SportsRatings: College Basketball

The Big East came up the top conference by all three measures we use for determining regular + postseason performance, edging the second place Big Ten. Only when we adjust for conference size does the Big Ten stand on top.

In the chart below we give a point for NCAA tournament bids and wins, which adds a measure of regular-season quality, so the 16-strong Big East gets a hefty advantage from the beginning. The Big Ten ended up a distant second after a strong run up to the Sweet Sixteen. The Big Twelve, who placed six members of their 10-team league in the tournament, could have taken 2nd place but Kansas fell in the final. The SEC was a strong 4th as the Wildcats finished as the #1 team. The ACC was far behind at #5.

Here are the standings for Best Conference as ranked by teams in the tournament, and advancement in the tournament, color-coded in ROY G. BIV fashion, with 1 point for each bid and game won (play-in games don't count):

Teams in tourney Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final Four Title Game Champion

Big East            9       6        4      2   1
Big Ten            6              5      4 1 1
Big 12             6            4     2    2   1 1
SEC             4       3       2     2   1 1 1
ACC            5       3      2   1
Atl 10        4    2 1
Mt West         4      1
WCC       3 1
MAC    1 1 1
MVC        2 1
Pac-12       2   1
Col. Ath   1 1
MEAC 1 1
Patriot 1 1
Ohio Val   1 1
C-USA        2
Metro Atl    2

The Atlantic 10 ranked as the best mid-major conference by this measure, outpacing the Mountain West who also started with four teams. The West Coast Conference placed 3 teams in the tournament but only Gonzaga reached the Round of 32.

The Mid-American Conference was paced by Ohio in the Sweet Sixteen, putting them ahead of the Pac-12—normally considered one of the "Big Six"—and mid-major Missouri Valley.

The Colonial Athletic, MEAC, Patriot, and Ohio Valley all advanced their only teams to the Round of 32, where they all lost. The C-USA and Metro Atlantic both started with two teams but both lost in the first round; in the Metro Atlantic's case, one was a play-in teams (Iona). All the other conferences only had one bid, who lost in the first round.

Pure NCAA Tournament Performance: Same basic result, but a closer race

Since conferences with more bids have more opportunity for wins, the chart below better captures Best NCAA Tournament Performance, with points awarded solely for tournament wins:

Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final Four Title Game Champion

Big East    6       4    2 1
Big Ten        5      4    1 1
SEC          3    2     2   1 1 1
Big 12       4     2    2 1 1
ACC        3      2   1
Atl 10      2 1
MAC    1 1
Mt West    1
WCC      1
Pac-12     1
MVC    1
Col. Ath   1
MEAC 1
Patriot 1
Ohio Val   1

Here the Big East's win over the Big Ten was closer without their head start, but still they pulled away from the Big Ten. They had the most wins of any conference in the first round, tied with the Big Ten with 4 teams in the Sweet Sixteen, and tied with the SEC and Big Twelve with two in the Elite Eight. Louisville gave them a Final Four berth. The Big Ten was closing in until the Elite Eight, where Michigan State and Wisconsin lost head-to-head battles with SEC foes. Ohio State beat Cincinnati to put the Big Ten in the Final Four, but they didn't advance.

Kentucky's win over Kansas gave the SEC the tiebreaker over the Big Twelve for third place. Again the ACC is fifth, the Atlantic 10 sixth, and after that only the MAC could claim a Sweet Sixteen entrant.

Adding the NIT to measure Top-to-Bottom

Well, call it top-to-lower-middle, perhaps; the NCAA and NIT tournaments take pretty much every relevant team in the nation, 100 of them total, and these selections plus their performance encapsulates a conference's quality in a given year. Still biased somewhat toward the larger conferences naturally, so we can say that this chart measures the conferences that have the most decent-to-great teams in the country.

Best Conferences: Two points per NCAA bid and win; one point per NIT bid and win

Conference    NIT   NCAA Total
Big East       2     44     46
Big Ten        9     34     43
SEC            5     28     33
Big 12         0     32     32
ACC            2     22     24
Atlantic 10    7     14     21
Pac-12        14      6     20
Mtn West       0     10     10
MVC            4      6     10
WCC            0      8      8
MAC            1      6      7
Colonial       3      4      7
C-USA          2      4      6
Patriot        2      4      6
MEAC           1      4      5
Sun Belt       3      2      5
WAC            3      2      5
Ohio Val       0      4      4
Metro Atl      0      4      4
Horizon        2      2      4
America East   1      2      3
Southland      1      2      3
Summit         1      2      3

Again the Big East wins, but only by a hair. With only one team (Seton Hall) in the NIT, the Big East leaves 6 teams out of the two main tournaments. The Big Ten's 3 berths meant that 9 of their 12 teams were in action, and Minnesota made it to the NIT final. They can fairly lay claim to the true "top-to-bottom" title, perhaps.

The SEC put four teams in the NIT, and even though only one of them (Tennessee) won a game, along with Kentucky's national title they're probably in the right spot at #3; the Big Twelve had a formidable top six, but no teams made the NIT. Same with fifth-place ACC, who had five in the NCAA and just one in the NIT.

The Atlantic 10 did just well enough to take sixth place. They had a decent NCAA run with a Sweet Sixteen team in Xavier, and put four more teams in the NIT, with UMass making the NIT final four.

That was just enough to hold off the Pac-12, who dominated the NIT to make up for their terrible NCAA placing. With four teams in, three made the final eight, Washington the final four, and Stanford won the whole thing.

