College/Pro Basketball

Draft Recap: How Good With Blake Griffin Be in the NBA?

Now that the draft is over an Blake Griffin was the expected #1 overall pick by the Clippers, the question is: how good will he be? Is he a sure thing, or a possible bust?

The short answer is, yes.

Griffin is a sure thing in some areas, and yet still a possible bust as a #1 pick. That is, he'll be a good player with a solid future as an NBA player but when judged under the criteria as a #1 overall pick, he might not live up to the expectations that the top pick brings.

As a rebounder Griffin was one of the better ones in college basketball history. Players like that—elite rebounders under 7 feet tall—tend to continue to excel in that area in the pros. Charles Barkley was under 6' 5" yet he was one of the greats. Dennis Rodman is another example.

Griffin's scoring output, though great in college, might be closer to Rodman's ultimately than Barkley's. In college he was often the "man among boys" but that won't be the case in the NBA. His size and strength will work in the pros, but he's still under 6'10" which makes him undersize for playing center, which is partly what he played for Oklahoma.

The power forward position will work nicely for him though. He'll get underneath to reel in the rebounds. But he'll find that NBA power forwards and centers are harder to get past inside. In college he could get position at will, but it will be harder in the big leagues.

Playing for the Clippers will give him an early opportunity to shine—they need new blood and will offer him a lot of playing time right away. I think his early years will be very good, and he has a good chance of averaging a double-double and garnering Rookie of the Year honors. But long term he might not be one of the greats. I think his scoring will decline over the years, particularly if he gets traded. His offensive production will depend on what teams he's on, unlike the all-time greats who will score wherever they go. His rebounding his remain constant; scoring will vary.

I see his career possibly following the trajectory of a player like Larry Johnson. Bursting onto the scene will a great year, then due to trade or injury lowering his production. His size, competitiveness, and strength will keep him in the league for a good decade. But a guy that big might not hold up very well in same areas. He has great jumping ability, but he can't play that style at 250 lbs. after several years in the league. He'll get banged up some—refs seem to not call as many fouls when big players are bumped and hacked.

That doesn't mean he shouldn't have been the #1 pick. There isn't really a better choice, and he'll be at his best in his younger years, so the Clippers will get a good deal out of it.

The Rest of the Draft

One player I think will exceed expectations is the #2 pick, Hasheem Thabeet. He's still learning, which gives him great upside potential for the Grizzlies. You can't argue with 7' 3" either. Picking him #1 was too risky, since he's still too raw right now on offense. You can't know whether he'll ever develop in this area. But he might surpass Griffin over his career if everything falls into place, and just as Griffin is a sure-thing as a rebounder, Thabeet is a proven shot-blocker.

I'm not sold on the state of Arizona players, #3 James Harden (Oklahoma City) and #8 Jordan Hill (New York). Either one could be great or be lost in the shuffle. #4 Tyreke Evans will only get better. Minnesota's #5 and #6 point guards, Ricky Rubio and Johnny Flynn are a strange pick taken together, and one might be traded. Rubio has good height for the NBA but the shorter Flynn outweighs him by 15 pounds.

I like the #7 pick by Golden State, Stephen Curry, of course. I trust the instinct of other NBA players, who are fans of Curry's play. He'll need to be in a system that lets him do his thing. He has a chance to be a great one and I would have taken him over Rubio or Flynn but I'd play him at off guard, only playing him at point as needed.

The ninth and tenth picks by Toronto and Milwaukee leave me a bit puzzled. DeMar DeRozan didn't really dominate at USC—until the latter part of the season, when he came on strong. I would have liked to see another year from him to make a better judgement, but as it turned out he made the right decision, both for his draft spot and the Trojans' post-season shakeup. Brandon Jennings' leap to the Euro leagues to me shows lack of commitment. He knew it was a one-year thing, and he didn't dominate there by any means. If he doesn't shoot well in the NBA his value will be diminished, and how unselfish will he be as a point guard in the league? Both these players have great potential of course but I'd call too risky for top ten picks.

I think Gerald Henderson (#12 Charlotte) will be good in the league. Duke players haven't done much recently but he's solid overall. Tyler Hansbrough went at #13 to Indiana, and I think he'll find a place as a backup in the league. He's dependable and durable, and if his outside shot keeps getting better I wouldn't count him out as a starter. Teammate Ty Lawson (#18) went to Minnesota on a pick from Miami, and was traded to Denver. He's as good as any PG in the draft, but the "fireplug" built point guards haven't done well in the NBA. The shorter (6'0" or so) guards that succeed tend to be much lighter than Lawson's 200 lbs, since that gives them the extra bit of speed. See Allen Iverson, Chris Paul. Wayne Ellington also got picked in the first round (#28 Minnesota) and seems like one of those players that will be traded around a lot, and be a reliable bench player who occasionally makes the game-winning three over the years.

Round Two Notes

The big story of the draft is DeJuan Blair of Pittsburgh falling into the 2nd round (#37 San Antonio). As a projected high pick (Blair went pro partly because all the projected drafts had him easily in the first round) I had doubts about Blair's height but at this pick, he's a steal. Perhaps a better rebounder than Griffin even, he's strong enough to push people around even in the NBA. But questions about his knees dropped him many notches. A great pick at this level and any team that passed him up in the 2nd round was crazy. Teammate Sam Young went one pick earlier (#36, Memphis), and is also a potential steal.

