Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 37-2
Conference: SEC
vs.
Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 2
Record: 32-6
Conference: Big Twelve
Date: Monday, April 2
Time: 9:23 pm Eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA
In long-term basketball history, it's UK vs. KU, the two winningest programs of all time. In more recent history, it's John Calipari vs. Bill Self once again for the national championship.
Kentucky Kansas
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #4
Neutral court: #1 Neutral court: #3
Partial Credit: #1 Partial Credit: #5
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(p): #1 Sagarin(p): #3
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #4
Offense: #2 Offense: #16
Defense: #11 Defense: #4
LRMC: #1* LRMC: #3*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)
Partial Season Refactorings
2nd half/season: #1 2nd half/season: #4
NCAA Tournament: #2 NCAA Tournament: #6
Season overview: Kentucky (37-2)

- Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Loyola MD+24, Lamar+22, Louisville+7, Alabama+6, Florida+20, @Vanderbilt+6, Vanderbilt+9, @Florida+15, =Florida+3, =Western Kentucky+15, =Iowa St.+16, =Indiana+12, =Baylor+12, =Louisville+8
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (9): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Louisville+7, Florida+20, @Florida+15, =Florida+3, =Indiana+12, =Baylor+12, =Louisville+8
- Wins vs. Final Four teams (3): =Kansas+10, Louisville+7, =Louisville+8
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @Indiana-1, =Vanderbilt-7
- Other losses (0): none
Key Info: What can we say about Kentucky? That they're #1 in the polls, and #1 in nearly every power rating? That they ended the year 32-2 and looked unbeatable—or did, until Vanderbilt became the first SEC team to do the trick. They also seemed unbeatable at 8-0 before Indiana did the trick.
We could go on about Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis (14.3 points, 10 rebounds), or their other super underclassmen Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, all of whom average in double figures. Jones led the team with 22 against Western Kentucky, while freshman guard Marquis Teague had 24 in the Iowa State win.
Among the Sweet Sixteen survivors, they beat 1-seed North Carolina, 2-seed Kansas, 4-seed Louisville (now twice), and 7-seed Florida three times. The one Sweet Sixteen team they lost to is Indiana, on the road, on a last-second shot; they avenged that with a 102-90 win that was much higher-scoring than the earlier 73-72 loss. Kidd-Gilchrist led with 19 against Baylor while Davis had 11 rebounds as UK reached the Final Four.
Kentucky beat two of the other Final Four teams during the regular season. They topped Kansas 75-65 back in mid-November in Madison Square Garden, and in late December they beat Louisville 69-62 in Lexington. At the time both Kentucky and Louisville were 12-1 and ranked #3 and #4 in the nation. Their repeat against the Cardinals was more of the same in the end, though they lost a sizeable lead in the 2nd half before recovering to win. Once again it was Anthony Davis leading with 18 points and 14 rebounds.
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Season overview: Kansas (32-6)

- Wins vs. tournament teams (17): =Georgetown+4, South Florida+28, Long Beach St.+8, Ohio St.+11, Kansas St.+18, Iowa St.+9, Baylor+18, @Texas+3, @Baylor+14, @Kansas St.+6, Missouri+OT, Texas+10, =Detroit+15, =Purdue+3, =North Carolina St.+3, =North Carolina+13, =Ohio St.+2
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (6): Ohio St.+11, Baylor+18, @Baylor+14, =North Carolina St.+3, =North Carolina+13, =Ohio St.+2
- Wins vs. Final Four teams (2): Ohio St.+11, =Ohio St.+2
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =Kentucky-10, =Duke-7, Davidson-6, @Iowa St.-8, @Missouri-3, Baylor-9
- Other losses (0): none
Key Info: Thomas Robinson is a national player of the year candidate for Kansas, and indeed was recently announced as a unanimous 1st team All-American. He averages 17.9 points per game, just a hair higher than teammate Tyshawn Taylor's 17.3. But he also grabs 11.8 rebounds a game, good enough for #2 in the nation. The Jayhawks rated equally good on defense and offense before the tournament, but their defensive efficiency has increased while they've slid on offense; they are still in the top 25 on both sides of the court.
Kansas lost three non-conference games this year, which is somewhat unusual. They fell to #1 seed Kentucky, #2 seed Duke, and were just 7-3 after Davidson upset them at home. But the Jayhawks righted the ship by going on a 10-game winning streak. They beat 1-seed Ohio State and 3-seed Georgetown in non-conference play, and were 3-2 combined against 2-seed Missouri and 3-seed Baylor.