After that there's a big dropoff. We have the Mountain West and Missouri Valley tied for 8th, the MAC and Colonial Athletic tied for 10th, and the C-USA and Patriot tied for 12th. A handful of other conferences scored 3-5 points, and all 9 others had only their single NCAA auto-bid who lost in the first game.

Correcting for Big-Conference Bias

The Big East has an advantage when you aggregate performance rather than use winning percentage. The Big Twelve—now down to 10 teams—is similarly hurt. If we divide the "points" from above by number of conference teams, we get a somewhat different order:

Conference    NIT   NCAA Total   TPT (Total per team)
Big Ten        9     34     43    3.6
Big 12         0     32     32    3.2
Big East       2     44     46    2.9
SEC            5     28     33    2.8
ACC            2     22     24    2.0
Pac-12        14      6     20    1.7
Atlantic 10    7     14     21    1.5

The Big Ten (with 12 teams) is a fairly big leader in total points per team, while the Big Twelve (now with 10 teams) finishes 2nd. The 16-team Big East falls to third, just ahead of the SEC. The Pac-12 finally joins the "Big Six" again, mostly because the Atlantic 10 (with 14 teams) drops a bit.

Posted on April 03, 2012 at 12:25 AM in analysis | Permalink | Comments (1)

April 01, 2012

2012 NCAA Tournament Championship Game Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) Kentucky vs. (2) Kansas

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 37-2
Conference: SEC

vs.

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 2
Record: 32-6
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Monday, April 2
Time: 9:23 pm Eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA

In long-term basketball history, it's UK vs. KU, the two winningest programs of all time. In more recent history, it's John Calipari vs. Bill Self once again for the national championship.

Kentucky Kansas

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #1    Strength:        #4
Neutral court:   #1               Neutral court:   #3
Partial Credit: #1               Partial Credit: #5

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(p):      #1               Sagarin(p):    #3
Pomeroy:         #1               Pomeroy:         #4
   Offense: #2                      Offense: #16
   Defense: #11                      Defense: #4
LRMC:            #1*               LRMC:            #3*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #1               2nd half/season: #4
NCAA Tournament: #2              NCAA Tournament: #6

Season overview: Kentucky (37-2)

Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Loyola MD+24, Lamar+22, Louisville+7, Alabama+6, Florida+20, @Vanderbilt+6, Vanderbilt+9, @Florida+15, =Florida+3, =Western Kentucky+15, =Iowa St.+16, =Indiana+12, =Baylor+12, =Louisville+8
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (9): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Louisville+7, Florida+20, @Florida+15, =Florida+3, =Indiana+12, =Baylor+12, =Louisville+8
Wins vs. Final Four teams (3): =Kansas+10, Louisville+7, =Louisville+8
Losses to tournament teams (2): @Indiana-1, =Vanderbilt-7
Other losses (0): none

Key Info: What can we say about Kentucky? That they're #1 in the polls, and #1 in nearly every power rating? That they ended the year 32-2 and looked unbeatable—or did, until Vanderbilt became the first SEC team to do the trick. They also seemed unbeatable at 8-0 before Indiana did the trick.

We could go on about Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis (14.3 points, 10 rebounds), or their other super underclassmen Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, all of whom average in double figures. Jones led the team with 22 against Western Kentucky, while freshman guard Marquis Teague had 24 in the Iowa State win.

Among the Sweet Sixteen survivors, they beat 1-seed North Carolina, 2-seed Kansas, 4-seed Louisville (now twice), and 7-seed Florida three times. The one Sweet Sixteen team they lost to is Indiana, on the road, on a last-second shot; they avenged that with a 102-90 win that was much higher-scoring than the earlier 73-72 loss. Kidd-Gilchrist led with 19 against Baylor while Davis had 11 rebounds as UK reached the Final Four.

Kentucky beat two of the other Final Four teams during the regular season. They topped Kansas 75-65 back in mid-November in Madison Square Garden, and in late December they beat Louisville 69-62 in Lexington. At the time both Kentucky and Louisville were 12-1 and ranked #3 and #4 in the nation. Their repeat against the Cardinals was more of the same in the end, though they lost a sizeable lead in the 2nd half before recovering to win. Once again it was Anthony Davis leading with 18 points and 14 rebounds.

**************************************************************

Season overview: Kansas (32-6)

Wins vs. tournament teams (17): =Georgetown+4, South Florida+28, Long Beach St.+8, Ohio St.+11, Kansas St.+18, Iowa St.+9, Baylor+18, @Texas+3, @Baylor+14, @Kansas St.+6, Missouri+OT, Texas+10, =Detroit+15, =Purdue+3, =North Carolina St.+3, =North Carolina+13, =Ohio St.+2
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (6): Ohio St.+11, Baylor+18, @Baylor+14, =North Carolina St.+3, =North Carolina+13, =Ohio St.+2
Wins vs. Final Four teams (2): Ohio St.+11, =Ohio St.+2
Losses to tournament teams (6): =Kentucky-10, =Duke-7, Davidson-6, @Iowa St.-8, @Missouri-3, Baylor-9
Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Thomas Robinson is a national player of the year candidate for Kansas, and indeed was recently announced as a unanimous 1st team All-American. He averages 17.9 points per game, just a hair higher than teammate Tyshawn Taylor's 17.3. But he also grabs 11.8 rebounds a game, good enough for #2 in the nation. The Jayhawks rated equally good on defense and offense before the tournament, but their defensive efficiency has increased while they've slid on offense; they are still in the top 25 on both sides of the court.

