SportsRatings: College Basketball

Tigers' Time at Top Temporary: Missouri falls at Oklahoma State 79-72

On Monday Missouri took over the #1 spot on our weekly version of the Zeitgeist Rankings, but next week will be different as the Tigers came up short on the road to Oklahoma State, 79-72. Two Cowboys had career highs: freshman Le’Bryan Nash with 27 on 12-of-18 shooting, and Brian Williams with 22. Williams shot 12 of the team's 14 free throws, making 10 of them.

Missouri kept it close at the free throw line, making 16 of 18, and even their 4-for-19 from the 3-point line didn't matter as Oklahoma State made only 5 threes themselves. But they shot 67% from 2-point range, compared to Missouri's 40% overall clip. Even Ricardo Ratliffe had an off-night, making only 59% from the field (10 of 17) and reducing his record-pace clip to 75.4% for the season. Ratliffe led the Tigers with 25 points and needs to stay above 74.6% to top Steve Johnson's 1981 season at Oregon State.

Missouri drops to #6 in the daily Zeitgeist rankings. They had already been displaced from the #1 spot by Syracuse, but yesterday's loss makes it clear they won't hold the number one spot come next Monday.

prev Rnk Team                    Record  Rating Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 21-1   56.86  ..W 60-53 #25 Cincinnati      
  3   2. Kentucky                 20-1   50.96  .W 57-44 #177 Georgia         
  4   3. Kansas                   17-3   49.79  ..W 64-54 #135 Texas A&M      
  5   4. San Diego St.            18-2   46.57  .W 52-42 #46 Wyoming          
  6   5. Creighton                19-2   45.24  W 77-69 #126 Drake            
  2   6. Missouri                 18-2   41.33  L 79-72 #198 Oklahoma St.     
  9   7. Michigan St.             17-4   41.32  W 68-52 #28 Minnesota         
  7   8. Baylor                   18-2   39.23  .W 77-65 #99 Oklahoma         
 12   9. Ohio St.                 18-3   37.35  W 78-54 #122 Penn St.         
  8  10. Murray St.               20-0   36.97  ....W 82-65 #299 SIU Edwardsvil

Teams 3-5 slide up a notch, with Creighton notching a win over Drake, while Big Ten teams Michigan State and Ohio State both move up due to their wins last night. The Spartans beat Minnesota handily and the Buckeyes handled Penn State with ease. The net effect is to push Murray State down a few spots to #10. The Racers are like the Red Queen from Alice in Wonderland, running as fast as they can to stay in one place, and they lose ground when they're idle for four days.

Surprisingly perhaps, Missouri holds onto the #1 spot in our Success Power Rating, remaining ahead of the Orange by a slim margin. The Success ratings give a lot of points for big wins, especially big road wins, and Tigers' win over #5 Baylor was big enough to offset their 2 losses to Syracuse's 1 loss.

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Missouri                  18-2     27.43
2.  Syracuse                  21-1     26.81
3.  Kentucky                  20-1     26.52
4.  Murray St.                20-0     24.25
5.  Baylor                    18-2     22.67

But in our Combined Power Rating, which adds the results of our Strength and Success ratings, Missouri drops to #3.

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Kentucky                  20-1     48.91
2.  Syracuse                  21-1     48.77
3.  Missouri                  18-2     48.24
4.  Ohio St.                  18-3     42.37
5.  Baylor                    18-2     40.99

The Tigers remain ahead of Baylor, and just in front of Ohio State who lags in Success but is a stalwart at #1 in our Strength Power Rating, which is our only rating to use score margin.

The surprise here is that Kentucky moves into the #1 spot, not Syracuse. The Wildcats didn't play yesterday, and actually lost 0.03 overall points—but the Orange lost almost a full point in the Success ratings without playing. The reason? Let's look at how their previous opponents did last night:

Fordham             L 102-58 Richmond
Albany              W 74-68 Binghamton
Colgate             L 82-76 Lafayette
Virginia Tech       L 70-68 Brigham Young
Marshall            L 56-49 UAB
George Washington   L 78-63 La Salle
Bucknell            W 67-61 American
Tulane              W 80-74 Southern Methodist
Seton Hall          L 55-42 Notre Dame
DePaul              W 69-64 Rutgers
Providence (x2)     L 86-74 Pittsburgh
Villanova           L 84-74 Louisville
Pittsburgh          W 86-74 Providence
Notre Dame          W 55-42 Seton Hall

Overall Syracuse's opponents went 6-8 last night, which doesn't sound too bad but looking into it, it gets worse. Since the conference foes pretty much balance each other out—Notre Dame winning helps the Orange, but Seton Hall losing hurts them, for example—the non-conference results are usually more important. The non-conference foes were 3-5, and the wins were pretty inconsequential—see Albany's win over #345 Binghamton. Meanwhile Virginia Tech and Marshall, two of Syracuse's biggest non-conference skins, lost.

Even the in-conference results weren't kind to the Orange. Pittsburgh beat Providence, which should be a wash like Notre Dame-Seton Hall, but Syracuse has defeated Providence twice, so the Friars' loss is twice as harmful as the boost the Panther win gives. Thus the Orange net about a one point reduction without taking the court.

Also of interest is that Notre Dame, who beat the Orange last week, notched another big win over Seton Hall, carrying them into the top 25 of the Zeitgeist ratings at #22. They're still just #38 in Success and #51 Combined, but they're on a roll right now.

Finally, Duke beat Maryland to become the third team to reach 30.0 in RealWins. The Blue Devils did it with just their 17th win, which is impressive but also means that they're probably not really an NCAA "lock" if they lose out. As the odds of that are quite slim, 100% is as good as any estimate of their chances to make the tourney.

The Big Ten rates as the top conference, but how top-heavy is it?

The Big Ten is having a good year, claiming the top spot among conferences in the RPI, Sagarin, and Pomeroy conference calculations. But looking at our most recent Strength Power Rating, it's increasingly clear that the Big Ten is top-heavy, with four teams carrying most of the load in the score-margin-based ratings.

Ohio State ranks as the #1 team in our Strength ratings. Also in our top ten are #7 Michigan State, #8 Indiana, and #9 Wisconsin. After that? The next Big Ten team is #37 Purdue.

Sagarin's Predictor rankings show much the same thing, with slightly different numbers: Ohio State is also #1, with Wisconsin is #3, Michigan State #7, and Indiana #9, with Purdue #33. It's even more pronounced in Pomeroy, with the Big Ten filling three of the four top spots: #1 Ohio State, #3 Wisconsin, and #4 Michigan State. Indiana is #11, and Michigan is next at #35.

