Preview, analysis, odds, & prediction: Round 2: Duke vs. West Virginia
Game Time: Saturday, March 22, 2:10pm eastern time in Washington, DC (West Regional)
Team: Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 2
Record: 28-5
Conference: ACC
Power Ratings (rank in field of 65, overall)
SportsRatings Points: 4 (4)
SportsRatings Win/Loss: 5 (5)
SportsRatings Combined: 4 (4)
Sagarin Ratings: 5 (5)
Pomeroy Ratings: 8 (8)
Power Rating Special Analyses
Injury correction: 3
2nd half of season: 5 (5)
Most recent play: 23
vs. Above-ave. teams: 4 (4)
Consistency correction: 3
Home/Road correction: 3
- Wins vs. tournament teams(9): Clemson, Cornell, @Davidson, =Marquette, Wisconsin, Miami, @North Carolina, @Temple, =Belmont
- Wins vs. Round of 32 teams(5): @Davidson, =Marquette, Wisconsin, Miami, @North Carolina
- Losses to tournament teams(4): =Clemson, =Pittsburgh, @Miami, North Carolina
- Other losses(1): @Wake Forest
Key Info: I promised I'd address Duke's recent weak performance, saying "if it's not a fluke, they could be in trouble in just a game or two." Well, the Belmont game proved it isn't, and they are. Their last 10-12 games have barely been at a top 25 level, and they're facing a team that's playing a lot better.
*****************************************************************************************
Team: West Virginia Mountaineers
Seed: 7
Record: 25-10
Conference: Big East
Power Ratings (rank in field of 65, overall)
SportsRatings Points: 14 (14)
SportsRatings Win/Loss: 28 (28)
SportsRatings Combined: 24 (24)
Sagarin Ratings: 16 (16)
Pomeroy Ratings: 19 (19)
Power Rating Special Analyses
Injury correction: 17
2nd half of season: 27 (27)
Most recent play: 20
vs. Above-ave. teams: 16 (16)
Consistency correction: 29
Home/Road correction: 14
- Wins vs. tournament teams(6): =Connecticut, Marquette, MD Balt. County, Pittsburgh, Winthrop, =Arizona
- Wins vs. round of 32 teams(2): Marquette, Pittsburgh
- Losses to tournament teams(9): @UConn, =Georgetown, Georgetown, @Louisville, @NotreDame, Oklahoma, @Pittsburgh, =Tennessee, @Villanova
- Other losses(1): Cincinnati
Key Info: If we're comparing recent play, West Virginia is just ahead of Duke. They were even better early in the year, but are getting close to recapturing that level. Their inconsistency, however, makes it hard to predict their games. They could go deep after pulling several upsets, or lose their next game in a rout.
*****************************************************************************************
Game Analysis: It's clear Duke's playing at a much lower level than the power ratings indictate. They're barely a top 25 club right now, not a solid top 10. But West Virginia is hard to get a handle on. Below I show the numbers for the whole season, and for just the teams' recent play (last 10-12 games):
% Chance to win
. whole yr recent
Duke 60% 44%
West Virginia 40% 56%
Power rating spread
Whole Year: Duke by 4.4
Recent play: West Virginia by 1.8
I'd take the recent data to be more reliable. The Duke team that started 20-1 would not have struggled with Belmont. The only difficulty in making West Virginia the favorite is their inconsistency. The Vegas line on the game is Duke by 3.
Bottom line: Duke is ripe for the picking. If the "good" West Virgina squad shows up, they'll advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
Comments