Kansas lost three non-conference games this year, which is somewhat unusual. They fell to #1 seed Kentucky, #2 seed Duke, and were just 7-3 after Davidson upset them at home. But the Jayhawks righted the ship by going on a 10-game winning streak. They beat 1-seed Ohio State and 3-seed Georgetown in non-conference play, and were 3-2 combined against 2-seed Missouri and 3-seed Baylor.

Robinson had 16 points and 10 rebounds against 15-seed Detroit. In the very close win over Purdue, where the Jayhawks trailed the entire game, Elijah Johnson led with 18 points while Robinson had 13 rebounds. Robinson led against N.C. State with 18. Taylor led against UNC with 22 points despite going 0 for 5 on three pointers; in fact, he is 0-for-17 for the tournament.

In Kansas' earlier game against Ohio State on December 10, Robinson was 7 of 9 for 21 points and Taylor dished out 13 assists as the Jayhawks won 78-67. They were playing at home, however, and the Buckeyes were without Jared Sullinger. Kansas' defense forced Sullinger into a poor game in the rematch, however, as he made just 5 of 19 shots to finish with 13 points. The Jayhawks fought back from 13 down and in another weird tournament-game finish, held on with seconds to go. Kansas lost to Kentucky in mid-November, 75-65; this time they'll have to flip the script instead of repeat it.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: The two winningest programs in college basketball history will be facing each other on Monday night. Kentucky is #1 with 2,089 wins; Kansas is 2nd with 2,070 as of April 1st according to Wikipedia.

The coaching matchup is also of interest. In 2008, Bill Self's Jayhawks beat John Calipari's Memphis Tigers 75-68 in overtime to win the national championship. Memphis held a small lead most of the game but the Jayhawks tied it at the end of regulation and won the game. Given some of the teams' tournament games—where Kentucky almost let Louisville back in, and how Kansas trailed all game against Purdue and Ohio State before taking a late lead—is history about to repeat itself?

Kentucky is #1 across the board in the power ratings, while Kansas is anywhere from #3 to #5. So the Wildcats will be the favorite, but then again so was Ohio State and in any one game, anything can happen.

Personnel-wise, both teams are loaded with talent, but it's generally recognized that Kentucky's is better. So much so that the speculation over the last few weeks has been whether the Wildcats could beat an NBA team. Kansas has unanimous all-American Thomas Robinson, while Kentucky counters with projected #1 draft pick Anthony Davis. The Wildcats have a very young team with three freshman and two sophomores starting; Kansas is a veteran team, especially by today's standards, starting four juniors and a senior. That experience is probably what made the difference in their close games and is their main advantage on Monday.

When the teams met previously (November 15th), all five Kentucky starters were in double figures while only Taylor (22) and Robinson (11) managed that for the Jayhawks; the Wildcats also blocked 13 shots. Kansas led for most of the first half until Kentucky tied it at 28; in the second half UK pulled away from KU.

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by 6

Power rating spread

Kentucky by 2.8

% Chance to win

Kentucky: 58%
Kansas: 42%

Kentucky is a somewhat surprisingly high 6 point favorite by the oddsmakers' reckoning. By our Strength power rating it's about a 3-point advantage, and we might expect that the Jayhawks would get some credit for their clutch play. On the other hand, there is the notion that Kansas has been quite fortunate; they could easily have been drummed out of the tournament in the Round of 32. And the previous meeting between the teams, where Kentucky held a 17 point lead at one time, has to color the perception of the rematch.

Kansas' defensive play is the one area where they rank ahead of Kentucky, and it's a slim advantage. In all sub-season samples Kentucky still maintains their slight edge, and overall they win nearly 3 of 5 game-performance comparisons.

Bottom line: It's being treated like a foregone conclusion that John Calipari will get his first national title, after which the Wildcats' starters and some of their bench will be vacuumed up in the early rounds of the NBA draft. Most assume Kentucky, who has won every tournament game except Louisville by double-digits, should knock off Kansas, who won by 3 or fewer points three times. But many NCAA champions have had close calls along the way, and anyone can win a given game. Even if that game happens to be the final of the Final Four.

Kansas is capable of playing with Kentucky, but they need to keep it close to have a chance at another end-game miracle. If they get down by 17 again—or even 13 like they did against Ohio State—it's over. The Wildcats could blow them out.

But we're picking one last upset. Having gone against Kansas a few times and having seen them somehow win, we think that this will be one of the 2 in 5 games in which the Jayhawks prevail. The last game between these teams was over four months ago, and while Kentucky's underclassman stars have only become better players, Kansas' overachieving upperclassmen have become a much better team. They won't give up if they get behind, and Bill Self might be able to spoil Calipari's dream season one more time.

Final prediction: Kansas 71, Kentucky 68

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on April 01, 2012 at 12:51 PM in analysis, Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (1)

March 28, 2012

2012 NIT Championship Game Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (3) Stanford vs. (6) Minnesota

Stanford Cardinal
NIT Seed: 3
Record: 25-11
Conference: Pac-12

vs.

Minnesota Golden Gophers
NIT Seed: 6
Record: 23-14
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Thursday, March 29
Time: 7:00 pm Eastern
Location: New York, NY

The National Invitation Tournament final in Madison Square Garden.