Jody Meeks of Kentucky went at #41 to Milwaukee. Meeks hoped to be a first rounder, and now we're left wondering how good the Wildcats could be in the coming season if they had Meeks back. 

A little surprised that Taylor Griffin went this early (#48 Phoenix) though he does a little bit of everything and whatever is asked of him, so he'll find a role somewhere. Goran Sutton (#50 Utah) is so fundamentally solid that he'll adjust well to the league. Jack McClinton of Miami (#51 San Antonio) is another hit or miss. Will he get lost in the sea of great players, or will we find that the NBA is where he truly shines? Another good pick by San Antonio in the 2nd round.

Finally, Lester Hudson (#58 Boston) of Tennessee Martin is a potential breakout player. He could be the Scotty Pippen of the draft, coming from a smaller school and mostly unknown. Hard to project his success, but for a late 2nd round pick it was a smart move for the Celtics to take a chance on him.

LeBron easy choice for SportsRatings MVP; Paul, Gasol, Howard, & Kobe form 1st Team All-NBA

LeBron James was a runaway choice for MVP for the 2008-2009 SportsRatings NBA Most Valuable Player. The Cavaliers' superstar was more than 500 MVP points ahead of #2 Chris Paul of New Orleans, who won the SportsRatings designation last season.

James led the league in Per-game and Season Output, and Total Score as well, and was first among significant players in efficiency (Output per minute played). He shot nearly 50% while averaging 28.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 7.3 assists during the regular season.

SportsRatings 1st team All-NBA

AP	Player	Team	Output per game	Season output	Output per min.	Total score	MVP rating
1st	LeBron James F	CLE	29.1	2357.1	0.772	1819.4	1464.6
2nd	Chris Paul G	NO	27.6	2152.8	0.717	1543.3	922.9
3rd	Pau Gasol F	LAL	22.7	1838.7	0.614	1128.1	894.6
1st	Dwight Howard C	ORL	23.6	1864.4	0.661	1232.5	887.4
1st	Kobe Bryant G	LAL	22.0	1804.0	0.609	1099.4	871.8

Joining James and Paul on the first team were Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant from the Lakers and Orlando's Dwight Howard at center. In the AP team announced today, Paul made the second team while Gasol was a third-team selection.

SportsRatings' second team is led by AP first-team selections Dwayne Wade of Miami and Dirk Nowitsky of Dallas at guard and forward respectively. Joining them are three players also on the AP's second team: forward Tim Duncan of San Antonio, guard Brandon Roy of Portland, and center Yao Ming of Houston.

SportsRatings 2nd team All-NBA

AP	Player	Team	Output per game	Season output	Output per min.	Total score	MVP rating
1st	Dwyane Wade G	MIA	27.0	2133.0	0.699	1492.0	781.8
2nd	Tim Duncan F	SA	21.9	1642.5	0.652	1070.6	705.5
1st	Dirk Nowitzki F	DAL	23.2	1879.2	0.615	1156.4	705.4
2nd	Yao Ming C	HOU	20.9	1609.3	0.622	1001.0	646.7
2nd	Brandon Roy G	POR	20.2	1575.6	0.543	855.6	563.8

The third team contains three Celtics: guard Rajon Rondo and forwards Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Of the three, only Pierce made the AP squads as a 2nd-teamer. Tony Parker of San Antonio and Deron Williams of Utah round out the final team.

SportsRatings 3rd team All-NBA

AP	Player	Team	Output per game	Season output	Output per min.	Total score	MVP rating
3rd	Tony Parker G	SA	19.2	1382.4	0.563	778.4	512.9
--	Rajon Rondo G	BOS	16.5	1320.0	0.500	660.0	499.0
--	Kevin Garnett F	BOS	18.8	1071.6	0.605	647.8	489.7
2nd	Paul Pierce F	BOS	16.6	1344.6	0.443	595.2	450.0
--	Deron Williams G	UTA	20.4	1387.2	0.554	769.0	449.9

Purists may feel the need to rebalance the 3rd team. Putting Garnett at center isn't unreasonable, but that leaves Williams to play forward. A small but workable lineup considering the talent involved, though it might be best to replace Williams with the next available center, which would be either Toronto's Chris Bosh or (for pure purists) Shaquille O'Neal, who was the AP's third team center.

Denver teammates Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony were both 3rd team selections by the AP; Billups narrowly missed the SportsRatings 3rd team, finishing 18th on the MVP list, while Anthony was #27.

2009 NBA Playoff Projection #1: Full Season

We're minutes away from the start of the 2009 NBA Playoffs; here are the most basic projections, based on my Strength power rating and pair-comparison system. I use a playoff-series calculator to get the final odds for a given series based on the game-by-game odds.