Using our Strength, Success (wins and losses only, no scores used), and Combined (Strength + Success) power ratings, the Big Ten forms a couple of groupings near the top, and one in the middle:

Team                     Record   Strength  Success   Combined
Ohio St.                  17-3      1         8         4    
Michigan St.              16-4      7         10        7    
Indiana                   16-4      9         13        13   
Wisconsin                 16-5      8         29        14   
Michigan                  15-5      39        16        32   
Purdue                    14-6      37        39        35   
Minnesota                 15-5      44        37        40   
Illinois                  15-5      49        35        42   
Northwestern              12-7      68        49        59   
Iowa                      11-9      104       77        96   
Nebraska                  10-9      122       114       121  
Penn St.                  10-11     146       123       143  

Even though there's only a loss or two separating the groups, the top four teams rate much better in performance. Ohio State, Michigan, and Indiana rank high in both Strength and Success. Wisconsin and Michigan are far apart in Strength but the Wolverines are more impressive at 15-5 in terms of wins and losses than the Badgers are at 16-5. But using the Combined values, Wisconsin still belongs grouped among the top four.

Michigan, Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois are bunched together in the middle, with the latter three being nearly indistinguishable. Michigan won at Purdue last night, 66-64, and won earlier over Wisconsin, so their Success rating is notably higher than the other three teams, and the Wolverines are currently on top of the Big Ten standings at 6-2. But in terms of raw performance on a full-season basis, these are your 2nd-tier teams, the squads that can challenge for the title but aren't expected to win it.

Northwestern is a level lower, in it's own tier, while Iowa, Nebraska, and Penn State follow. There's quite a bit of division between the bottom three but all are at or around triple-digits in all the rankings.

What makes the Big Ten even more interesting this year is that all the teams at the bottom seem to be taking turns acting like top ten teams, if only for a night at a time:

• Northwestern beat Michigan State a couple weeks ago, but lost to Wisconsin and Minnesota by 20+ in their next two games
• Iowa beat Wisconsin on the road before losing to Ohio State and Michigan State by a combined 63 points
• Nebraska upset Indiana and three days later lost to Ohio State by 34
• Penn State's only two Big Ten wins are Purdue by 20 and Illinois by 2

So while the Big Ten is definitely top-heavy, they have a strong "middle" too, and even the lower-rung teams are capable of big wins. That's why they're everyone's pick as the top conference this season. We'll see if that translates into NCAA tournament performance. The Big Ten's record is mixed in recent decades, with several standout years of underperformance along with some surprise Final Four entries.

Other Tuesday action: Kentucky a "lock" by RealWins; Baylor bounces back

Kentucky's 57-44 win over Georgia (10-10, 1-5 SEC) wasn't much to crow about but it pushes them above a 30 rating in RealWins, which means that according to that ranking they are a "lock" for the NCAA tournament. No big surprise that the Wildcats will make the tournament, but they are only the 2nd team this season (along with Syracuse) to reach that level so far. Normally about 35 teams make it to the "lock" level per year, which roughly corresponds to the number of at-large bids given (of course many in the top 35 win their conference anyway).

Baylor bounced back after a 2-game skid with a decent road win of their own, 77-65 over Oklahoma. They gain back a notch in our Zeitgeist rankings:

prev Rnk Team                    Record  Rating Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 21-1   56.86  .W 60-53 #25 Cincinnati       
  2   2. Missouri                 18-1   51.66  ...W 89-88 #3 Baylor          
  4   3. Kentucky                 20-1   50.96  W 57-44 #177 Georgia          
  3   4. Kansas                   17-3   49.79  .W 64-54 #135 Texas A&M       
  6   5. San Diego St.            18-2   46.57  W 52-42 #46 Wyoming           
  5   6. Creighton                18-2   43.30  ...W 75-49 #192 Indiana St.   
  8   7. Baylor                   18-2   39.23  W 77-65 #99 Oklahoma          
  7   8. Murray St.               20-0   36.97  ...W 82-65 #299 SIU Edwardsvill
  9   9. Michigan St.             16-4   36.11  ...W 83-58 #44 Purdue         
 10  10. Oral Roberts             18-4   35.52  ...W 93-86 #146 Oakland      

The 18-2 Bears move past 20-0 Murray State to sit at #7, just behind two other 18-2 teams. Both San Diego State and Creighton are on long winning streaks, 11 and 8 games apiece, and the Aztec's win over Wyoming moves them past the BlueJays. Creighton was actually the last team to beat San Diego State, but both of their losses have come since then.

Kentucky's win puts them at #3, just a touch above Kansas and just behind #2 Missouri.

Syracuse notches important road win over Cincy, 60-53

The eulogies were already being written for the Syracuse Orange after their first loss at Notre Dame. The team was in disarray, they'd fall apart after their winning streak ended, how long will they be without Fab Melo?

The answer to the last question was: at least one more game, the road game against a tough Cincinnati team. But the Orange came out with a 60-53 victory, bouncing back just two days after their initial loss, and showing that even if they never get Melo back they're still a force to be reckoned with.

Like at Notre Dame, Syracuse trailed early but this time responded quickly and took a slim lead at the half, and held on for the win. The win puts them back on top of our Zeitgeist rankings, just ahead of Missouri.

prev Rnk Team                    Record  Rating Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  2   1. Syracuse                 21-1   56.86  W 60-53 #25 Cincinnati        
  1   2. Missouri                 18-1   51.66  ..W 89-88 #3 Baylor           
  4   3. Kansas                   17-3   49.79  W 64-54 #135 Texas A&M        
  3   4. Kentucky                 19-1   49.76  ..W 77-71 #73 Alabama         
  5   5. Creighton                18-2   43.30  ..W 75-49 #192 Indiana St.    

At #3 is Kansas, who barely edges their way past Kentucky after beating Texas A&M on Monday night. The Jayhawks were behind 30-28 at the half, but Thomas Robinson had 16 2nd-half points to seal the "ugly" win.

Zeitgeist Top 25 for January 23: Missouri jumps to #1

For the first time in weeks, we have a new #1 in the weekly edition of our Zeitgeist rankings. Missouri's win over Baylor—accompanied of course by Syracuse's first loss—puts the Tigers on top of the heap.

The most important action was in the Big Twelve last week. Previously #4, Missouri (18-1) warmed up with a win over Texas A&M but their 89-88 road defeat of Baylor was the pivotal game of their season so far. Their only loss is to Kansas State. Baylor's fall was quick; #2 a week ago, the Bears suffered their first defeat at Kansas, 92-74, on Monday, and after dropping the home game they ended up at #8 at 17-2. Meanwhile the 16-3 Jayhawks soared from #9 to #4, adding a 69-66 win at Texas for good measure.

Previous #1 Syracuse (20-1) beat fading Pittsburgh 71-63 at home before running into a brick wall at Notre Dame and losing 67-58 in a game that wasn't that close at all. They managed to hold the #2 spot well ahead of #3 Kentucky (19-1), who beat Arkansas and Alabama in home wins.