Stanford Minnesota

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #40    Strength:        #42
Neutral court:   #39               Neutral court:   #37
Partial Credit: #47              Partial Credit: #39

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(p):      #35               Sagarin(p):    #37
Pomeroy:         #38               Pomeroy:         #35
   Offense: #84                      Offense: #51
   Defense: #24                      Defense: #44
LRMC:            #56*              LRMC:            #72*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #53               2nd half/season: #24
NIT performance: #18             NIT performance: #7

Season overview: Stanford (25-11)

Wins vs. NCAA tournament teams (5): Colorado St.+12, North Carolina St.+4, Colorado+20, @Colorado+24, California+5
Wins vs. NIT teams (4): Cleveland St.+9, Illinois St.+OT, Nevada+18, =Massachusetts+10
Losses to NCAA teams (3): @Syracuse-6, @California-10, =California-6,
Losses to NIT teams (4): @Oregon-11, @Washington-13, Arizona-13, Oregon-4,
Other losses (4): Butler-5, @Washington St.-12, @UCLA-11, @Utah-1

Key Info: Stanford's season was a lot like many Pac-12 members. They had a decent pre-season but without a lot of wins over top teams; instead they beat the likes of Central Arkansas, UC Davis, Pacific, Seattle, San Diego, and Bethune Cookman, leading to a strength of schedule that left their RPI low compared to their 10-2 record. They did beat Colorado State and North Carolina State, two teams that would end up with 11 seeds in the NCAA tournament. And they fared pretty well against Syracuse.

When they got to the Pac-12 season they, like most teams in the conference, seemingly randomly won and lost games. They started out 5-1 but fell to Washington State at the start of a 1-5 stretch. Their last three Pac-12 games say it all: First they beat eventual Pac-12 tourney champ Colorado by 20+ points for the 2nd time; lost to 6-25 Utah; then beat the league's only other NCAA team, Cal, to finish 10-8 in conference. Cal later beat them in the Pac-12 tournament.

Because the Pac-12 was so weak this year, 10-8 and 21-11 didn't even rate them as a bubble team, as it would in most years. But they did get a decent seed in the NIT and got to play Cleveland State, Illinois State, and Nevada at home, which was probably the difference in the Illinois State game. They beat UMass handily to make the final. Freshman guard Chasson Randle leads the team in scoring, with senior forward Josh Owens is #2 and the rebounding leader.

**************************************************************

Season overview: Minnesota (23-14)

Wins vs. NCAA tournament teams (2): South Dakota St.+15, @Indiana+3
Wins vs. NIT teams (7): Bucknell+12, Northwestern+23, =Northwestern+OT, @La Salle+11, @Miami FL+18, @Middle Tennessee+6, =Washington+OT
Losses to NCAA teams (9): @Michigan-5, Purdue-13, @Michigan St.-16, Wisconsin-OT, Ohio St.-10, Michigan St.-5, Indiana-19, @Wisconsin-7, =Michigan+OT
Losses to NIT teams (4): =Dayton-16, Iowa-2, @Iowa-4, @Northwestern-11
Other losses (1): @Illinois-OT

Key Info: Minnesota lost two key players before their strong NIT run, and neither seems to have really affected them. Trevor Mbakwe was the team's leading scorer through the first seven games, but they've long since adjusted to his injury absence. The other loss was Ralph Sampson III, who started 28 games but hasn't played since before the Big Ten tournament. Without him they are 8-1, however, their only loss being an overtime loss to Michigan.

Right now the Gophers are playing by far the best basketball of the season. They only won four straight games twice before. In the first stretch they beat NIT-bound Bucknell and NCAA-bound South Dakota State and four lesser foes. After their first loss to Dayton, they beat Virginia Tech and five cupcakes including 6-26 USC from the Pac-12.

Then came the first of their losing streaks and they started the Big Ten season 0-4. They played their best 3 consecutive games after that, upsetting Indiana, handling Penn State easily on the road, and thrashing Northwestern at home. But they closed the Big Ten by losing six straight, five of those losses to NCAA teams. Beating Nebraska in the season finale (during which they lost Sampson) and defeating Northwestern in overtime in the rubber match in the Big Ten tournament probably saved their NIT bid.

Once in the NIT the Gophers shined, with impressive victories at La Salle, Miami, and Middle Tennessee. Matched against Pac-12 regular season champ Washington, the Gophers took the lead, then saw the Huskies catch up and send the game into overtime. They won by a point as Andre Hollins scored 5 points in the final period and 20 in all. Forward Rodney Williams is the only Gopher that averages in double figures for the year.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: Both teams have had rocky seasons, as is typical for NIT teams. But Stanford's season looks closer to an NCAA team than an NIT entrant, as their record and résumé might be that of a 9- or 10-seed in the Big Dance in most years. The trouble is that most of their significant wins were scored in the Pac-12, which has a poor record against other conferences this year.

As expected, though, the Pac-12 did very well in the NIT, placing two teams in the final four. It's telling, however, that Minnesota—who finished tied for 9th in the Big Ten—was essentially an even match for Washington, the #1 Pac-12 team in the standings. Stanford finished 7th in the conference.

The Golden Gophers had some bad stretches playing in what was probably the best conference, top to bottom, this year. It's hard to diagnose their performance—why the three great games in the middle of the season? Why was there no real decline after losing their top scorer early? How have they played better without Ralph Sampson III?—but they are doing well right now for whatever reason.

It's likely that the Big Ten season prepared them well for what they had to do—win three road games against good teams, and then beat a conference champion. Stanford, too, played opposition that challenged them every week, as the Pac-12 had seven teams with winning conference records.

So whatever each team's difficulties during the season, they are playing well right now. Minnesota might be playing a little better. Stanford won their first three NIT games at home, while the Gophers had to go on the road.