Lakers 78%__
            |_Lakers 66%__
Utah 22%____|             |
                          |_Lakers 74%__
Portland 58%_             |             |
            |_Port 34%____|             |
Houston 42%_|                           |
                                        |__Lakers 37%__
Spurs 59%___                            |              |
            |_Spurs 45%___              |              |
Dallas 41%__|             |             |              |
                          |_Denver 26%__|              |
Denver 64%__              |                            |
            |_Denver 55%__|                            |
Hornets 46%_|                                          |
                                                       |___Cleveland
Cleve 92%___                                           |
            |_Cleve 87%___                             |
Detroit 8%__|             |                            |
                          |_Cleve 63%___               |
Atlanta 63%_              |             |              |
            |_Atlanta 13%_|             |              |
Miami 37%___|                           |              |
                                        |__Cleve 63%___|
Orlando 83%_                            |
            |_Orlando 44%_              |
76ers 17%___|             |             |
                          |_Boston 37%__|
Boston 85%__              |
            |_Boston 56%__|
Bulls 15%___|

Pretty straightforward results, in fact, no upsets whatsoever in terms of seeding. This is the power of home court advantage in the playoffs. It's also due to considering the entire season in the power rating, which doesn't factor in trades and injuries. Here are the results of the Strength power rating for the 2009 season:

num Team                     record    rating   seed
1.  Cleveland                 66-16     8.70     1E
2.  Boston                    62-20     7.30     2E
3.  LA Lakers                 65-17     7.14     1W
4.  Orlando                   59-23     6.41     3E
5.  Portland                  54-28     5.23     4W
6.  Houston                   53-29     3.64     5W
7.  San Antonio               54-28     3.14     3W
8.  Denver                    54-28     2.96     2W
9.  Utah                      48-34     2.36     8W
10. Phoenix                   46-36     1.72    
11. Atlanta                   47-35     1.71     4E
12. Dallas                    50-32     1.62     6W
13. New Orleans               49-33     1.46     7W
14. Miami                     43-39     0.27     5E
15. Chicago                   41-41     0.07     6E
16. Philadephia               41-41     0.00     7E
17. Detroit                   39-43    -0.18     8E
18. Indiana                   36-46    -0.56
19. Milwaukee                 34-48    -0.90
20. Charlotte                 35-47    -1.38
21. NewYork                   32-50    -2.24
22. NewJersey                 34-48    -2.47
23. Toronto                   33-49    -2.50
24. Golden St                 29-53    -3.72
25. Minnesota                 24-58    -4.77
26. Memphis                   24-58    -4.90
27. Oklahoma                  23-59    -6.16
28. Washington                19-63    -6.90
29. Sacramento                17-65    -8.51
30. LA Clippers               19-63    -8.55

Once again we see the relative overall strength of the West dominating the East, but the top teams of the East stronger than the top West teams. Phoenix didn't make the playoffs but rates better than five of the eight East teams that did, as well as two of the eight West teams.

No Surprises: Blake Griffin is MVP; Big Men + Curry make up All-American first team

Blake Griffin was the runaway winner of the 2009 SportsRatings MVP Award for college basketball. Griffin outdistanced fellow big men DeJuan Blair of Pittsburgh and Hasheem Thabeet of UConn to win the award by a wide margin.

Griffin, who just announced his decision to go pro, averaged 22.7 points and an nation-leading 14.4 rebounds per game while shooting 65% percent from the field. This gave him the top ranking in both Per-Game and Total points in our Total Performance Ratings. Coupled with Oklahoma's excellent 30-6 season where the Sooners reached the Elite Eight, Griffin was over 150 points ahead of his nearest competitor. He was an MVP in the truest sense of the word, too; without him, Oklahoma would have been roughly equivalent to Oklahoma State this year.

	Player	Team	Per Game	Total	MVP Rating
1	Blake Griffin	Oklahoma	27.7	969.5	807.6
2	DeJuan Blair	Pittsburgh	21.6	756.0	650.9
3	Hasheem Thabeet	Connecticut	20.2	727.2	626.1
4	Stephen Curry	Davidson	23.4	795.6	613.4
5	Tyler Hansbrough	North Carolina	19.7	669.8	599.5

Joining Griffin on the first team were DeJuan Blair of Pitt, who averaged an amazing 5.6 offensive rebounds per game for the Elite Eight Panthers; Hasheem Thabeet, who helped UConn to the Final Four with a second-in-the-nation 4.5 blocked shots per game; Davidson's Stephen Curry, the nation's leading scorer at 28.6 points per game; and finally senior Tyler Hansbrough, last year's SportsRatings MVP and leader of the national champion North Carolina Tar Heels.

There were several memorable matchups between the five player this season. Blair and Thabeet met twice, with the much shorter but equally massive Blair getting the best of the 7-3 center in game one, with 22 points and 23 rebounds Thabeet's 5 and 4 in a Pitt win at UConn. Thabeet improved in game two, with 14 points and 13 rebounds, but Pitt again won, Blair adding 8 points and rebounds. Hansbrough and Griffin met in the NCAA tournament Elite Eight, with Griffin scoring his usual 23 points and 16 rebounds but unable to lift his teammates against the Tar Heels. Hansbrough had an off game but there wasn't much need for him to shine. Griffin's Sooners also faced Curry's team in an early season contest where the Davidson guard scored 44 points in a losing effort. Griffin had 25 points and 20 rebounds and insured the Sooners would get the 82-78 home win.

Hansbrough finished just a hair better than teammate Ty Lawson, and since the above team is a bit crowded under the bucket if we were to pick a more traditional, position-by-position first team, we could substitute Lawson for Hansbrough resulting in the following lineup:

Blake Griffin     SF    6-10  250   Sophomore
DeJuan Blair      PF    6-7   265   Sophomore
Hasheem Thabeet    C    7-3   265   Junior
Stephen Curry     SG    6-3   185   Junior
Ty Lawson         PG    5-11  195   Junior

This makes a pretty intimidating team. With both Thabeet (the obvious center when on defense) and Blair (who is huge and plays taller) underneath, Griffin could play a hybrid forward position on offense and has the athletic ability to guard small forwards. Blair gets the offensive rebounds, Griffin the defensive rebounds, Thabeet whatever's left. Curry played point this year but is a natural shooting guard, leaving Lawson to be the point.

