Memphis vs. Tennessee: odds, analysis, and prediction

The #1 Memphis Tigers are set to host the #2 Tennessee Volunteers in what has become the Game of the Year, not just in the state of Tennessee but for all of college basketball. It's doubtful that the Duke/North Carolina matchup will carry this much hype, as it will be a rematch, the teams won't be #1 and #2, and let's face it, Duke/UNC is old hat. Until the big dance, this is the big game.

Both teams are on sizeable winning streaks and have performed well lately. Memphis, of course, is 26-0, and despite the hiccup at UAB has torn through their Conference-USA schedule. Tennessee is on an eight game winning streak and is a remarkable 11-1 in the SEC. Both teams have defeated their share of tough opponents, with Memphis beating #13 Georgetown and #18 Connecticut, while the Volunteers have conquered #12 Xavier and #19 Vanderbilt. Other quality wins for Memphis include Oklahoma, USC, and Arizona; Tennessee has defeated West Virginia, Ohio State, and Arkansas. Both squads beat Gonzaga.

I haven't seen any Vegas odds for the game yet. I expect Memphis to be about a 4 point favorite at home. UPDATE: the line is out, and Memphis opened a slightly surprising 6 1/2 point favorite; the spread has ranged from 5 to 7 points. There are a number of ways to look at the game from a score-based perspective only:

• In my Points power rating, Memphis is currently #3 and Tennessee #6; adding in home court advantage yields a 7 point spread for Memphis. (This jibes very close to the original oddsmakers line).
  

• Looking only at recent games (since January 1st), Memphis comes out a 9 point favorite. In this analysis, Memphis ranks 2nd, Tennessee 8th.

• Using a "custom" home court advantage for Memphis increases the spread to 14 points. The Tigers have a strong home court advantage, but more importantly Tennessee is much weaker away from home. Their loss to Texas was on a neutral court, and Kentucky beat them in Lexington. Their road wins are weaker, too: they beat Chattanooga by 6, LSU by 2, and Georgia by 3. At home, they beat the Bulldogs by 16.

• Comparing the teams game-by-game performance, Memphis wins 69.2% of the comparisons to Tennessee's 30.8%. This is with home court advantage added in. Ken Pomeroy gives Memphis an even higher winning odds, at 82%; in his rating system, Memphis is 3rd while Tennessee is only 16th.
  

Despite all this, I think Tennessee is going to win a close game. Even in an off year for the SEC, they've played a pretty consistently tough schedule, while Memphis has been plowing through their weaker conference. The Alabama-Birmingham game was an indication that they have gotten used to softer competition, and though they'll dial it up for Tennessee, it might be too much to ask. Things that have been working in conference play won't work as well against the Volunteers.

Measuring the teams' consistency, I find Memphis to be pretty consistent performance-wise; that is, the standard deviation of their (adjusted) score margin is low. Tennessee is quite unpredictable, in fact, they're the 7th most inconsistent team in the country out of 341. This suggests that, while both teams play at a high level, Memphis is more likely to maintain that level over a string of given games. That bodes well for their NCAA chances. But since Tennessee plays in a wider range, in a given game they might do exceptionally well (or poor). It just depends on which Tennessee team shows up on Saturday.

Same-state #1 vs. #2: History favors the Volunteers?

My gut feeling is that Tennessee will pull off the minor upset. 2008 just isn't a good year for undefeated teams; first Hawaii in college football, then the Patriots in pro football. It seems that, given any chance, undefeated teams in college basketball find one game to lose. This is probably Memphis' last test, and while it would be great to see a team enter the tournament without a loss, it just doesn't seem to want to happen. Again, this is just my gut feeling. I wouldn't put money on anyone against Memphis.

Both teams clearly have many great athletes. Style-wise, it comes down to how Memphis tackles Tennessee's press and avoids turnovers, and whether the Volunteers are able to use it effectively to slow down the Tigers' offense. Last year Tennessee won at home by 18 points, and Memphis has revenge on its mind. All the raw numbers favor Memphis, but once the teams get on the court anything can happen. It should be a great game.