Vegas Line:

Pick 'em

Power rating spread

Stanford by 0.2

% Chance to win

Stanford: 51.4%
Minnesota: 48.6%

How even is this matchup? So even that the oddsmakers won't even commit to a favorite. And our Strength power rating gives Stanford an edge of less than 1/2 a point, which essentially says the same thing—that there is no favorite in this game.

Our game-comparison system shows a slight edge for Stanford, with 51.4% of the performance combinations favoring the Cardinal. Many of Stanford's best game ratings came early in the year, however.

Though our Strength rating has Stanford two spots higher, when corrected for projected performance on a neutral court (most teams play more home games and so might be skewed a bit if they have better than normal home performance), Minnesota is a couple of notches ahead. The Gophers also come out ahead in our Partial-Credit system.

The Cardinal are on top in Sagarin's predictor, and in the LRMC. But Minnesota is ahead in Pomeroy's ratings, where they top Stanford in offensive efficiency...but lag them on defense.

In short, a very contradictory bunch of data.

But looking at recent performance, Minnesota gets the edge. Stanford played better overall in the first half of the season, while Minnesota improved in recent months, their 6-game losing streak notwithstanding. And looking at the last 4-6 games, while both teams are doing very well the Gophers have been great. In the last four games—which encompasses each team's NIT run—Minnesota has been playing like the 7th best team in the country, Stanford #18.

Bottom line: Expect a good game with strong performances from both teams, as they are playing like top 25 squads. Minnesota is a little bit more on fire at present, and our pick tilts to them.

Final prediction: Minnesota 66, Stanford 62

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 28, 2012 at 02:01 PM in analysis, Game previews | Permalink | Comments (0)

March 26, 2012

2012 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (2) Kansas vs. (2) Ohio State

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 2 (overall seed #5)
Record: 31-6
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Ohio State Buckeyes
Seed: 2 (overall seed #7)
Record: 31-7
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Saturday, March 31
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA

Both of these teams were very strong 2-seeds but just missed out on being top seeds; soon, one of them will be playing for the national championship.

Kansas Ohio State

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #4 Strength:        #2
Neutral court:   #3               Neutral court:   #2
Partial Credit: #5               Partial Credit: #2

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(p):      #3               Sagarin(p):      #1
Pomeroy:         #4               Pomeroy:         #2
   Offense: #16                      Offense: #7
   Defense: #4                      Defense: #2
LRMC:          #3*               LRMC:            #2*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #4              2nd half/season: #2
NCAA tournament: #8           NCAA tournament: #3

Season overview: Kansas (31-6)

Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =Georgetown+4, South Florida+28, Long Beach St.+8, Ohio St.+11, Kansas St.+18, Iowa St.+9, Baylor+18, @Texas+3, @Baylor+14, @Kansas St.+6, Missouri+OT, Texas+10, =Detroit+15, =Purdue+3, =North Carolina St.+3, =North Carolina+13
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (5): Ohio St.+11, Baylor+18, @Baylor+14, =North Carolina St.+3, =North Carolina+13
Wins vs. Final Four teams (1): Ohio St.+11
Losses to tournament teams (6): =Kentucky-10, =Duke-7, Davidson-6, @Iowa St.-8, @Missouri-3, Baylor-9
Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Thomas Robinson is a national player of the year candidate for Kansas, and indeed was just announced as a unanimous 1st team All-American. He averages 17.9 points per game, just a hair higher than teammate Tyshawn Taylor's 17.3. But he also grabs 11.8 rebounds a game, good enough for #2 in the nation. The Jayhawks rated equally good on defense and offense before the tournament, but their defensive efficiency has increased while they've slid on offense; they are still in the top 25 on both sides of the court.

**************************************************************

Season overview: Ohio State (31-7)

Wins vs. tournament teams (14): Florida+7, Duke+22, Lamar+20, Indiana+17, Michigan+15, @Wisconsin+6, Purdue+3, @Michigan St.+2, =Purdue+17, =Michigan+22, =Loyola MD+19, =Gonzaga+7, =Cincinnati+15, =Syracuse+7
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (6): Florida+7, Indiana+17, @Wisconsin+6, @Michigan St.+2, =Cincinnati+15, =Syracuse+7
Wins vs. Final Four teams (0): none
Losses to tournament teams (6): @Kansas-11, @Indiana-4, Michigan St.-10, @Michigan-5, Wisconsin-3, =Michigan St.-4
Other losses (1): @Illinois-5

Key Info: For most of the year, Ohio State ranked #1 in our Strength power rating, and was #1 on many other power ratings around the web. This was due to their incredible performance over their first seven games which culminated in a 22 point win over Duke. For the next two they lacked Jared Sullinger and lost to Kansas. After that they hit their early highs at times, but not with the same consistency, and had some lows, too, the lowest probably being the loss to Illinois in January. Eventually, Kentucky caught up with the Buckeyes and overtook them at the #1 position. During the tournament it's become about even again as Ohio State has played very well so far.

Sullinger continued where he left off last year but didn't really add anything to his arsenal, giving teams a better chance to defend him. Still, he basically replicated last year's numbers with 17.6 ppg and 9.2 rebounds and was a first team All-American selection for the 2nd straight year. In the three games he missed or hardly played in, the Buckeyes were worse; with those games excluded, they average out as the #1 team, and maintain a top-2 defense.