Already Griffin and Blair have announced they will go pro, and Hansbrough is a senior. That leaves the three junior to decide, but it seems likely that all three will go pro as well.

The official second team includes Lawson; Cole Aldrich of Kansas (15 points, 11 rebounds); Terrence Williams of Louisville (over 5 assists per game); DeMarre Carroll of Missouri (led the Elite Eight Tigers in points and rebounds), and Lester Hudson of Tennessee-Martin.

	Player	Team	Per Game	Total	MVP Rating
6	Ty Lawson	North Carolina	19.0	665.0	595.2
7	Cole Aldrich	Kansas	21.4	749.0	577.5
8	Terrence Williams	Louisville	17.8	658.6	551.9
9	DeMarre Carroll	Missouri	17.7	672.6	548.8
10	Lester Hudson	Tenn-Martin	23.9	764.8	526.2

Hudson is the least well-known of the second five, especially since Tennessee Martin failed to make the NCAA tournament where he would have received a lot of attention in the first round. A senior similar in size to Curry, he can also play both guard spots and finished 2nd to the Davidson star in scoring with 27.5 points per game. He's not quite as deadly from long range but rebounds well for a small guard. He lit up Auburn for 33 in a losing NIT effort.

The third team has a few more lesser-known players. The two from national powers are Wayne Ellington, who made a huge move up the rankings just during the NCAA tournament due to his seemingly endless supply of 3-pointers and the Tar Heels' success; and Jeff Adrien of Connecticut who averaged just 0.1 rebounds shy of a double-double.

	Player	Team	Per Game	Total	MVP Rating
11	Ben Woodside	N Dakota St.	20.2	666.6	525.3
12	Gary Wilkinson	Utah St.	17.4	609.0	521.9
13	Wayne Ellington	North Carolina	14.9	566.2	506.7
14	Chavis Holmes	Virginia Military	21.7	672.7	504.5
15	Jeff Adrien	Connecticut	16.0	576.0	495.9

Ben Woodside of North Dakota State made his presence known in the first round of the NCAA tournament against Kansas, helping his Bison stick close to the Jayhawks all game. The 5-11 senior scored 37 points on 13-of-23 shooting that day, and averaged over 23 points and 6 assists all year. Center-forward Gary Wilkinson is the main reason for Utah State's 30-win season this year; the 26-year-old senior (he went on an LDS mission, natch) averaged 17 points per game. And Chavis Holmes of VMI averaged 23 points per game, three more than twin brother Travis, who finished at #51 in the MVP rankings.

Comparison to AP All-American teams

Four of the five SportsRatings first-team selections were also on the AP first team: Griffin, Blair, Hansbrough, and Curry, while Thabeet was an AP 2nd team choice. The AP's other first-teamer, James Harden of Arizona State, was #40 in the SportsRatings MVP ratings, the equivalent of an honorable mention. 

Of the second team, only Ty Lawson made the AP second team while Williams was a third-team choice. Aldrich, Carroll, and Hudson were all AP honorable mentions. The AP choices were Luke Harangody of Notre Dame, Jodie Meeks of Kentucky, and Jerel McNeal of Marquette. Harangody was #4 in Total Performance points but only #30 in MVP due to the Irish's struggle this season; Meeks was 83rd in the MVP ratings, actually behind teammate Patrick Patterson; and McNeal ranked 70th.

Of the third team, only Woodside, Wilkinson, and Adrien were AP honorable mention. Note that Wilkinson was helped a lot in the MVP rankings by Utah State's weak schedule which allowed them to rack up a very high winning percentage, while Holmes benefitted from VMI's fast-paced offense, which ranks first in the nation before adjusting for tempo. And Ellington's rating from before the NCAA tournament—when the AP voted—wasn't nearly as good. AP third-teamer Williams was a SportsRatings 2nd teamer while Sam Young of Pittsburgh missed the SportsRatings 3rd team by one spot, finishing 16th on the MVP list. The other AP third-teamers, with corresponding MVP rankings were: Gerald Henderson, Duke (#42); Toney Douglas, Florida State (#54); and Sherron Collins, Kansas (#84).

2009 NCAA Tournament Championship Game Results - Final Score: North Carolina 89, Michigan State 72

North Carolina started strong and maintained a commanding lead over Michigan State to win the 2009 NCAA national championship. Not far into the contest memories of the 35-point wipeout last December 3rd were being evoked, but North Carolina's lead never grew beyond 24 points and the Spartans kept the score respectable with some mini-runs in the 2nd half.

There were several standouts for North Carolina. As he has all tournament Wayne Ellington scored on open three-pointers but also had sweet inside moves and a nice dunk to lead first half scoring with 17; Ellington was rightly named the tournament Most Outstanding Player. Tyler Hansbrough added 18 for the game, finishing as one of the all-time top 5 in NCAA tournament history. Deon Thompson and Ed Davis fought hard inside for points and rebounds. And Ty Lawson set the NCAA title game record with his 8th steal and had 21 points himself to lead all scorers.

