Game Time: Thursday, March 26, 7:07 pm EDT in Glendale, AZ (West Regional)
Team: Connecticut Huskies
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Seed: 1
Record: 29-4
Conference: Big East
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Success: #4
Combined: #4
Tempo-Free Ratings
Strength: #1Offense: #10
Defense: #3
Power Rating Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #12nd half/tempo-free: #2
Injury correction: #3
- Wins vs. tournament teams(10): @Louisville+17, Villanova+6, Syracuse+14, @Gonzaga OT, @West Virginia+6, @Marquette+11, =Texas A&M+26, Michigan+8, =Wisconsin+19, =Chattanooga+56
- Wins vs. Round of 32 teams (8): @Louisville+17, Villanova+6, Syracuse+14, @Gonzaga OT, @Marquette+11, =Texas A&M+26, Michigan+8, =Wisconsin+19
- Wins vs. Sweet 16 teams (4): w@Louisville+17, Villanova+6, Syracuse+14, @Gonzaga OT
- Losses to tournament teams(3): Pittsburgh-8, @Pittsburgh-10, =Syracuse 6OT
- Other losses(1): Georgetown-11
Key Info: The Huskies have played better basketball in the tournament so far than any other team, without question. After a cluster of marginal games to end the season, corresponding with the loss of Jerome Dyson, they exploded for two of the best games of their season against Chattanooga and Texas A&M. Are they ready to roll through the tournament like a juggernaut? I would guess no. These wins were both emotion-driven victories spurred by their coaches brief hospitalization. As it turns out, there was nothing much wrong with Jim Calhoun. The team got a boost when he was gone and a boost from his return. Now it's back down to earth. And if they go back to playing their normal Dyson-less quality, the game with Purdue will be a battle.
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Team: Purdue Boilermakers
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Seed: 5
Record: 27-9
Conference: Big Ten
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Success: #10
Combined: #11
Tempo-Free Ratings
Strength: #18Offense: #62
Defense: #4
Power Rating Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #162nd half/tempo-free: #16
Injury correction: #17
- Wins vs. tournament teams(11): Michigan State+18, =Washington+2, =Illinois+10, =Boston College+7, =Ohio State+4, Ohio State+5, @Minnesota+8, Michigan+18, @Wisconsin+1, Wisconsin+13, =Northern Iowa+5
- Wins vs. Round of 32 teams(5): Michigan State+18, =Washington+2, Michigan+18, @Wisconsin+1, Wisconsin+13
- Wins vs. Sweet 16 teams(1): Michigan
State+18
- Losses to tournament teams(6): =Oklahoma OT, Duke-16, Illinois-4, @Ohio State OT, @Illinois-18, @Michigan-9, @Michigan State-11
- Other losses(2): @Penn State-3, Northwestern-3
Key Info: Purdue has been hanging on so far in the tournament, pretty much the opposite of UConn's dominance. But they're playing better than they did when Hummel was hurt, and about as good as UConn did—until recently—without Jerome Dysan, meaning they have a chance on Thursday.
***********************************************************************************Game Analysis: UConn's last two games average a whopping 43.5 in Strength, compared to top team North Carolina's 24.6, bringing UConn's overall average to 22.3 and putting them in second place. This makes UConn a pretty big favorite for a Sweet Sixteen matchup.
% Chance to win
Connecticut: 67%Purdue: 33%
Power rating spread
Strength: Connecticut by 6.0Tempo-Free: Connecticut by 5.8
Vegas Line:
But: UConn probably can't continue that level of play, and furthermore, the last two games can probably be considered big aberrations. Previously, playing without Jerome Dyson, UConn was playing at a worse level than most of the season. But the last two games have evened things out; now, they are playing, on average, the same with him or without. Can this be the case? Or were the last two games inflated by temporary emotion? And if so, will there be a letdown? If UConn performed like they were performing without Dyson, they are only a fraction better than Purdue's average when the Boilermakers have Hummel in the starting lineup. That means it could be a very, very close game.
Bottom line: Vegas seems to be thinking UConn is on a roll; they could be, and if it continues they will make short work of Purdue, who seems incapable of raising their game beyond a certain level. But I think time's up for this powerful run by the Huskies. They will come back down to earth against the Boilermakers. Purdue has played two close games in the tournament so far and they will deal with it well. Connecticut hasn't been challenged or pushed at all yet and they might be taken by surprise. I'm calling for Purdue to win another close one.
UPDATE: Not so fast...the recent allegations by Yahoo! Sports against UConn have thrown a wrench at this game. Normally a "distraction" like this is considered a negative, but that's usually the wrong way to look at it. Remember how Indiana played when Kelvin Sampson's troubles began? Like a team possessed. (Once he was fired and gone they fell apart). During Calhoun's brief hospitalization and again for his return, the Huskies played "possessed" basketball. So now the whole landscape has changed. It's looking like another UConn blowout win now as the team rallies around their coach.
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