The rest of the squad is no slouch, though, with Deshaun Thomas and William Buford averaging a combined 30 points. In fact, against Loyola MD, Thomas had 31 by himself, and Buford added 17 of his own. Thomas had 12 rebounds and Sullinger 11. Sullinger and Thomas both had 18 points against Gonzaga, with point Aaron Craft adding 17 points and 10 assists. Thomas led again with 26 in the Cincinnati win, while Sullinger dropped in 23 with 11 rebounds. And Sullinger had 19 in the win over Syracuse.

So when we look at the previous contest against Kansas, we have to note that Sullinger was absent, and that made a big difference. Without him they score as 11 points worse than they do with him; normally, a 3-game sample doesn't say much and an 11-point difference seems too big for any player, but Sullinger might really be worth that much to his team.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: Both 2-seeds knocked off a 1-seed that was short-handed; Syracuse was without center Fab Melo, and North Carolina missed Kendall Marshall. But both of them are deserving of their Final Four berth and either could have been a 1-seed if things had gone slightly differently at the end of the year.

In fact, both are in the top 4 in most power ratings currently, and Ohio State has been in and out of the #1 spot all year.

The teams met 3 1/2 months ago in Lawrence and the Jayhawks gave the Buckeyes their first loss. In that contest Ohio State was the short-handed team, missing their most valuable player, Jared Sullinger.

Vegas Line:

Ohio State by 2 1/2

Power rating spread

Ohio State by 2.7

% Chance to win

Kansas: 41%
Ohio State: 59%

The Buckeyes narrowly outrank Kansas in our power ratings...but they outrank the Jayhawks in pretty much every power rating. There is near-universal agreement that Ohio State has played better—very, very slightly better—than Kansas, on average, this year. They even rank better in both offensive and defensive play. In game-comparisons, the Buckeyes win almost 3/5 of the time despite that very small edge, as it's very consistent.

One of the times in which they did not play better was the first meeting between the teams in December. The Jayhawks won by 11 points; how does that square with our power rating making the Buckeyes a near 3 point favorite?

Actually it squares perfectly. Without Sullinger, Ohio State is 10 points worse than their average in all games, with or without Sullinger. So instead of a 3 point favorite, without Sullinger they'd be a 7 point underdog. Add another 4 points for playing at home and Kansas is an 11-point favorite with Sullinger missing. That is, in fact, how much the Jayhawks won by in Lawrence.

Counting all games, and on a neutral court, the projected result takes a 14-point swing toward the Buckeyes, making OSU a 2 1/2 to 3 point favorite. The Vegas line matches that estimate. If we count only games with Sullinger present—that is, removing the 3 games where he didn't play—Ohio State gains an extra point and become a 4-point favorite by our Strength power rating.

Bottom line: Without Sullinger in the paint, Kansas' own superstar had a field day and led his team to a win. Things are going to be a lot more equal under the bucket this time around, especially on a neutral court. It should be a great clash of two 1st team All-Americans; we favor the Buckeyes to make the title game.

Final prediction: Ohio State 74, Kansas 70

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 26, 2012 at 11:28 PM in analysis, Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2012 NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) Kentucky vs. (4) Louisville

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 36-2
Conference: SEC

vs.

Louisville Cardinals
Seed: 4
Record: 30-9
Conference: Big East

Date: Saturday, March 31
Time: 6:09 pm Eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA

Not just a Final Four game, but a rivalry game, and one featuring Rick Pitino against his old team, and against the same coach he beat in the Final Four in 1996.

Kentucky Louisville

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #1    Strength:        #20
Neutral court:   #1               Neutral court:   #19
Partial Credit: #1               Partial Credit: #18

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(p):      #2               Sagarin(p):    #14
Pomeroy:         #1               Pomeroy:         #15
   Offense: #2                      Offense: #101
   Defense: #11                      Defense: #1
LRMC:            #1*               LRMC:            #23*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #1               2nd half/season: #18
NCAA Tournament: #2              NCAA Tournament: #5

Season overview: Kentucky (36-2)

Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Loyola MD+24, Lamar+22, Louisville+7, Alabama+6, Florida+20, @Vanderbilt+6, Vanderbilt+9, @Florida+15, =Florida+3, =Western Kentucky+15, =Iowa St.+16, =Indiana+12, =Baylor+12
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (8): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Louisville+7, Florida+20, @Florida+15, =Florida+3, =Indiana+12, =Baylor+12
Wins vs. Final Four teams (2): =Kansas+10, Louisville+7
Losses to tournament teams (2): @Indiana-1, =Vanderbilt-7
Other losses (0): none

Among the Sweet Sixteen survivors, they've beaten 1-seed North Carolina, 2-seed Kansas, 4-seed Louisville, and 7-seed Florida three times. The one Sweet Sixteen team they lost to is Indiana, on the road, on a last-second shot; they avenged that with a 102-90 win that was much higher-scoring than the earlier 73-72 loss. Kidd-Gilchrist led with 19 against Baylor while Davis had 11 rebounds as UK reached the Final Four.

**************************************************************

Season overview: Louisville (30-9)

Wins vs. tournament teams (15): Lamar+20, Ohio+5, Long Beach St.+13, Vanderbilt+OT, Memphis+8, Western Kentucky+10, Connecticut+21, @West Virginia+3, =Marquette+13, =Notre Dame+14, =Cincinnati+6, =Davidson+7, =New Mexico+3, =Michigan St.+13, =Florida+4
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (5): Ohio+5, =Marquette+13, =Cincinnati+6, =Michigan St.+13, =Florida+4
Wins vs. Final Four teams (0): none
Losses to tournament teams (8): Georgetown-3, @Kentucky-7, Notre Dame-OT, @Marquette-11, Syracuse-1, @Cincinnati-4, South Florida-7, @Syracuse-9
Other losses (1): @Providence-31

Key Info: For a 4-seed, Louisville has an astonishing number of wins over tournament teams—15 after their three tourney wins. That's a number usually seen with #1 seeds, and indeed, it matches Kentucky's total. True, the Big East placed 9 teams, and five of their six regular season, non-conference wins are over non-major conference foes, but one of those teams (Ohio) made the Sweet Sixteen. The team hit rough patches twice—losing 5 of 7, then 4 of 6—but each time recovered with a string of wins.