The Spartans had few bright spots. Korie Lucious hit twin three-pointers from the same spot on the top of the key in the first half, but like the Tar Heels' last few opponents, the Spartans were poor from outside the 3-point line, hitting only 7 of 24. Kalin Lucas had 14, Durrell Summer 13, and Goran Suton 17 points and 11 rebounds, but overall the Spartans' offense couldn't get on track and their defense was overwhelmed by the Tar Heels' attack. Adding injury to insult, Raymar Morgan was hit in the face underneath in the first half and stayed on the floor for minutes, but he recovered to re-enter the game. He had only four points in contrast with his great 18 point effort against Connecticut.

The Tar Heels won their 2nd national title in the last five years and their fourth in the last three decades. Overall North Carolina has won five national titles, tying them with Indiana for 3rd place behind UCLA (11) and Kentucky (7).

2009 NCAA Tournament Championship Game Preview, Odds, & Predictions: (1) North Carolina vs. (2) Michigan State

Game Time: Monday, April 6, 9:21pm EDT in Detroit, MI

Team: North Carolina Tar Heels

Seed: 1
Record: 33-4
Conference: ACC

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:  #1   Injury Correction: #1 (-Lawson #3)
Success:   #1
Combined:  #1

Tempo-Free Ratings

Strength:  #1   Injury Correction: #1 (-Lawson #16)
Offense:   #1
Defense:   #18

Recent play

2nd half of season:    #1  tempo-free: #3
NCAA Tournament games: #1  tempo-free: #1

01 W Pennsylvania    86-71  13 W@Nevada          84-61  25 W@Miami FL        69-65
02 W Kentucky        77-58  14 L Boston College  85-78  26 W N.C. State      89-80
03 W@UCSB            84-67  15 W Charleston     108-70  27 L@Maryland     OT 88-85
04 W@Chaminade      115-70  16 L@Wake Forest     92-89  28 W Georgia Tech   104-74
05 W=Oregon          98-69  17 W@Virginia        83-61  29 W@Virginia Tech   86-78
06 W=Notre Dame     102-87  18 W Miami FL        82-65  30 W Duke            79-71
07 W UNC Asheville  116-48  19 W Clemson         94-70  31 W=Virginia Tech   79-76
08 W@Michigan State  98-63  20 W@Florida State   80-77  32 L=Florida State   73-70
09 W Oral Roberts   100-84  21 W@N.C. State      93-76  33 W=Radford        101-58
10 W Evansville      91-73  22 W Maryland       108-91  34 W=Louisiana State 84-70
11 W=Valparaiso      85-63  23 W Virginia        76-61  35 W=Gonzaga         98-77
12 W Rutgers         97-75  24 W@Duke           101-87  36 W=Oklahoma        72-60
                                                        37 W=Villanova       83-69

• Wins vs. tournament teams(11): @Michigan State+35, =Oklahoma+12, @Duke+14, Duke+8, =Villanova+14, =Gonzaga+21, @Florida State+3, Clemson+24, LSU+14, Maryland+17, =Radford+43
  
• Wins vs. Round of 32 teams(8): @Michigan State+35, =Oklahoma+12, @Duke+14, Duke+8, =Villanova+14, =Gonzaga+21, LSU+14, Maryland+17
• Wins vs. Sweet 16 teams(6): @Michigan State+35, =Oklahoma+12, @Duke+14, Duke+8, =Villanova+14,=Gonzaga+21
• Wins vs. Elite 8 teams(3): @Michigan State+35, =Oklahoma+12, =Villanova+14
• Wins vs. Final Four teams(2): @Michigan State+35, =Villanova+14
• Losses to tournament teams(4): Boston College-7,@Wake Forest-3, @Maryland OT, =Florida State-3
• Other losses(0): none
  

Key Info: Charting North Carolina's season tempo-free alters the look of their season quite a bit. Now the game against Asheville doesn't match the subsequent blowout over Michigan State. It also makes their chart look a lot closer to Michigan State's, as the Spartans play a slow tempo (66 possession average) and the Tar Heels play super-fast (76 possessions).

   ***********************************************************************************

Team: Michigan State Spartans

Seed: 2
Record: 31-6
Conference: Big Ten

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:  #13   Injury Correction: #7 (-Morgan #14, -Suton #47)
Success:   #3
Combined:  #4

Tempo-Free Ratings

Strength:  #11   Injury Correction: #5 (-Morgan #11, -Suton #56)
Offense:   #21
Defense:   #11

Recent Play

2nd half of season:    #11   tempo-free: #8
NCAA Tournament games: #6    tempo-free: #5

01 W Idaho          100-62  13 W@Northwestern    77-66  25 L@Purdue          72-54
02 W@IUPU Ft. Wayne  70-59  14 W Ohio State      67-58  26 W Wisconsin       61-50
03 L=Maryland        80-62  15 W Kansas          75-62  27 W Iowa            62-54
04 W=Oklahoma St.    94-79  16 W@Penn State      78-73  28 W@Illinois        74-66
05 W=Wichita St.     65-57  17 W Illinois        63-57  29 W@Indiana         64-59
06 L North Carolina  98-63  18 L Northwestern    70-63  30 W Purdue          62-51
07 W Bradley         75-59  19 W@Ohio State      78-67  31 W=Minnesota       64-56
08 W Alcorn St.     118-60  20 W@Iowa            71-56  32 L=Ohio State      82-70
09 W The Citadel     79-65  21 L Penn State      72-68  33 W=Robert Morris   77-62
10 W@Texas           67-63  22 W Minnesota       76-47  34 W=USC             74-69
11 W=Oakland         82-66  23 W Indiana         75-47  35 W=Kansas          67-62
12 W@Minnesota       70-58  24 W@Michigan        54-42  36 W=Louisville      64-52
                                                        37 W Connecticut     82-73