Robinson had 16 points and 10 rebounds against 15-seed Detroit. In the very close win over Purdue, where the Jayhawks trailed the entire game, Elijah Johnson led with 18 points while Robinson had 13 rebounds. Robinson led against N.C. State with 18. Taylor led against UNC with 22 points despite going 0 for 5 on three pointers; in fact, he is 0-for-17 for the tournament.
In Kansas' earlier game against Ohio State on December 10, Robinson was 7 of 9 for 21 points and Taylor dished out 13 assists as the Jayhawks won 78-67. They were playing at home, however, and the Buckeyes were without Jared Sullinger. Kansas' defense forced Sullinger into a poor game in the rematch, however, as he made just 5 of 19 shots to finish with 13 points. The Jayhawks fought back from 13 down and in another weird tournament-game finish, held on with seconds to go. Kansas lost to Kentucky in mid-November, 75-65; this time they'll have to flip the script instead of repeat it.
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Game Analysis: The two winningest programs in college basketball history will be facing each other on Monday night. Kentucky is #1 with 2,089 wins; Kansas is 2nd with 2,070 as of April 1st according to Wikipedia.
The coaching matchup is also of interest. In 2008, Bill Self's Jayhawks beat John Calipari's Memphis Tigers 75-68 in overtime to win the national championship. Memphis held a small lead most of the game but the Jayhawks tied it at the end of regulation and won the game. Given some of the teams' tournament games—where Kentucky almost let Louisville back in, and how Kansas trailed all game against Purdue and Ohio State before taking a late lead—is history about to repeat itself?
Kentucky is #1 across the board in the power ratings, while Kansas is anywhere from #3 to #5. So the Wildcats will be the favorite, but then again so was Ohio State and in any one game, anything can happen.
Personnel-wise, both teams are loaded with talent, but it's generally recognized that Kentucky's is better. So much so that the speculation over the last few weeks has been whether the Wildcats could beat an NBA team. Kansas has unanimous all-American Thomas Robinson, while Kentucky counters with projected #1 draft pick Anthony Davis. The Wildcats have a very young team with three freshman and two sophomores starting; Kansas is a veteran team, especially by today's standards, starting four juniors and a senior. That experience is probably what made the difference in their close games and is their main advantage on Monday.
When the teams met previously (November 15th), all five Kentucky starters were in double figures while only Taylor (22) and Robinson (11) managed that for the Jayhawks; the Wildcats also blocked 13 shots. Kansas led for most of the first half until Kentucky tied it at 28; in the second half UK pulled away from KU.
Vegas Line:
Kentucky by 6
Power rating spread
Kentucky by 2.8
% Chance to win
Kentucky: 58%
Kansas: 42%
Kentucky is a somewhat surprisingly high 6 point favorite by the oddsmakers' reckoning. By our Strength power rating it's about a 3-point advantage, and we might expect that the Jayhawks would get some credit for their clutch play. On the other hand, there is the notion that Kansas has been quite fortunate; they could easily have been drummed out of the tournament in the Round of 32. And the previous meeting between the teams, where Kentucky held a 17 point lead at one time, has to color the perception of the rematch.
Kansas' defensive play is the one area where they rank ahead of Kentucky, and it's a slim advantage. In all sub-season samples Kentucky still maintains their slight edge, and overall they win nearly 3 of 5 game-performance comparisons.
Bottom line: It's being treated like a foregone conclusion that John Calipari will get his first national title, after which the Wildcats' starters and some of their bench will be vacuumed up in the early rounds of the NBA draft. Most assume Kentucky, who has won every tournament game except Louisville by double-digits, should knock off Kansas, who won by 3 or fewer points three times. But many NCAA champions have had close calls along the way, and anyone can win a given game. Even if that game happens to be the final of the Final Four.
Kansas is capable of playing with Kentucky, but they need to keep it close to have a chance at another end-game miracle. If they get down by 17 again—or even 13 like they did against Ohio State—it's over. The Wildcats could blow them out.
But we're picking one last upset. Having gone against Kansas a few times and having seen them somehow win, we think that this will be one of the 2 in 5 games in which the Jayhawks prevail. The last game between these teams was over four months ago, and while Kentucky's underclassman stars have only become better players, Kansas' overachieving upperclassmen have become a much better team. They won't give up if they get behind, and Bill Self might be able to spoil Calipari's dream season one more time.
Final prediction: Kansas 71, Kentucky 68
More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.