They have 8 tourney team losses, too, leaving just one non-tournament loss. That was a 90-59 debacle at Providence that still shows up like a sore thumb on their chart. Other than that oddity, they haven't been any more unpredictable than your average team. They're basically a poor offensive team (Kyle Kuric leads with 13.4 in a "balanced" attack, meaning in this case low-scoring efficiency) with a great defense that carries them. Whether they're able to press and trap or not, they disrupt teams' offenses.

The team's star is point guard Peyton Siva, who we figured would one of the breakout stars of the tournament if Louisville managed a deep run; the Cardinals did manage a deep run, and Siva led with 17 in the Davidson win. Although he had just 6 against New Mexico, two were on a late drive down the middle that broke the Lobos' back and he iced the game with two clutch free throws. He had 9 assists against Michigan State and 8 against Florida.

The Cardinals took things to another level against Michigan State, beating back the Spartans' every comeback attempt and harrassing them with pesky defense. Chane Behanan led in scoring with 15 and had 9 rebounds; big man Gorgui Dieng also had 9 boards and was key on defense with 7 blocked shots. Louisville overcame an 11-point deficit in the last 10 minutes to beat Florida for Rick Pitino's 6th Final Four berth.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: Both coaches have been to a lot of Final Fours. Rick Pitino has been there once with Providence, three times with Kentucky, and now twice with Louisville. John Calipari made it with Massachusetts in 1996 (losing to Pitino's Wildcats), in 2008 with Memphis, and the last two seasons with Kentucky. That's 10 times between the two coaches in this game.

Louisville is clearly the overachiever here, given their struggles during two periods of the season. But early in the year the teams were seen as roughly equals, and they played a close game on Kentucky's home court.

Louisville's defense is the key to their success. It ranks as the most efficient in the country, and it will be a far cry from what Kentucky faced against Baylor. In fact, the teams Kentucky faced in the tournament so far rank #127, #58, #62, and #39. Meanwhile Louisville just faced the #3 offense in Florida, so they will be ready for Kentucky's #2 ranked offense.

On the other side of the court, however, Kentucky has a big edge: they play the 11th most efficient defense, while Louisville's offense ranks 101st. In the first game, Russ Smith was nearly all of the Cardinal offense, scoring 30 of their 62 points, while Kentucky had three players in double figures. If Smith has a poor game, Louisville may struggle to score. They'll probably shoot better than the dismal 32% they managed in the first game, but then again Kentucky will probably top their own 30% clip.

The Wildcats may try to speed the game up like they did in their rematch with Indiana. Although the pace of the two games was similar (70 possessions to 73), the first meeting resulted in a 73-72 loss (145 total points), the rematch a 102-90 win (192 total points) with over 20 more field goals attempted. It was also more physical, with Kentucky attempting 20 more free throws the second time around.

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by 8 1/2

Power rating spread

Kentucky by 8.3

% Chance to win

Kentucky: 73%
Louisville: 27%

Kentucky is facing about the same level of team it did against Baylor, but with a very different challenge—the Cardinal defense. But Kentucky also plays good defense; the teams' earlier meeting was defense-driven, with both teams shooting very poorly (a combined 7 of 34 from the 3-point line).

It was also a very physical game, with a total of 70 free throw attempts resulting in 32 of Kentucky's points and 18 of Louisville's. The attempts should be more even this time with the game on a neutral court, but the Wildcats still have the edge, shooting 73% to Louisville's 69% for the year.

The oddsmakers and our Strength power rating both give Kentucky about an 8 point edge; the earlier meeting resulted in a 7 point win for the Wildcats.

Bottom line: Louisville's defense may give Kentucky problems and should keep the pace slow, but the Cardinals will have their own difficulties on the other end of the court.

Final prediction: Kentucky 64, Louisville 61

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 26, 2012 at 12:14 PM in analysis, Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

March 24, 2012

2012 NCAA Tournament Performance by Conference at Final Four: Big East out in front

We've reached the Final Four; the Big East won two of its three battles with the Big Ten to take a big lead in conference performance at the Elite Eight, and Louisville reached the Final Four by defeating Florida.

Louisville upset Michigan State and Syracuse edged Wisconsin in Sweet Sixteen matchups, while Ohio State held off Cincinnati to avoid a shutout for the Big Ten. The Buckeyes reached the Final Four with a win over Syracuse, keeping the Big Ten in second place.

The Big 12 is in third place despite losing Missouri, its 2nd highest seed, in a huge first-round upset. Baylor and Kansas were alive in the Sweet Sixteen and both advanced to the Elite Eight, Baylor beating Xavier and Kansas edging North Carolina State. The Jayhawks beat North Carolina to advance to the Final Four.

The SEC advanced two teams to the Elite Eight—Kentucky, who beat Indiana and Florida, who upset Marquette. The Wildcats rounded out the Final Four by beating Baylor. The ACC ended in fifth place, with no teams reaching the Final Four. Like the Big Twelve, it also lost its 2nd-highest seed in a first-round upset by a 15-seed when Duke fell to Lehigh.