Spots #5 through #7 are held by non-major schools. Creighton (18-2) holds at #5 amid all the Big Twelve teams zipping up and down; the BlueJays got a 1-point road win over Missouri State—who previously beat them at home—before blowing out Indiana State. San Diego State (17-2) jumped from #11 to #6 on the strength of a road win at New Mexico plus a home win vs. Air Force. The Aztecs' two losses are to #5 Creighton and #8 Baylor; the Baylor loss was on November 15th and since recent games count more in these rankings, the Bears' back-to-back losses have them lower now. Murray State, the nation's only undefeated team at 20-0, holds at #7; they beat Moreheads State and SIU Edwardsville in Ohio Valley play.

 LW  Rnk Team                    Record  Rating Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  4   1. Missouri                 18-1   51.66  .W 89-88 #2 Baylor            
  1   2. Syracuse                 20-1   51.53  .L 67-58 #83 Notre Dame       
  3   3. Kentucky                 19-1   49.76  .W 77-71 #48 Alabama          
  9   4. Kansas                   16-3   48.02  .W 69-66 #85 Texas            
  5   5. Creighton                18-2   43.30  .W 75-49 #168 Indiana St.     
 11   6. San Diego St.            17-2   42.28  .W 57-44 #115 Air Force       
  7   7. Murray St.               20-0   36.97  .W 82-65 #287 SIU Edwardsville
  2   8. Baylor                   17-2   36.68  .L 89-88 #4 Missouri          
  6   9. Michigan St.             16-4   36.11  .W 83-58 #59 Purdue           
 14  10. Oral Roberts             18-4   35.52  .W 93-86 #169 Oakland         
 34  11. West Virginia            15-5   35.41  .W 77-74 #24 Cincinnati       
 13  12. Ohio St.                 17-3   35.35  .W 79-45 #177 Nebraska        
 18  13. Dayton                   14-5   33.09  .W 87-72 #55 Xavier           
 28  14. Nevada Las Vegas         18-3   32.98  .W 80-63 #8 New Mexico        
 21  15. Georgetown               16-3   32.78  .W 52-50 #92 Rutgers          
 17  16. St. Mary's               19-2   31.95  .W 93-77 #255 Santa Clara     
 25  17. Southern Mississippi     17-3   30.25  .W 67-63 #44 Marshall         
 20  18. Middle Tennessee         19-2   30.21  .W 68-47 #139 South Alabama   
 27  19. Wichita St.              17-3   29.92  .W 85-42 #213 Southern Illinois
 54  20. Florida St.              13-6   29.81  .W 76-73 #12 Duke             
 47  21. Wisconsin                16-5   29.72  W 67-63 #10 Illinois          
 22  22. Mississippi St.          16-4   28.42  .W 78-77 #26 Vanderbilt       
 12  23. Duke                     16-3   28.23  .L 76-73 #54 Florida St.      
 32  24. Gonzaga                  16-3   26.75  .W 77-60 #271 San Diego       
 24  25. Cincinnati               15-5   26.65  .L 77-74 #34 West Virginia
Dropped out: #8 New Mexico; #10 Illinois; #15 Seton Hall; #16 UConn; #19 Virginia; #23 Indiana

Michigan State's 1-point loss at Michigan knocks them down three spots to #9, though they recovered with a big win over Purdue. Oral Roberts (18-4) moves into the top 10, netting their 10th and 11th victories in a row, but West Virginia (15-5) makes one of the biggest move of the week after beating former #24 Cincinnati 77-74 in overtime. This came after Cincy's big win over Connecticut, so the Bearcats were nearly in the top ten when the Mountaineers beat them. West Virginia jumped to #11, and Cincinnati fell back to the bottom of the top 25.

Ohio State (17-3) beat Nebraska and moved up one spot; Dayton (14-5) also played only once, but they beat Xavier and jumped 5 spots to #13. UNLV (18-3) soared back into the top 25 at #14 with wins TCU and, more significantly, former #8 New Mexico (15-4), who fell all the way to #43 after two losses this week.

#15 Georgetown (16-3) moved up 6 spots with two Big East wins this week, while St. Mary's, now 19-2, climbed to #16 with two WCC wins. Southern Miss (17-3) beat Marshall, which was enough to move them up 8 notches to #17. They moved past #18 Middle Tennessee (19-2), who notched a couple more Sun Belt victories. Wichita State (17-3) moved in from #27 to #19, joining Creighton in representing the Missouri Valley. The Shockers last loss was to the BlueJays on December 31st.

The hottest team in college basketball? That might be Florida State (13-6) who just weeks ago was languishing in the triple-digits. One huge blowout win over North Carolina put them at #54, and this week's wins—84-70 over Maryland and, more significantly, 76-73 at Duke—put the Seminoles into the top 20. They knock the Blue Devils (16-3) down 11 spots to #23. Right behind FSU is another big mover, Wisconsin (16-5), up from #47 to #21 after beating Northwestern and last week's #10 team, Illinois.

Two teams at the bottom of the top 25 took a long journey to end up in the same place. As we mentioned, Cincinnati (15-5) started at #24 last week, jumped into the top ten briefly by beating UConn, then fell right back down with the West Virginia loss, losing a notch in the process. #22 Mississippi State (16-4) did the opposite: they lost to Mississippi in the middle of in the week, but recovered all their lost ground with a win over Vanderbilt, ending up at #22 again.

Gonzaga (16-3) is another new entrant at #24.

Falling out this week: We noted former #16 Connecticut's loss to Cincinnati, but the Huskies followed that up with a 60-57 loss to Tennessee and dropped all the way to #55 at 14-5. And New Mexico (15-4) was #8 before their back-to-back losses dumped them to #43.

Also dropping out:

• #15 Seton Hall (15-4) lost to Villanova and ended up at #30
• Indiana (16-4), #23 last week, lost their third game in a row at Nebraska, 70-69, before recovering with a win over Penn State. The Hoosiers dropped to #34
• #19 Virginia (15-3) suffered their 2nd loss in three games, a 47-45 home defeat to Virginia Tech, and fell to #40
• Illinois (15-5) had risen to #10 on the strength of beating Ohio State, but they were upset at Penn State, then lost to Wisconsin yesterday, falling all the way back down to #46.

AP #1, #3, #4 fall: Missouri edges Baylor, Syracuse falls at Notre Dame, and FSU tops Duke

It was one of those days that makes college basketball so thrilling. Upsets—big ones—struck on Saturday as AP #1 Syracuse, #3 Duke, and #4 Baylor all lost.

