Game Time: Thursday, March 19, 3:00 pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA (West Regional)
Team: Connecticut Huskies
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Seed: 1
Record: 27-4
Conference: Big East
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Success: #4 (4)
Combined: #4 (4)
Tempo-Free Ratings
Strength: #4 (4)Offense: #15(16)
Defense: #3 (3)
Power Rating Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #3 (3)Injury correction: #16(16)
Neutral court rating: #3 (3)
- Wins vs. tournament teams(8): w@Louisville+17, Villanova+6, Syracuse+14, @Gonzaga OT, @West Virginia+6, @Marquette+11, Michigan+8, =Wisconsin+19
- Losses to tournament teams(3): Pittsburgh-8, @Pittsburgh-10, =Syracuse 6OT
- Other losses(1): Georgetown-11
Key Info: Connecticut, as projected at the beginning of the year, is a Final Four quality team—when they have their full team healthy. Without Stanley Robinson at the beginning of the year, the Huskies were playing like an Elite Eight at best and now without Jerome Dyson, they may be borderline Sweet Sixteen. None of that will matter in the first round, however.
***********************************************************************************Team: Chattanooga Mocs
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Seed: 16
Record: 18-16
Conference: Ohio Valley
SportsRatings Power Ratings (tourney/overall)
Success: #62 (194)
Combined: #65 (229)
Tempo-Free Ratings
Strength: #65 (221)Offense: #55 (155)
Defense: #65 (279)
Power Rating Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #65 (216)Injury correction: #64 (197)
Neutral court rating: #65 (230)
- Wins vs. tournament teams(0): none
- Losses to tournament teams(5): @Tennessee-39, @Missouri-28, =Memphis-12, =USC-27, @East Tennessee State-12
- Other losses(11): =Fairfield-19, @Davidson-5, @Alabama-19, @Georgia Southern-4, Wofford-3, @Elon 2OT, Davidson-22, @Furman-2, College of Charleston-9, @Appalachian State-6, @Western Carolina-9
Key Info: Chattanooga hasn't defeated any tournament teams, but they have quite a bit of experience playing them, and losing big in most cases. The game against UConn shouldn't be too much different. By many measures the Mocs are the worst team in the brackets, rating lower than the play-in teams. But they've overachieved to the point of beating getting in the Dance by beating the team that beat Davidson in the Southern conference tournament. Ironically, based on expectations the Mocs have probably underperformed considerably this year, but still—here they are.
Game Analysis: The 1 vs. 16 matchups always raise the question: can this be the first time a 16 beats a 1? But this one doesn't really lend itself to that kind of speculation. The question becomes, how much should UConn be expected to win by?
% Chance to win
Strength: Connecticut 97%Tempo-Free: Connecticut 98%
Power rating spread
Strength: Connecticut by 24.6Tempo-Free: Connecticut by 25.1
Vegas Line:
Both the raw power rating and pace-adjusted give little hope for Chattanooga. The victory margin should be in the low 20s.
Bottom line: It would, of course, be a shocking upset, probably the biggest in NCAA history, if a 16 seed knocked off a 1-seed. And this game in particular would be really shocking, since Chattanooga has the worst record of the 16 seeds, and has not shown the ability to beat any tournament team, let alone a top seed.
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