-digit margins 4 out of 5 times. Butler beat Florida despite shooting only 27% of 3s. They shot 28% against Wisconsin and 27% against Old Dominion, and 44% against Pitt.
So far I'm 1-8 in predicting these two teams' tournament games, 1-4 for VCU and 0-4 for Butler. Neither passed my first-round brackets and VCU didn't even make the Round of 64. I became a believer in picking VCU over FSU but didn't believe enough to take them over Kansas. Meanwhile I had the Bulldogs losing every step of the way, though every time I acknowledged Butler's ability to get an upset, and very nearly took them against Florida.
VCU's 3-point shooting can't get much better and Butler's can't get worse. Assuming the Rams cool down a touch and Butler steps it up a bit, the Bulldogs can win this game. If VCU had shown a glimmer of this kind of success during the season I'd believe they could continue it for two more games, but they didn't.
Basically we have two magical teams in the Final Four: VCU, who is playing so far above their season average it defies explanation, and Butler, who is beating teams far better than they should, for the second tournament in a row. One team's magic has to disappear on Saturday, and I haven't picked Butler to win a game this tournament, so it's about time.
Final prediction: Butler 70, VCU 67
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