• Notre Dame 67, Syracuse 58
  In retrospect we should have seen this coming. Syracuse is one of those teams who had played only four times on the road (though they'd played very well). Notre Dame was coming off two losses and the Orange had to be underestimating them somewhat. Syracuse was playing without center Fab Melo, and another player had quit the team, so their focus could have been questioned. And the Irish have a long history of breaking winning streaks. Without Melo, Syracuse had a lot more trouble than they might have with the smaller Irish, who jumped to a big early lead and held on for the upset.
• Florida State 76, Duke 73
  This one we didn't see coming at all. Apparently FSU is on a roll, and this one proves it. The earlier, 33-point blowout of North Carolina came in Tallahassee, and could be attributed to a bad day for the Tar Heels rather than a surge by FSU. But beating Duke in Cameron so soon afterward makes a statement. The Seminoles had to claw their way back from a 9-point halftime deficit, putting themselves into position for a last-second three pointer by Michael Sneer to win the game.
• Missouri 89, Baylor 88
  The Tigers' win over the Bears wasn't much of an upset, if one at all. The fact that it occurred on Baylor's home court makes it a bit of a surprise, but both teams came into the game with one loss, and Missouri generally rated as the better team. The Bears led early but the game was close in the first half, and Missouri pulled to a 4-point lead. In the second half they extended that lead to double-digits at one point as Phil Pressley's speed caught them flat-footed at times and Ricardo Ratliffe had 27 points on 11 of 14 shooting. Now Baylor is at a crossroads; their hopes for a truly great season are in doubt with their second loss, and they'll need to regroup to prevent a tailspin.

In our Success Power Rating, which grades only wins and losses (no margin of victory used and all games counted equally), Baylor, Syracuse, and Duke were #1, #2, and #3 just yesterday:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Baylor                    17-1     31.69
2.  Syracuse                  20-0     31.41
3.  Duke                      16-2     27.05
4.  Murray St.                19-0     23.57
5.  Kentucky                  18-1     22.35
6.  Creighton                 17-2     19.05
7.  Missouri                  17-1     18.37
8.  Ohio St.                  16-3     15.97
9.  Kansas                    15-3     15.07
10. Nevada Las Vegas          17-3     14.65

Following Saturday's action, here are the updated Success standings:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Missouri                  18-1     35.90
2.  Kentucky                  19-1     24.71
3.  Murray St.                20-0     24.43
4.  Syracuse                  20-1     22.86
5.  Baylor                    17-2     21.41
6.  Creighton                 18-2     18.65
7.  Duke                      16-3     17.25
8.  Ohio St.                  17-3     15.23
9.  Nevada Las Vegas          18-3     14.96
10. Kansas                    16-3     14.72

Baylor, Syracuse and Duke all fall quite a bit, to #5, #4, and #7—Syracuse mainly for losing to a low-rated team, and Baylor and Duke mainly for losing at home.

Missouri, previously #7, jumps to #1—note that game location is a factor, and they got a huge road win over a still-top-5 team. Kentucky moved from #5 to #2, but mostly because Syracuse, Baylor, and Duke dropped; the only team they leapt was Murray State, whose win over SIU Edwardsville did little for them. Still, by weathering the storm that took down the top teams, the Racers reach their peak this year at #3.

Note that Kansas fell from #9 to #10, losing points despite beating Texas. This is precisely because their biggest win—over Baylor—was slightly devalued when the Bears lost again. This allowed UNLV to jump to #9 after beating New Mexico, while Ohio State treaded water at #8. The Buckeyes destroyed Nebraska 79-45 and rank #1 in our Strength Power Rating, but the Success ratings don't care about margin of victory.

Missouri Also #1 in Zeitgeist Ratings

The Tigers jump to the top spot in our daily Zeitgeist ratings, which capture the "moment" by weighting recent games heavily.

prev  #  Team                      rec   Rating Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  5   1. Missouri                 18-1   51.66  W 89-88 #3 Baylor             
  1   2. Syracuse                 20-1   51.53  L 67-58 #105 Notre Dame       
  2   3. Kentucky                 19-1   49.76  W 77-71 #73 Alabama           
  4   4. Kansas                   16-3   48.02  W 69-66 #109 Texas            
  6   5. Creighton                18-2   43.30  W 75-49 #192 Indiana St.      
  7   6. San Diego St.            17-2   42.28  W 57-44 #144 Air Force        
  8   7. Murray St.               20-0   36.97  W 82-65 #299 SIU Edwardsville 
  3   8. Baylor                   17-2   36.68  L 89-88 #5 Missouri           
 13   9. Michigan St.             16-4   36.11  W 83-58 #44 Purdue            
 10  10. Oral Roberts             18-4   35.52  W 93-86 #146 Oakland         

Yesterday Syracuse was #1 by a country mile, and with their loss and Missouri's strong win, the Tigers just barely edge the Orange for the top spot, pushing Kentucky down to #3. Baylor, #2 a few days ago at 17-0, have dropped to #8. The "memory" of their great season remains, but the recent losses pare it down until they sit just ahead of two teams with four losses—both of whom lost their first two games of the season, events that end up having little effect on Michigan State and Oral Roberts.

Missouri also made the only significant move in the RealWins algorithm, jumping from #17 to #8. They're still a long way from a lock, even at 17-1 (Division I opponents only), as Syracuse is the only team that has a "guarantee" by that system.

What about the teams that pulled off the big upsets? Are they on their way to the NCAA tournament?

Florida State has rocketed up the Zeitgeist rankings recently. On January 13th they were #90 at 10-6. They jumped to #54 after beating North Carolina, to #40 after beating Maryland, and now jump to #20 after the Duke win. For comparison, in the Success ratings their total move was from #84 to #23—still significant but not quite as big. In Strength, they move from #36 to #18. In other words, you could say the Seminoles were underperforming, but their higher Strength rating suggested that they would play better going forward. Not only did they do that, but they raised their level of play considerably. With the two big wins, FSU's NCAA tournament odds went way up, too. They probably need about six more wins to become a lock, and with 11 games left plus the ACC tournament, that shouldn't be a problem the way they're playing right now

Notre Dame's season looked like a lost cause before Saturday. The Irish make a monster leap—from #105 to #33—in the Zeitgeist rankings, and in Success, they move from #104 to #57. But they're still just 12-8, and rank only #79 in Strength. They also got most of their wins by feasting on poor teams in the pre-conference season. According to the RealWins formula, they've done only about half of what they need to in order to be a "lock" for the NCAA tournament, i.e. a top 8 seed. That would mean winning another 11 games or so, with 11 left on the schedule. So they can spare a few losses here and there as long as they recoup them with Big East tournament wins. At 23-10 they're a lock, but from 19-22 wins they're a bubble team, and 18 or less, probably out. Ken Pomeroy—who ranks them at #82, similar to our Strength ratings—projects a 17-14 finish, so it looks like the Irish are NIT bound—unless they pull off a few more big upsets.

Games Preview for Saturday, January 20, 2012: Baylor vs. Missouri Headlines

Coming off their first loss of the season, Baylor must defend their home court against the Missouri Tigers. The Bears are at a turning point: if they win, they could truly be on their way to a great season. If they lose, however, it could open the floodgates for more losses. Missouri could use a win as a springboard to a very high NCAA seed.

