2011 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (2) Florida vs. (8) Butler

Florida Gators
Seed: 2
Record: 29-7
Conference: SEC

vs.

Butler Bulldogs
Seed: 8
Record: 26-9
Conference: Horizon

Date: Saturday, March 26
Time: 4:20 pm Eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA 
Region: Southeast

 

Butler is trying to reach the Final Four for the 2nd straight time, while the Gators want to return for the first time since their back-to-back national championships in 2006 and 2007.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Florida                            Butler

Power Ratings

Strength:      #21                 Strength:      #45
Neutral court: #24                 Neutral court: #43
Consistency:   #272                Consistency:   #320

Tempo-free:    #18                 Tempo-free:    #46
Offense:       #18                 Offense:       #33
Defense:       #38                 Defense:       #74

Recent Play

2nd half of season: #15            2nd half of season: #44
Last 6 games:       #17            Last 6 games:       #27
Last 3 games:       #9             Last 3 games:       #14 

 

Season overview: Florida (29-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (16): Morehead St.+6, @Florida St.+4, Kansas St.+13, @Xavier+4, @Tennessee+OT, @Georgia+OT, Vanderbilt+OT, Kentucky+2, Tennessee+1, Georgia+9, @Vanderbilt+10, =Tennessee+11, =Vanderbilt+11, UC Santa Barbara+28, UCLA+8, =Brigham Young+OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (3): @Florida St.+4, Kentucky+2, =Brigham Young+OT
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): Ohio St.-18, @Kentucky-8, =Kentucky-16
• Other losses (4): @Central Florida-3, Jacksonville-OT, South Carolina-3, @Mississippi St.-7

Key Info: Those who were shocked by Florida's 2-seed should look at that top bullet point—Florida had 13 wins over tournament teams and now has 16. Sure, the Gators don't rank that well in power ratings, but the committee doesn't use those. They won a lot of close games that could just as easily have been losses—but again, not something the committee cares about. And they had some bad losses, but wins are what matters most in the end. And by reaching the Elite Eight, they've matched the expectation of their seeding, and are going for more.

The team was hitting its stride late when they fell apart against Kentucky. This follows that pattern of unpredictability (if that makes any sense) that has plagued the Gators and makes us question whether they can put together a Final Four run. They're vulnerable to being upset, but if they clear the early hurdles they can beat a better team. The irony is, now that they've cleared the early hurdles they're facing a lower seed, so their vulnerability to being upset is still in play.

Florida is led by guards Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton; it was Chandler Parsons who sparked their opening win with nearly a triple-double against Santa Barbara, but Walker's 21 paced the Gators against UCLA. The win against BYU was a true team effort, with four players in double figures led by Alex Tyus' 19.

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Season overview: Butler (26-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =Florida St.+3, =Old Dominion+2, =Pittsburgh+1, =Wisconsin+7
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (2): =Florida St.+3, =Wisconsin+7
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @Louisville-15, =Duke-12, @Xavier-2
• Other losses (6): Evansville-OT, @Wisconsin Milwaukee-24, @Wright St.-5, Wisconsin Milwaukee-OT, @Valparaiso-OT, @Youngstown St.-2

Key Info: Looking at Butler's year, the early season had more peaks, the middle had some problems, and the later season—up to their Elite Eight run—has been better again. Another interesting stat is their Consistency rank of #319; we've been doubting the Bulldogs can return to the title game this year, but we've also said that if their variance is on the upside they could upset some better teams. Pitt and Wisconsin found that out. Will Florida be the team's 3rd higher-seeded victim?

The team is clearly not as good as last year's model, mainly for the loss of Gordon Hayward, but Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack have been just as good as they were on the Bulldogs' NCAA runner-up squad; Mack had 30 against Pitt, and Howard had 20 points and 12 rebounds against Wisconsin. The experience of last year's run will continue to be invaluable. Florida hasn't been this far since 2007 and their key players, of course, are completely different.

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Game Analysis: Butler is once again, come tournament time, playing out of their heads and my gut feeling is that they will make it to their second straight Final Four.

But Florida is playing very well lately, too, and measured over 3, 6, and 12-game intervals, all of which should be to Butler's advantage, the Gators rate slightly better.

Florida survived a mediocre 3-point shooting night against BYU (11 of 34) by making 20 of 31 2-point shots, many by Alex Tyus who had his way inside against the Cougars. It won't be as easy inside against Butler, who shut down Wisconsin's Jon Leuer. Florida even survived going 10 of 22 from the free throw line. What if they just make their free throws this time?

Vegas Line:

Florida by  4

Power rating spread

Florida  by  2.7    

% Chance to win

Florida:      56% 
Butler:       44% 

The oddsmakers are taking a pretty standard line by taking the Gators by 3 (moved to 4). There's little allowance for Butler's improvement or "momentum". Though I suppose you could say Florida has momentum, too.

Bottom line: My gut feeling was that Butler will make the Final Four again, but Florida is better over almost any time frame sampled. But both teams are very inconsistent, making any outcome easily obtainable on a given night. Looking at Florida's win over BYU even when they didn't shoot the 3 or the free throw well at all, I have to take the Gators by a point.

Final prediction: Florida 67, Butler 66