• Wins vs. tournament teams(18): Connecticut 82-73, =Louisville+12, =Kansas+5, Kansas+13, Purdue+11, @Illinois+8, Illinois+6, @Texas+4, =OKlahoma State+15, @Ohio State+11, Ohio State+9, =USC+5, @Minnesota+12, =Minnesota+8, Minnesota+12, @Michigan+12, Wisconsin+11,=Robert Morris+15
• Wins vs. Round of 32 teams(10): Connecticut 82-73, =Louisville+12, =Kansas+5, Kansas+13, Purdue+11, @Texas+4, =Oklahoma State+15, =USC+5, @Michigan+12, Wisconsin+11
• Wins vs. Sweet 16 teams(5): Connecticut 82-73, =Louisville+12, =Kansas+5, Kansas+13, Purdue+11
• Wins vs. Elite 8 teams(2): Connecticut 82-73, =Louisville+12
• Wins vs. Final Four teams(1): Connecticut 82-73
• Losses to tournament teams(4): =Maryland-18, North Carolina-35, @Purdue-18, =Ohio State-12
• Other losses(2): Northwestern-7, Penn State-4
  

Key Info: Suddenly the Spartans are a tough home court team! Not only that, but Raymar Morgan looks like he's really back to form. The 35-point loss to North Carolina was in the same arena but without Goran Suton. Lots of variables in play here.

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Game Analysis: Below are the team's charts side by side:

Should we assume we can throw away game #8 for North Carolina, and game #6 for Michigan State? That was the 98-63 stomping the Tar Heels layed on the Spartans early in the season. Significantly, it was played at Ford Field; also significantly, Goran Suton didn't play for MSU. Is he worth 35 points? If we consider that result as a precedent for the matchup there's not much to look at: UNC should win the game handily, not by 35 but maybe by 15 or 20. So we'll ignore the early-season game and the matchups that might be affected by Suton's presence and MSU's development over the year, etc., and just look at the numbers.

The numbers are pretty confounding, as tempo, injuries, home court, and season portion all make for varying results. These four factors combine for 16 sets of predictions. Let's run through them.

Full Season

In all cases, analyzing tempo-free helps the Spartans, as does adding home court advantage (naturally). The other variables (season portion and injuries) change depending on each other. Starting with the whole season, however, gives these possibilities from the Strength power rating:

Analysis                   Projection (% chance to win)
Standard                   UNC by 7.7 (66% chance to win)
Standard + home court      UNC by 4.3 (57%)
Tempo-free                 UNC by 4.9 (66%)
Tempo-free + home court    UNC by 1.3 (Michigan State, 50.3%)

Note that in the tempo-free, home court case the Spartans win the majority of games (just barely) even as, on average, UNC is still favored by a point.

2nd half of Season

For the most part, using only the 2nd half of the season helps the Spartans. Of course it removes from the calculations the 35-point loss to UNC, and includes the tournament games that are some of their best.

Analysis (2nd half of season)   Projection
Standard                        UNC by 6.7
Standard + home court           UNC by 3.3
Tempo-free                      UNC by 3.8
Tempo-free + home court         UNC by 0.4

For each comparison the Spartans are roughly a point better in the more recent game sample. Michigan State would claim the majority of game-by-game comparisons in the bottom case (tempo-free, home court) as it did in the corresponding case for the entire season, but by a wider margin.

Injury corrected

Factoring out the games Goran Suton missed, as well as those where Raymar Morgan was slowed by pneumonia gives a better indication of where the Spartans are right now. It also factors out the 35-point blowout. To be fair, we also factor out the games UNC played without Ty Lawson (the four early games without Hansbrough don't change things).

Analysis (full season)     Projection (% chance to win)
Standard                   UNC by 6.0 (66%)
Standard + home court      UNC by 2.6 (56%)
Tempo-free                 UNC by 2.6 (57%)
Tempo-free + home court    Michigan State by 1.0 (MSU 55%)

Now the numbers are even more in favor of Michigan State, even giving them their first outright spread advantage in the form of a 1-point victory when Injury correction is combined with tempo-free analysis and a home court advantage. Since before, counting only the 2nd half of the season helped the Spartans, too, then doing so for this projection should be their most favorable analysis, right?

Analysis (2nd half of season)     Projection
Standard                          UNC by 6.9
Standard + home court             UNC by 3.5
Tempo-free                        UNC by 4.0
Tempo-free + home court           UNC by 0.6

Well, not quite. While Michigan State is helped by counting only 2nd-half-of-season games, North Carolina isn't hurt by it when corrected for injuries. That's because two of their games without Ty Lawson—all in the 2nd half of the season—were among their worst. Remove these games and the latter part of their year is still quite good.

Bottom line: So which set of all these projections is the most robust? They all have pros and cons. Tempo-free makes sense unless one team can control the tempo; in this case, these teams have such varying tempos that correcting for it seems appropriate. Injuries are important for both teams, and they should be judged at full strength. Then, whether we count the full season or not hardly matters; it comes down to home court advantage: Without it, North Carolina wins narrowly; with it, it's an extremely close game that Michigan State has a chance to win.