Here is our preview of Saturday's top dozen contests, listing the teams' Combined Power Rating rank

• #6 Missouri (17-1) at #2 Baylor (17-1): These teams are #5 and #3 in the AP; #6 and #5 in Sagarin; #7 and #9 in Pomeroy. In our various rankings, they're #6 and #12 in Strength; #7 and #1 in Success; #6 and #2 Combined; and #5 and #3 in our Zeitgeist Rankings. No matter how you slice it this is an important game, between two teams with visions of winning the Big Twelve and carrying a #1 seed into the NCAA tournament. As mentioned, it's a crucial game for Baylor, who is new to having a powerful basketball team and they need to win at home to keep their record run going. It should be a close game; the Bears aren't an exceptional home team and we would think Missouri has the edge, catching Baylor after their first loss. But Missouri is a terrible road team relative to their home performance, and that could be enough to give Baylor the win. Baylor 75-74
• #37 Florida State (12-6) vs. #3 Duke (16-2): Normally this would be considered just a typical stiff test for Duke. They'd be about an 8 point favorite over a team like the Seminoles, and the game wouldn't be of any more interest than several other weekend games. But of course, FSU just handed North Carolina their worst loss ever in the Roy Williams era, 90-57. If they can beat Duke on the road then they solidify themselves as the hottest team in college basketball. But if they lose big, it might make the UNC game look like a fluke. Because lightning doesn't strike twice--well, it does, but only in the same place; the Seminoles aren't at home, and Duke doesn't lose in Cameron often. This could be a rout the other way. Duke 82-62
• #1 Syracuse (20-0) vs. #98 Notre Dame (11-8): The Orange try to stay undefeated, traveling to Notre Dame, who has had a mediocre year to say the least. The one place they haven't been bad is at home, where they are 10-1, and Syracuse has played only 4 road games this season. Trouble is, the Orange won all those games by double digits, while the Irish recently dropped their first home game to UConn. Syracuse will be without center Fab Melo but Notre Dame isn't a big team, so while it might be a good fight, in the end the Orange likely remain undefeated. Syracuse 74-63
• #30 Alabama (13-5) at #4 Kentucky (18-1): The Wildcats are riding a 10-game winning streak since losing to Indiana on December 10, but Alabama will be the strongest opponent they've faced since. Playing at home, though, Kentucky should prevail, unless they overlook the Tide, who are coming off a two-game losing streak. Kentucky 66-60
• #5 Ohio State (15-3) at #114 Nebraska (10-8): Ohio State is #1 in our Strength Power Rating, #1 in Sagarin's Predictor, and #1 in Pomeroy's ratings. That makes them, in the estimation of various computers, the top team in the country, while Nebraska decidedly is not. The only the Cornhuskers have going for them is that they're coming off a big upset win over Indiana at home. But that was probably more due to the Hoosiers than the Cornhuskers; before that, Nebraska was 1-5 including a 31-point loss to the Buckeyes. It will be closer at home but getting another upset is too tall an order. Ohio State 68-52
• #7 Kansas (15-3) at #42 Texas (12-6). Another game that's interesting due to venue. Normally Kansas would be expected to win by about 5 points, but given Texas' 11-0 home record and the fact that Kansas has played just 3 road games, maybe this one is an upset pick. But again, like Syracuse, the Jayhawks have been excellent in their limited road play. Texas is coming off a 2-game losing streak, while Kansas is coming off a huge win over Baylor. That could mean a lot of things, one of which is that Texas makes a stand at home and shocks the Jayhawks. Texas 70-69
• #27 Purdue (14-5) vs. #9 Michigan State (15-4): The Spartans began the year with a 2-game losing streak; won 15 straight; and now are on another 2-game losing streak. Purdue has been losing here and there all year, with never more than a 3-game winning streak and never losing two in a row. It only makes sense, then, that MSU wins this one. All of their losses came away from home. Michigan State 74-63
• #160 Air Force (11-5) at #26 San Diego State (16-2): The Aztecs have zoomed to #7 on our Zeitgeist ratings and lead the early Mountain West race. Going 16-2 hasn't brought them a lot of national attention compared to last year's great team, but their only losses are to Baylor and Creighton, and they're coming off back-to-back wins over UNLV and New Mexico. Is a let-down coming? Maybe so, but probably not until after besting the Falcons at home. SDSU 66-59
• #31 New Mexico (15-3) at #12 UNLV (17-3): These are the two teams San Diego State just beat, key players in the Mountain West in a big early showdown. UNLV is undefeated at home and New Mexico hasn't lost on the road. Of course that means they lost three neutral-or-home games, which is nothing to crow about. New Mexico may play tough on the road, but UNLV beat North Carolina at home. UNLV 74-73
• #134 Indiana State (11-8) vs. #8 Creighton (17-2): Simply put, if the BlueJays want to be taken seriously on a national level, they can't lose to the lower-rung teams in the Missouri Valley, especially at home. Creighton 79-68
• #10 Murray State (19-0) at #311 SIU Edwardsville (5-11): This is the reason that teams like Murray State don't get any respect. Even if they win all their games, and handily, they don't build up an impressive résumé. Teams like this should only be on the schedule in the first week or two of the season, but when they're a conference opponent you play them and watch your S.O.S plummet. Murray State 76-58
• #174 Oakland (11-10) at #51 Oral Roberts (17-4). Oral Roberts is another hot non-major team looking for more respect. They're #10 in our Zeitgeist rankings, going 17-2 following an 0-2 start. They don't have a single vote in the AP poll, however, and beating Oakland won't help much. They'll need a good Bracketbusters matchup in order to get any recognition; until then, extending their 10-game winning streak is all that they can do. Oral Roberts 85-72

Illinois Shocked by Penn State, 54-52; Cal puts Pac-12 in Top 25

The big upset on Thursday night was Penn State's stunning 54-52 win over Illinois. The Illini had just re-entered the AP Top 25, and at 15-3 were 24th in our Combined Power Rating. Penn State (10-10) was #154.

It was a 2-point loss on the road, but any loss to the conference's cellar dweller hurts the Illini's chances for winning the Big Ten. They were in first place—the only team with one conference loss—heading into the game. Illinois' Strength rating (#49) suggests that they were overperforming anyway and that their reign at the top wouldn't last, but in conference play road wins are hard to come by, and missing out on this one hurts.

In our Zeitgeist Rankings—built to show which teams are hot, and which are not—Illinois falls from #9 to #26. They jumped into the top 10 after beating Ohio State, so within a two-game span the Illini played their best and their worst. Having an 8-day break between the contests might have left them a bit rusty.

Penn State, for their part, ends a 3-game losing streak and jumps from #191 to #98 in the Zeitgeist Rankings.

