Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 35-2
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Seed: 11
Record: 27-11
Conference: Colonial Athletic
Date: Sunday, March 27
Time: 2:20 pm Eastern
Location: San Antonio, TX
Region: Southwest
Kansas' path the the Final Four: a 16-seed, a 9-seed, a 12-seed, and now an 11-seed. No team has ever had an easier path. Not that VCU is your typical 11-seed.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Kansas Virginia Commonwealth
Power Ratings
Strength: #3 Strength: #75
Neutral court: #3 Neutral court: #71
Consistency: #284 Consistency: #298
Tempo-free: #3 Tempo-free: #69
Offense: #6 Offense: #48
Defense: #6 Defense: #111Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #2 2nd half of season: #62
Last 6 games: #9 Last 6 games: #4
- Wins vs. tournament teams (13): =Arizona+8, UCLA+1, =Memphis+13, Southern California+2, @Michigan+OT, Kansas St.+24, Missouri+17, Texas A&M+13, @Missouri+4, Texas+12, =Boston University+19, =Illinois+14, =Richmond+20
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (2): =Arizona+8, =Richmond+20
- Losses to tournament teams (2): Texas-11, @Kansas St.-16
- Other losses (0): none
Key Info: Kansas has only defeated two Sweet Sixteen teams, though Arizona did make the Elite Eight by beating Duke. We mentioned their easy Final Four path: 16-seed Boston, 9-seed Illinois, 12-seed Richmond, and now 11-seed VCU. Coupled with their schedule bereft of top-notch teams, does that hurt them if they play in the Final Four? Probably not. This team is following almost the exact trajectory of their 2008 national champion team.
In 2008, going into their Elite Eight game against Davidson, Kansas was 34-3 (compared to 35-2 this year) and also had just two wins over Sweet Sixteen opponents. Their path that year to the Final Four? A 16-seed, an 8-seed, a 12-seed, and 10-seed Davidson. And Davidson was no normal 10-seed, just like VCU is not your average 11-seed.
The Morris twins—Morris and Markieff—lead the Jayhawks in scoring and rebounding at 17.3/7.2 and 13.6/8.2 apiece. Guards Tyrel Reed and Tyshawn Taylor contribute outside play. The Morris twins combined for 31 against Boston U. and 41 against Illinois—with 12 rebounds each. Brady Morningstar led with 18 in the Richmond walkover.
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Season overview: Virginia Commonwealth (27-11)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =UCLA+4, Wofford+9, @Old Dominion+9, George Mason+16, =Southern California+13, =Georgetown+18, @Purdue+18, =Florida St.+OT
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): =Florida St.+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =Tennessee-5, @Richmond-12, @UAB-3, Old Dominion-11, George Mason-20, Old Dominion-5
- Other losses (5): @South Florida-OT, @Georgia St.-10, @Northeastern-11, @Drexel-4, James Madison-3
Key Info: VCU isn't really like the 2008 Davidson team that lost to Kansas in the Elite Eight. They're more like the 2006 George Mason team that went to the Final Four by beating #1 seed UConn. Both are from the Colonial Athletic conference, and both were 11 seeds. While Davidson beat a #2 and a #3 seed to reach the Elite Eight, George Mason beat a #3 and a #7 while VCU beat a #3 and a #10.
On offense four Rams average double figures; Jamie Skeen had 16 against USC and Joey Rodriguez had 17 against the Hoyas. Six players were in double figures against Purdue, with Rodriguez dishing out 11 assists. Bradford Burgess has been on a tear lately, scoring 23 against Purdue and 26 against Florida State.
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Game Analysis: Some think this could be another blowout like Kansas-Richmond was in the Sweet Sixteen. Certainly VCU's rating is low enough that they could regress and lose by a mountain. But past comparisons suggest a very close game.
First there's Kansas-Davidson. This year's Kansas is very much like 2008's model, and Davidson was a surprise 10-seed. Kansas won that game by just 2 points, 59-57. George Mason was a surprise 11-seed from the CAA that beat #1 seed UConn in overtime to reach the Final Four. While Kansas' comparison to their 2008 team is fair, VCU just isn't as good as either that Davidson team or the George Mason team from 2006.
But for very recent play, VCU does rank as one of the best teams in the nation. Over the last four games, the Rams rank #1, and Kansas #2, with less than a point separating them.
Vegas Line:
Kansas by 11
Power rating spread
Kansas by 15.1
% Chance to win
Kansas: 84%
VCU: 16%
The power rating spread of 15+ is derived from the entire season's body of work, in which VCU is a mediocre team. Using all of each teams' games, Kansas wins 84% of comparisons, too, so normally this wouldn't be a close one. However, the trick lies in how much to overcount VCU's recent play. The oddsmakers give them about 4 extra points for their effort during the tournament.
Bottom line: If VCU is really the Davidson or George Mason of this tournament, it should be a lot closer. How much closer? Probably about 8 points closer to either the oddsmakers' spread or our power rating estimate.
UConn was an 8 point favorite over George Mason, and Kansas a 10 point favorite over Davidson, both by the oddsmakers and the Strength Power Rating. The UConn-GM game went into overtime, while Kansas won by 2 points. So both games were about 8 points closer than expected.
If that happens here, then Kansas will win by anywhere from 3 to 7 points. Split the difference and it's a 5-point game, which both gives credit to VCU for their excellent recent play, while acknowledging that overall they don't rate nearly as high as their Cinderella predecessors.
Final prediction: Kansas 79, Virginia Commonwealth 74
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