But we've seen Michigan State play North Carolina in this arena before, and it wasn't pretty. Give them 10 points for having Suton back; give them another 10 for playing better than last time and take 10 away from the Tar Heels for likely not playing as well this time, and still, North Carolina wins by five points. Note that the Vegas line is higher than almost all of the above projections:

Vegas line: North Carolina by 7 1/2

North Carolina was my pre-season #1 and takes the top spot in all my power ratings; I picked them before the tournament to win it all, and I'm sticking with them. This one will be slower-paced and closer than the last game, I believe, with a surprisingly low score, maybe 71-65. Though the Spartans have Suton back and Morgan is playing great along with Durrell Summers and Kalin Lucas, so too are Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, and Tyler Hansbrough. North Carolina should win the 2009 national championship at Ford Field.

2009 NCAA Tournament Conference Performance (+ NIT, CBI, & CIT)

With just one game left, the Big East is king of all conferences despite not putting a team in the championship game. With five teams in the Sweet Sixteen and half of the Elite Eight and Final Four, they're far and away the top conference in the NCAA tournament and in the All-tournament combined results.

There's a close battle for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. The Big Ten will finish 2nd with a Michigan State win and fourth with a North Carolina win. The Big Ten would win the tiebreaker with the Big 12 in the first case and lose the tiebreaker with the ACC in the latter.

In the all-tournament standings, the order is set. Baylor reached the NIT final to ensure the Big 12's 2nd place slot, while Penn State's NIT championship keeps them just ahead of the ACC in the event of a UNC win.

Each conference gets a point for each team that reaches each round (including the first round, so just being in the field gives the conference a point). Tiebreaker goes to conference with the most teams in the current round; the team that has gone the farthest; or has the highest seeded team.

Here are the standings, color-coded in ROY G. BIV fashion, with teams remaining in parens:

Teams in tourney  Round of 32  Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final Four  Title Game  Champion

Big East             7                 6               5             4         2    
Big 12             6                   6          3      2   
Big Ten              7              4         2   1  1  1      (MSU) 
ACC                  7             3       2   1  1  1         (UNC)
Pac 10             6                 5      1            
Atl 10        3       2   1                              
SEC           3     1                            
C-USA     *1* 1  1                                       
WCC       *1* 1  1                                        
Horizon      2   1                               
Metro Atl *1* 1                                  
Sun Belt  *1* 1                                  
Mtn West     2    

The lesser conferences can be ranked better by including results from the  NIT ,  CBI , and  CIT . The NIT is counted 1/2 as much as the  NCAA , and the other two half as much as the NIT:

Big East                                                         109 points
Big 12                                               84
Big Ten                                           78
ACC                                             68
Pac 10                                      58
SEC                           36         
Atl 10                       33
C-USA                   23
Mtn West                23
WCC                   19
MVC                  18
Colonial            16
Horizon            13
Metro Atl         11
Southern          11
Sun Belt          9
MAC               8
Atl Sun          8
WAC              8
Ohio Vall       7.5
Big West        7
Amer East       6
Big Sky         6
Big South       6
Summit          6
Northeast       5
Ivy            4
Mid-East       4
Patriot        4
Southland      4
SWAC           4

This year instead of a "Big Six" there was really a "Big Five plus Two" with the SEC and Atlantic 10 in a 2nd tier below the elite conferences. Conference USA and the Mountain West Conference might be included in that 2nd tier as well. The SEC and MWC had a much more democratic mix of teams scoring points than the Atlantic 10 and Conference USA, which relied mainly on marquee programs Xavier and Memphis.

2009 NCAA Tournament Final Four Results & Video - Final Score: North Carolina 83, Villanova 69

North Carolina built a solid lead and held off Villanova all night to reach the NCAA tournament final.

(1) North Carolina   83 
(3) Villanova        69 

The Tar Heels were led by Ty Lawson with 22 points and Wayne Ellington added 20 on 5 of 7 3-point shooting. North Carolina had the three available all night, hitting 11 of 22 while the Wildcats were just 5 of 17, the second team in a row to shoot terribly from outside the line against UNC.

North Carolina, recalling their slow start against Kansas last year, started strong as expected but it was more business as usual than emotional play which helped them build a 17-point first half lead. As they did against Oklahoma, they seemed to let up a bit and Villanova closed the gap to 9 at the half, 49-40.

In the second half the Wildcats quickly closed the gap to five points, and with Tyler Hansbrough picking up three fouls in five minutes, Villanova looked to have an opportunity. But Danny Green hit two three pointers and the margin was pushed back to 13 points quickly. Green finished with 12.

Scotty Reynolds was great as usual for the Wildcats, scoring 17 points and hitting 3 of Villanova's 5 three pointers. But mostly Villanova went inside to try to score, and the second half settled into a familiar pattern: Villanova dumps the ball inside; a shot around the bucket rims out; North Carolina gets the rebound. This played out time and time again; it seemed like the Tar Heels must have had 25 rebounds under the basket in the 2nd half. Villanova was stuck, unable to score inside and unable to hit a three-pointer, and unable to stop the Tar Heel offense, and soon the game was out of reach.

2009 NCAA Tournament Final Four Results & Video - Final Score: Michigan State 82, Connecticut 73

Raymar Morgan made a dramatic return to form and Durrell Summers had two fantastic plays to lead Michigan State to an upset victory over top-seed Connecticut.