Zeitgeist Report for January 19, 2012: Duke, Oral Roberts slide into top ten

prev  #  Team                      rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 20-0   64.42  ...W 71-63 #156 Pittsburgh    
  2   2. Kentucky                 18-1   46.53  ..W 86-63 #42 Arkansas        
  3   3. Baylor                   17-1   45.85  ...L 92-74 #9 Kansas          
  4   4. Kansas                   15-3   45.75  ...W 92-74 #2 Baylor          
  5   5. Missouri                 17-1   42.49  ...W 70-51 #163 Texas A&M     
  6   6. Creighton                17-2   42.19  .W 66-65 #118 Missouri St.    
  7   7. San Diego St.            16-2   40.60  .W 75-70 #8 New Mexico        
  8   8. Murray St.               19-0   36.61  .W 66-60 #222 Morehead St.    
 11   9. Duke                     16-2   35.29  W 91-73 #115 Wake Forest      
 13  10. Oral Roberts             17-4   33.89  W 65-54 #184 IUPU Fort Wayne  

Duke beat Wake Forest, 91-73 to go 16-2 and move back into the top ten, joined by 17-4 Oral Roberts who beat IPFW. The Golden Eagles are on a 10-game winning streak that started with their win over Xavier back on December 18, so they haven't lost in a month now. Their first two losses—in games 1 and 2—barely register a blip in these rankings, which are heavily weighted toward recent games. Duke last lost to Temple on January 4th. 

Other teams in the Zeitgest top 25 that won include:

• #14 St. Mary's, 61-47 over #249 Pepperdine
• #15 Vanderbilt, up from #26 with a 69-59 win over #50 Alabama
• #17 Virginia, who crushed #164 Georgia Tech 70-38. Both halves looked like football scores with the Cavaliers the winners, 35-17 and 35-21
• #20 Middle Tennessee, now 18-2, beat #243 Arkansas State 59-46. The Blue Raiders have won 10 straight

And California becomes the only Pac-12 team in the top 25, moving up from #35 to #25 after beating Washington 69-66. They're now alone at the top of the conference at 6-1 and 16-4, and the highest-ranked team after Stanford, formerly #33, lost to Washington State 81-69 and fell to #52. The entire conference is having an off-year; the Pac-12 ranks just #9 among conferences in the RPI and Ken Pomeroy's rankings, and they are #8 in Sagarin's central-mean average.

San Diego State tops New Mexico 75-70; how good is the Mountain West this year?

San Diego State beat New Mexico 75-70 to take a 2-0 start in the Mountain West conference. Last year San Diego State was a 2-seed in the NCAA tournament while New Mexico was a 3-seed in 2010. How does the conference look this year?

Clearly it's not the same now that BYU and Utah are gone; they added Boise State, who started 8-1 but has gone 2-6 lately. BYU was a 3-seed last year with Jimmer Fredette, and they're doing pretty well this season too in the West Coast Conference. The Mountain West has eight members this year.

At 16-2, San Diego State is #12 in our Success rankings, so they're having a great season. Both of their losses are to very good teams, 17-1 Baylor and 17-2 Creighton, and they've defeated 12-6 Long Beach State, 12-6 Arizona, 15-4 Cal, 17-3 UNLV, and now 15-3 New Mexico.

But their level of competition isn't great; they played back-to-back games against non-Division I opponents over the holidays and have played 3 teams ranked in the 300s and five ranked in the 200s in our Strength ratings. The five good teams they beat they defeated by 4, 4, 1, 2, and 5. They beat 1-16 Chicago State—one of the worst teams in the nation—at home by 8 points.

So it's not a big shock that they don't rank well in the Strength Power Rating, coming in at #62. New Mexico has the opposite profile, ranking well in Strength (#22) but poorly in Success (#49). UNLV does well in both at #13 and #10, and is the clear leader in our Combined power rating.

Mountain West   Record Success  Strength  Combined
UNLV            17-3     10       13        11
San Diego St.   16-2     12       62        26
New Mexico      15-3     49       22        33
Wyoming         15-3     77       63        70
Colorado St.    13-4     67       97        80
Boise St.       10-7     156      108       118
Air Force       11-5     145      160       158
TCU             10-7     114      177       165

Wyoming and Colorado State are in the top 100 in both, while Air Force, TCU, and Boise State rank in the triple-digits. The Mountain West is the only conference in the country that has no teams with losing records. Top-to-bottom, they're as solid as anyone.

So it's no surprise that the MWC ranks #6, up from last year's #7 in Ken Pomeroy's conference rankings. The league is #6 in conference RPI, and they are #4—behind only the Big Ten, Big Twelve, and Big East—in Jeff Sagarin's centrally-weighted rankings.

The recent changes—losing BYU and Utah—stole some lustre from the top of the conference in both football and basketball. The future only looks more bleak with the impending departure of TCU and Boise State. This year, however, is still a good one.

Zeitgeist Report: San Diego State up to #7; Cincinnati in top 10 with UConn win

prev  #  Team                      rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 20-0   64.42  ..W 71-63 #156 Pittsburgh     
  2   2. Kentucky                 18-1   46.53  .W 86-63 #42 Arkansas         
  3   3. Baylor                   17-1   45.85  ..L 92-74 #9 Kansas           
  4   4. Kansas                   15-3   45.75  ..W 92-74 #2 Baylor           
  5   5. Missouri                 17-1   42.49  ..W 70-51 #163 Texas A&M      
  6   6. Creighton                17-2   42.19  W 66-65 #118 Missouri St.     
 10   7. San Diego St.            16-2   40.60  W 75-70 #8 New Mexico         
  7   8. Murray St.               19-0   36.61  W 66-60 #222 Morehead St.     
  9   9. Illinois                 15-3   33.71  ........W 79-74 #11 Ohio St.  
 25  10. Cincinnati               15-4   33.32  W 70-67 #16 Connecticut       

The SDSU win had a big effect on our volatile Zeitgeist ratings, moving the Aztecs up to #7 and knocking New Mexico from #8 all the way down to #23. Meanwhile Cincinnati's 70-67 win over UConn put them in the top 10 while the Huskies dropped to #30.

Creighton (17-2) beat #118 Missouri State, but it wasn't enough to move them into the top five. Murray State won their 19th game of the season but dropped back a spot; beating Morehead State wasn't worth enough points. They're #8, one spot ahead of Illinois who hasn't played in 8 days.

Other results and moves from last night:

• Wichita State (16-3) beat former #78 Northern Iowa 71-68 and moved up 10 spots to #18
• West Virginia (14-5) beat #46 Marshall 79-75, rising from #35 to #19
• UNLV (17-3) moved into the top 25 at #24 with a 101-78 win over TCU
• Seton Hall (15-4) lost to #209 Villanova 84-76 and dropped from #14 to #27. The 9-10 Wildcats zoomed up to #107.
• #23 Mississippi State (15-4) fell to #91 Mississippi 75-68, dropping to #43
• #24 Indiana (15-4) suffered their third straight loss, 70-69 at #175 Nebraska, dropping them to #47 and rocketing the Cornhuskers up to #101.

Finally, Towson suffered their 19th loss of the year to no wins, putting them #345 in the Zeitgeist ratings, one spot below 0-17 Binghamton.

 

Michigan State drops 2nd straight; Kentucky up to #2 in Zeitgeist Rankings

Three days removed from being upset by Northwestern, Michigan State lost to Michigan 70-69 on Tuesday night.

It's the Spartans second two-game losing streak this season; the first occurred in the opening two games, after which they went on a 15-game tear that put them at #6 in the AP poll.

