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Connecticut Huskies
Seed: 3
Record: 30-9
Conference: Big East
vs.
Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 4
Record: 29-8
Conference: SEC
Date: Saturday, April 2
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Location: Houston, TX
Connecticut and Kentucky form the non-Cinderella portion of the Final Four, both having won multiple titles in the last 20 years.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Connecticut Kentucky
Power Ratings
Strength: #15 Strength: #6
Neutral court: #15 Neutral court: #6
Consistency: #153 Consistency: #113
Tempo-free: #14 Tempo-free: #5
Offense: #17 Offense: #8
Defense: #28 Defense: #18Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #10 2nd half of season: #8
NCAA Tournament: #2 NCAA Tournament: #7
- Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =Michigan St.+3, =Kentucky+17, @Texas+OT, Villanova+2, Tennessee+11, @Marquette+8, Georgetown+8, @Cincinnati+8, =Georgetown+17, =Pittsburgh+2, =Syracuse+OT, =Louisville+3, =Bucknell+29, =Cincinnati+11, @San Diego St.+7, =Arizona+2
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (4): =Kentucky+17, @Marquette+8, @San Diego St. +7, =Arizona+2
- Wins vs. Final Four teams (1): =Kentucky+17
- Losses to tournament teams (9): @Pittsburgh-15, @Notre Dame-3, Louisville-OT, Syracuse-8, @St. John's-17, @Louisville-13, Marquette-OT, @West Virginia-9, Notre Dame-3
- Other losses (0):none
Key Info: When Connecticut completed its sweep of 5 games in 5 days to win the Big East tournament, some asked the question: Was this harder than winning the NCAA tournament? It's a fair question, too. UConn beat Depaul, Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville; the last four got a 6, 1, 3, and 4 seed, so if we give DePaul a 14, that's the path a 3-seed might take winning in the Round of 64, 32, Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, and Final Four. So UConn essentially made it to the NCAA finals in 5 days. Now they're showing they can repeat the feat, or at least come very close.
Much of the credit can go to Kemba Walker, a Player of the Year candidate who stepped it up big in the conference tournament, averaging 26 points per game over the stretch. How far UConn goes is largely up to him; it's dangerous for a team but also rewarding to rely on one star player so much, but the Huskies have other talent obviously. It's just that Walker's star shines so much brighter you might not see them. Walker led with 18 against Bucknell, 33 against Cincinnati, 36 vs. San Diego State, and 20 against Arizona.
UConn beat Kentucky early this season (game 5, November 24) in the finals of the Maui Invitational. Though it was a long time ago, a 17-point win on a neutral court has some significance.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =Washington+7, Boston University+34, Notre Dame+14, @Louisville+15, Georgia+6, Tennessee+12, Florida+8, Vanderbilt+2, @Tennessee+6, =Florida+16, =Princeton+2, =West Virginia+8, =Ohio St.+2, =North Carolina+7
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (3): Florida+8, =Florida+16, =Ohio St.+2
- Wins vs. Final Four teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =Connecticut-17, @North Carolina-2, @Georgia-7, @Florida-2, @Vanderbilt-4
- Other losses (3): @Alabama-2, @Mississippi-2, @Arkansas-OT
Key Info: As we've been saying since the first weekend's game reviews, Kentucky is one of the better 4-seeds you'll ever find, and they've proved it by making the Final Four. They're good enough to be a 2-seed according to our power ratings, and if their performance dipped in a mid-season slump, it picked back up as they won their last six games to take the SEC tournament crown. It's fair to say it dipped again against 13-seed Princeton, whom the Wildcats escaped by just 2 points, but the next three wins—over West Virginia, Ohio State, and North Carolina—reaffirmed their solid play.
What they have accomplished is all the more impressive when you consider what they lost from last year's #1 seed team. John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Patrick Patterson were among five (5!) Wildcats taken in the first round. But as he usually does, John Calipari recruited replacements and set about forming another star-studded team; this year freshmen Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, and Doron Lamb are the team's leading scorers. Knight scored 30 points in the win over West Virginia, and against Ohio State senior big man Josh Harrellson led with 17 despite going up against Jared Sullinger. Five players were in double figures against the Tar Heels.
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Game Analysis: When UConn and UK met early this season in the Maui Invitational finals, it was the Huskies' best game of the season and the Wildcats' worst. That's probably not going to happen again. Moreover, the Wildcats are full of freshmen who were playing in just their fifth game at the time.
Looking back on the season, Kentucky is the better team by almost every measure. They outrank UConn in the Strength Power Rating, whether or not tempo is considered. They're better on both offense and defense. They're better for the full season or just the 2nd half of the season. The one timeframe where UConn beats them is recent play.
Vegas Line:
Kentucky by 2
Power rating spread
Kentucky by 2.8
% Chance to win
Kentucky: 58%
Connecticut: 42%
Kentucky is a slight favorite following their wins over Ohio State and North Carolina, which are bigger, better names that UConn just beat (San Diego State and Arizona). The power rating number is for the full season; UConn's 17-point win is diluted when you consider the other 35+ games each team has played. The Wildcats win nearly 58% of game comparisons, too, even though their one previous meeting alone gives UConn about 5 percentage points.
But in very recent play—just in the NCAA tournament—Connecticut has been stronger, by almost 6 points. But a four-game span isn't much to go by.
Bottom line: When reviewing UK vs. UNC, I noted that their previous meeting—which the Tar Heels won—was not relevant, since they won by 2 points at home. UConn and Kentucky's previous meeting was a 17-point win for the Huskies on a neutral court, so it does carry some weight. That weight is diminished by the November date and the Wildcats' inexperience at the time, but it can't be dismissed.
UConn isn't going to win again by 17 points; Kentucky has played much better since then, while UConn has had its lean moments. But not since the Big East tournament. UConn's 9-game run—winning the Big East in 5 games and reaching the Final Four with four more wins—is amazing. Kentucky has also won its last 9 games. Over that stretch, UConn is 3.6 points better; I think Connecticut's streak will continue.
Final prediction: Connecticut 71, Kentucky 68
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