(1) Connecticut     82
(2) Michigan St.    73

Morgan, who shows potential to be one of the nation's elite players last year, was hampered for over a month with respiratory problems and never seemed to have made a full recovery. But on Saturday he was sharp from the beginning and finished with 18 points and 9 rebounds. Without him playing to his potential the Spartans wouldn't have gotten it done.

UConn took the lead back after an early Spartan run and held it for most of the half. As usual Hasheem Thabeet was an intimidating force inside, and Stanley Robinson added to the inside game that worked well for the Huskies; they finished with 15 and 17 points. Near the end of the first half a fight almost broke out but the melee consisted completely of players trying to stop other players from fighting. Michigan State battled back to take a slim halftime lead.

The second half was a lot like the Louisville game. Michigan State built a small lead that became bigger, and pretty soon it looked like UConn was in trouble. Instead of hitting 3's—or even trying them—they kept going inside, which didn't help them catch up. They attempted only six three pointers the entire game.

Late in the 2nd half Summers had two of the best Final Four plays ever. On the first he took a fast break pass from Morgan and somehow managed a dunk over Robinson. Robinson blocked the dunk but Summers spun the ball to the side and into the basket. The highlights below capture the moment.

With 2:15 to go and MSU up 71-60, Delvin Roe got an offensive rebound and Travis Walton immediately attempted a shot instead of using up more of the clock. This was a big mistake, giving the Huskies enough time to go on a final run. UConn got a number of steals and Goran Suton undercut Thabeet which led to two UConn free throws; Robinson's dunk with just a minute to go left the Spartans holding just a 3 point margin.

Summers 2nd great play was a fantastic reverse layup; he was fouled for a three-point play, a play even more important than his dunk but not on as many highlight reels. With Thabeet out of the game due to  back problems resulting from Suton's foul, UConn lost all momentum and the Spartans hung on to reach the final.

Bill Self should not have been Coach of the Year

Bill Self of Kansas was named AP's 2009 Coach of the Year after leading Kansas to the Big Twelve title a year after losing all five starters from last year's national championship team.

It's clear to me that Self should not have won the award, and here's why.

• Self had the best recruiting class in the country this year. In an era where recruiting is everything, I don't see how it was his coaching that led to their success. While it's true that freshman need to be well-coached and he did a fine job certainly, there are many coaches who did more with less.
• Kansas was ranked in the pre-season and performed roughly to expectations. I ranked Kansas #14 in my pre-season Top 25, while the AP had them #24. Unless they were expected to be a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team their performance wasn't unbelievable.
• Giving the award to an established coach and program that has just won the national title and is clearly a basketball dynasty shortchanges the hard work that other coaches have to go through to have success. Almost anyone could have success at Kansas.

I believe Coach of the Year should be given to a coach who achieved a lot with very little, rather than a Rich Get Richer story (or in this case, the Rich Stay Rich). Perhaps their should be two different awards, one for recruiting and one for coaching. Certainly it was Self's recruiting that saved the season this year, though even that becomes a lot easier when you're at Kansas. So his success had three components: 1) the Kansas name, which makes recruiting easier, 2) his recruiting success, which is a credit to him and his staff (assuming he's playing by the rules of course), and 3) his actual coaching ability, which took a few veterans and a slew of freshman and had them playing great basketball this season.

What I'd like to see are elements #1 and #2 separated from #3. Look at what a team has going for it, and try to compare coaching jobs based on how much they have to work with. Given that, here are some coaches that I think are more deserving, in no particular order:

1. Mike Anderson of Missouri: If you're looking at the Big 12, why not Mike Anderson? His team didn't receive a single vote in the pre-season AP top 25 (I listed them at #28), yet they came close to winning the conference and made it farther in the NCAA tournament than Self's team.
2. Frank Martin, Kansas State: Another Big 12 possibility. After losing not only Michael Beasley but also Bill Walker, the cupboard was pretty bare for 2008-2009. But the team had a winning Big 12 record and a 22-12 overall record after making the NIT.
3. Bruce Weber, Illinois: Not much was expected of the Illini, who also got no votes pre-season. But they competed for the Big Ten title until a late downturn, and made the NCAA tournament.
4. Ed DeChellis, Penn State: Recent NIT champions, the Nittany Lions also were unheralded this season, and don't have nearly the recruiting power that their football team does.
5. John Beilein, Michigan: Yet another candidate from the Big Ten, which was probably the most-improved conference this season. The Wolverines under Beilein won their first NCAA tournament game in a decade.

Other potential winners include Butler's Brad Stevens, who has carried on Todd Lichlighter's success in the program, and Florida State's Leonard Hamilton, who brought the Seminoles back to the NCAA tournament. While the latter had recruiting success like Self (to a lesser degree), his team also didn't get a single pre-season vote. I had them #10 (!) to start the season so while I wouldn't give the award to Hamilton, he should be considered by the AP because by their standards the team greatly outperformed expectations. And there are many others who could have received the award.

Self did a good job with his team, I won't deny. But I'd rather see coaches who had a tough job going into the season be rewarded rather than those whose situation gives them an advantage. Of all those mentioned above, Anderson fared the best, finishing 5th, while Hamilton received 2 votes and Stevens 1 vote. Choices #2 through #4 in the AP vote were just as uninspired: Jamie Dixon of Pitt, John Calipari of Memphis, and Rick Pitino of Louisville, all of whose teams were highly touted at the start of the season.