They're an interesting case for examining how our Zeitgeist rankings work. This ranking tries to capture a team's recent performance while still retaining a "memory" of their past level of play.

Michigan State's first two losses were all but forgotten by the Zeitgeist rankings as their 15-game winning streak put them at #3, right behind two undefeated teams.

Zeitgeist rankings through January 10, 2012
prev  #  Team                      rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 17-0   59.19  ...W 73-66 #52 Marquette      
  2   2. Baylor                   16-0   55.33  W 75-73 #14 Kansas St.        
  3   3. Michigan St.             15-2   49.45  W 95-61 #68 Iowa              
  4   4. Indiana                  15-1   42.59  ..W 88-82 #111 Penn St.       
  6   5. Seton Hall               15-2   39.80  W 94-73 #110 DePaul

They also had a large lead over #4 Indiana and #5 Seton Hall. Both those teams lost by the 13th, so when Michigan State lost on the 14th to Northwestern, they only fell one spot:

Zeitgeist rankings through January 14, 2012
prev  #  Team                      rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 19-0   62.94  W 78-55 #115 Providence       
  2   2. Baylor                   17-0   57.31  W 106-65 #123 Oklahoma St.    
  4   3. Kentucky                 17-1   42.09  W 65-62 #145 Tennessee        
  6   4. Missouri                 16-1   41.07  W 84-73 #62 Texas             
  3   5. Michigan St.             15-3   39.56  L 81-74 #113 Northwestern     

But since there was no longer a big gap separating them from the teams below them, last night's loss to Michigan dropped the Spartans to #15:

Zeitgeist Jan 17
prev  #  Team                      rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
 11  10. San Diego St.            15-2   33.71  ...W 69-67 #10 Nevada Las Vegas
 12  11. Duke                     15-2   33.16  ..W 73-66 #141 Clemson       
 13  12. Ohio St.                 16-3   32.93  ..W 80-63 #10 Indiana        
 14  13. Oral Roberts             16-4   32.70  ...W 81-71 #203 IUPUI        
 15  14. Seton Hall               15-3   31.84  ....L 56-55 #140 South Florida
  7  15. Michigan St.             15-4   31.65  L 60-59 #43 Michigan          
 16  16. Connecticut              14-3   31.24  ...W 67-53 #60 Notre Dame     
 17  17. St. Mary's               17-2   30.63  ...W 69-61 #253 Portland      
 43  18. Michigan                 15-4   29.74  W 60-59 #7 Michigan St.      

The team that beat them, Michigan, jumped from #43 all the way to #18, regaining all the ground they lost when they were upset by Iowa. Both Michigan State and Michigan are 15-4.

The ratings are more volatile on the upside, in general. Falling from #3 to #12 for two losses is roughly what is expected in the polls. MSU dropped from #6 to #9 due to the Northwestern loss, and might fall another several spots in next week's poll.

By contrast, our Success Power Rating is less volatile, as the entire season is considered equally; early games are weighted just as much as later games. Michigan State was #6 on January 10th in the Success Ratings, fell to #9, and then to #13, for a total of 7 spots.

Our RealWins rating don't count losses at all, so there is even less change due to losing. Essentially, losing just deprives a team of scoring points for new wins. The Spartans were #4 in RealWins on the 10th, fell to 7th, and to 9th today, for a total of 5 spots. This was almost solely from teams that won games pushing past them, though Indiana edged past them by 0.05 points from algorithmic "noise."

Our most stable rankings are the Strength ratings, of course. These don't consider winning or losing, just margin of victory. Michigan State was #5 on the 10th; fell to #8 on the 14th; and actually moved back up to #7 today for a total drop of just 2 spots. It's not whether you win or lose that counts in the Strength Power Rating, it's how you win or lose, and a 1-point road loss to Michigan didn't hurt them very much. Other teams around them performed a bit worse.

Kentucky up to #2 in Zeitgeist Rankings

#5 Kentucky beat #42 Arkansas 86-63 Tuesday night and jumped up to #2 in the Zeitgeist rankings, moving past a Big Twelve glut of Missouri, Kansas, and Baylor.

prev  #  Team                      rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 20-0   64.42  .W 71-63 #156 Pittsburgh      
  5   2. Kentucky                 18-1   46.53  W 86-63 #42 Arkansas          
  2   3. Baylor                   17-1   45.85  .L 92-74 #9 Kansas            
  3   4. Kansas                   15-3   45.75  .W 92-74 #2 Baylor            
  4   5. Missouri                 17-1   42.49  .W 70-51 #163 Texas A&M       

Kansas (15-3) had just made the top five after beating Baylor on Monday. Missouri's lone loss is to Kansas State on the 7th; Kentucky last lost to Indiana back on December 10th, but hasn't accumulated a lot of points due to a weaker schedule.

The Indiana loss dropped Kentucky from #7 to #25; wins over Chattanooga and Samford didn't help much, but beating Loyola MD (then #76 at 8-2) bumped the Wildcats to #18. Beating 8-4 Lamar actually moved the 'Cats into the top 10 at #9, and the Louisville win put them at #7.

Wins over Arkansas-Little Rock, South Carolina, and Auburn had them hitting #5, before the Tennessee win put them at #3. Kansas and Missouri pushed past them again before yesterday's win let them grab the #2 spot. But their lead over Baylor and Kansas is tiny, and with Missouri playing Baylor, one of those teams will jump to #2 on Saturday.

For today, however, Kentucky is the 2nd "hottest" team in college basketball.

Kansas hands Baylor first loss, 92-74; where do the Bears rank now?

Kansas easily dispatched Baylor Monday night, 92-74, handing the Bears their first loss of the season and reducing the number of undefeated college basketball teams to just two.

Thomas Robinson had a great stats line with 27 points and 14 rebounds, while Tyshawn Taylor had 28 points on 11 of 14 shooting. That was more than enough to overcome Perry Jones III's 18 point effort. All five Jayhawk starters scored in double figures.

The first half was competitive as Kansas maintained a small lead and held a 39-29 edge at halftime. But the Jayhawks pulled away in the 2nd half, turning it into a rout.

Now that Baylor has a loss, that leaves Syracuse and Murray State as the only undefeated teams in the country. It also lets us put Baylor (17-1) in perspective now that their perfect record is gone. Where should the Bears be ranked among the top teams?

In our Strength Power Rating, the Bears drop only one spot from #11 to #12; since this rating is an average of all games, large moves are rare. The loss was big enough to reduce their rating from 19.29 to 18.68; this is the margin by which they should beat the average Division I team. Kansas (15-3) remains at #3 behind Ohio State and Syracuse. So the loss was not unexpected, especially since the game was played in Allen fieldhouse in Lawrence.

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Ohio St.                  16-3     25.79
2.  Syracuse                  20-0     23.37
3.  Kansas                    15-3     23.30
4.  Kentucky                  17-1     22.58
5.  North Carolina            15-3     21.63
6.  Missouri                  17-1     21.63
7.  Michigan St.              15-3     21.52
8.  Wisconsin                 14-5     20.87
9.  Indiana                   15-3     20.21
10. Duke                      15-2     20.21
11. Florida                   14-4     19.28
12. Baylor                    17-1     18.68

According to these rankings, Baylor is a solid but not spectacular team, and their early-season run was the product of playing consistently at their potential without stumbles to lower-ranked teams. Note that they host #6 Missouri on Saturday, another key test for the Bears. The game should be considered very close when you figure in home court advantage.

Baylor held a huge lead in our Success Power Rating before the loss, and they're still #1 and ahead of undefeated Syracuse but by a very slim margin now. Losing the "0" in the "L" column is devastating in the Success Ratings, and Baylor's score falls from 44.58 to 33.19, but they hold on to the top spot mainly because their big wins (#17 St. Mary's, #25 West Virginia, BYU, Kansas State) all came on neutral or road courts, while Syracuse has thrived mainly at home.

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Baylor                    17-1     33.19
2.  Syracuse                  20-0     32.49
3.  Duke                      15-2     26.33
4.  Murray St.                18-0     23.84
5.  Kentucky                  17-1     21.10
6.  Missouri                  17-1     18.63
7.  Ohio St.                  16-3     16.31
8.  Creighton                 16-2     15.19
9.  Kansas                    15-3     15.15
10. Nevada Las Vegas          16-3     15.14

The win moves Kansas from #17 to #9. Note undefeated Murray State at #4; their weaker schedule puts a bit of a lid on them, but if they stay undefeated they could eventually reach the top spot near the end of the regular season—as long as Syracuse loses a game.

Baylor was #1 in our Combined Power Rating due to their huge lead in Success, and with that lead whittled away they fall to #2.

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Syracuse                  20-0     55.87
2.  Baylor                    17-1     51.87
3.  Duke                      15-2     46.54
4.  Kentucky                  17-1     43.69
5.  Ohio St.                  16-3     42.11
6.  Missouri                  17-1     40.26
7.  Kansas                    15-3     38.46
8.  Michigan St.              15-3     36.22
9.  Murray St.                18-0     35.02
10. North Carolina            15-3     33.21

Syracuse takes over the top spot, with Duke in 3rd place. Strength leader Ohio State is only #7 in Success and comes in #5 Combined. Kansas is up from #11, while Murray State—undefeated and #4 in Success—is only #47 in Strength and is barely in the top 10 Combined.

In our RealWins algorithm, Baylor's score hardly changed, as losses are basically ignored; teams build up RealWins points for their wins, so Kansas got big credit for the win but the Bears didn't suffer for the loss.

                             Div I     Real     NCAA
 rnk Team                    record    Wins     Lock%
  1. Syracuse                 20-0     35.17   100.00
  2. Duke                     15-2     27.81    92.72
  3. Kansas                   15-3     25.19    83.98
  4. Seton Hall               15-3     24.80    82.69
  5. Kentucky                 17-1     24.49    81.64
  6. Ohio St.                 16-3     24.29    80.99
  7. Baylor                   16-1     23.88    79.61
  8. Illinois                 15-3     23.83    79.45
  9. Michigan St.             15-3     23.69    78.97
 10. Connecticut              14-3     23.66    78.89

Syracuse is listed as a "lock" for the tournament. This suggests that whatever they do from here, they should make the tournament. If they go on an 11-game losing streak, finishing 20-11 and 7-11 in the Big East, would they make the tournament? With a first-round loss in the Big East tournament, they'd be in doubt. But their score of 35.17 is well above the 30.0 water mark. By contrast Murray State, who at 18-0 has played three non-Division I opponents, is only #37 with 17.25 points; if they finish with even a couple of losses, they might be in doubt as an at-large if they don't win their tournament.

Now, our Zeitgeist ratings, where recent play has a huge effect on the rankings. Here Baylor holds at #2, taking a big hit in their rating but staying just ahead of Kansas, who jumps from #9 yesterday to #3 today.

prev  #  Team                      rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 20-0   64.42  W 71-63 #156 Pittsburgh       
  2   2. Baylor                   17-1   45.85  L 92-74 #9 Kansas             
  9   3. Kansas                   15-3   45.75  W 92-74 #2 Baylor             
  4   4. Missouri                 17-1   42.49  W 70-51 #163 Texas A&M        
  3   5. Kentucky                 17-1   42.09  ..W 65-62 #145 Tennessee      
  5   6. Creighton                16-2   40.18  .W 90-71 #188 Southern Illinois
  6   7. Michigan St.             15-3   39.56  ..L 81-74 #113 Northwestern   
  7   8. Murray St.               18-0   35.76  ..W 82-74 #137 Tennessee Tech 
  8   9. New Mexico               15-2   34.46  ..W 72-62 #56 Wyoming         
 10  10. Illinois                 15-3   33.71  ......W 79-74 #11 Ohio St.    

Syracuse retains the top spot with a win over Pitt, something that would have been impressive last year but gains them little this season. #4 Missouri was also active, beating Texas A&M to move ahead of Kentucky. The rest of the top ten didn't play Monday (you can count the .'s to see when their last game was). Creighton shows up here as the top mid-major team, two spots ahead of Murray State. Creighton's schedule is much tougher than the Racers'.

Undefeated teams: Will they finish that way?

Syracuse (20-0) and Murray State (18-0) are undefeated and each has a good shot at finishing that way, but for different reasons.

Syracuse could finish 31-0 because they're good—better than any of their future opponents according to the Strength ratings. #16 Georgetown is their toughest test, and they get the Hoyas at home. They face #32 Connecticut on the road, which might be a harder win. Leveraging Ken Pomeroy's work, Syracuse has a 12% chance of going unbeaten. That's before the conference tournament, of course, which would add another three tough games and cuts those odds at least in half, leaving probably a 4-5% chance of the Orange entering the NCAA tournament unbeaten.

Murray State has an even better chance, but due mostly to weakness of schedule as they play in the Ohio Valley conference. They will be heavily favored in all of the rest of their currently-scheduled games, so much so that Kenpom.com gives them about a 3 in 8 chance of finishing unbeaten at 28-0. The Ohio Valley tournament format means the Racers would need two more wins, reducing their odds to approximately 30% to go 30-0.

The Racers will also play a Bracketbusters game, and they'll probably get a tough opponent, tougher than any team in the Ohio Valley. It probably won't be anyone tougher than Memphis, who they beat on the road, and they're listed as a host team. Still, this one game could cut their odds in half or more; we'll assume a tough but beatable opponent, since most of the better teams are "hosts", and a 1/3 reduction to 20%.

This means that the NCAA tournament will probably not have any undefeated entrants. There is about a 1 in 4 chance that there will be one, and only around a 1 in 100 chance of both teams being unblemished going in. The fact that both teams will be the favorite in all the rest of their games gives us hope, however. It's been far too long since UNLV did it in 1991.