In terms of ranking for best overall conference, the Big East has an insurmountable lead. This measure includes a point for each bid, which reflects performance during the season. For best tournament performance (without points for bids) the Big Ten can still catch the Big East if Ohio State wins it all and Louisville doesn't advance into the final.

Teams in tourney Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final Four Title Game Champion

Big East            9       6        4      2   1
Big Ten            6              5      4 1 1
Big 12             6            4     2    2   1
SEC             4       3       2     2   1
ACC            5       3      2   1
Atl 10        4    2 1
Mt West         4      1
WCC       3 1
MAC    1 1 1
MVC        2 1
Pac-12       2   1
Col. Ath   1 1
MEAC 1 1
Patriot 1 1
Ohio Val   1 1
C-USA        2
Metro Atl    2

The Atlantic 10 ranks as the best mid-major conference this year, outpacing the Mountain West in the tournament. Both started with four teams, but the Atlantic 10 advanced two teams into the Round of 32 and Xavier moved into the Sweet Sixteen. Of the four Mountain West teams only San Diego State won their opening game. The West Coast Conference placed 3 teams in the tournament but only Gonzaga reached the Round of 32.

The Mid-American Conference had Ohio alive in the Sweet Sixteen and they took North Carolina into overtime before losing. This puts their performance ahead of the Pac-12—normally considered one of the "Big Six"—and mid-major Missouri Valley. The Pac-12 lost California in the play-in game, but Colorado got an upset win to advance to the Round of 32. In the MVC, Wichita State was upset while Creighton survived one round. Later on we'll incorporate NIT performance into the mix which redeems the Pac-12 somewhat.

The Colonial Athletic, MEAC, Patriot, and Ohio Valley all advanced their only teams to the Round of 32, where they all lost. The CAA had VCU who upset Wichita State. But the big upsets came from the MEAC and Patriot, where Norfolk State and Lehigh both upset 2-seeds. The Ohio Valley's Murray State won their first game as expected but lost to Marquette. The C-USA and Metro Atlantic both started with two teams but both lost in the first round; in the Metro Atlantic's case, one was a play-in teams (Iona).

All the other conferences only had one bid, who lost in the first round.

Since conferences with more bids have more opportunity for wins, the chart below better captures Best Tournament Performance, with points awarded solely for tournament wins:

Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final Four Title Game Champion

Big East    6       4    2 1
Big Ten        5      4    1 1
Big 12       4     2    2 1
SEC          3    2     2   1
ACC        3      2   1
Atl 10      2 1
MAC    1 1
Mt West    1
WCC      1
Pac-12     1
MVC    1
Col. Ath   1
MEAC 1
Patriot 1
Ohio Val   1

As we mentioned above, without bids counting as points the race is closer, and the Big Ten can win if the Buckeyes win the national championship. The Big Twelve can finish anywhere from second (if Kansas wins the tournament) to fourth (if Kentucky wins and Kansas loses to Ohio State). Again, with NIT performance added the lower conferences can be differentiated, which we'll do when that tournament is over.

Posted on March 24, 2012 at 12:41 PM in analysis, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2012 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) North Carolina vs. (2) Kansas

North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 1
Record: 32-5
Conference: ACC

vs.

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 2
Record: 30-6
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Sunday, March 25
Time: 5:05 pm Eastern
Location: St. Louis, MO
Region: Midwest

North Carolina needed overtime to beat Ohio without Kendall Marshall, and it will be a tall order to beat Kansas even if he returns.

North Carolina Kansas

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #4 Strength:        #5
Neutral court:   #4               Neutral court:   #5
Partial Credit: #4               Partial Credit: #6

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin:         #4               Sagarin:       #6
Pomeroy:         #7               Pomeroy:         #4
   Offense: #16                      Offense: #19
   Defense: #9                      Defense: #4
LRMC:            #5*               LRMC:            #3*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #7               2nd half/season: #4
Last 6 games:    #22               Last 6 games:    #25

Season overview: North Carolina (32-5)

Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =Michigan St.+12, @NC Asheville+16, Mississippi Valley St.+26, Wisconsin+3, Long Beach St.+6, Texas+19, North Carolina St.+19, Virginia+18, @North Carolina St.+12, @Virginia+3, @Duke+18, =North Carolina St.+2, Vermont+19, Creighton+14, =Ohio+OT
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (6): =Michigan St.+12, Wisconsin+3, North Carolina St.+19, @North Carolina St.+12, =North Carolina St.+2, =Ohio+OT
Losses to tournament teams (5): @Nevada Las Vegas-10, @Kentucky-1, @Florida St.-33, Duke-1, =Florida St.-3
Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Pre-season #1 North Carolina lived up to the billing...until they lost to UNLV. They led at pre-season #2 Kentucky most of the game until losing by a point on a blocked shot. They took their frustrations out on Evansville in the next game, winning by nearly 50 points, and continued winning until karma visited them and they were beat down 90-57 at Florida State. They led Duke by 10 with 3 minutes left but lost at home by a point. After winning 9 straight they fell again to FSU in the ACC tournament final, but still got a #1 seed at 29-5. Thanks to North Carolina State's surprise run, they have 5 wins over Sweet Sixteen opponents, having defeated the Wolfpack three times.

Forward Harrison Barnes and 7-footer Ty Zeller lead the team in scoring with 17.4 and 16.5 points per game; they pull down 5.2 and 9.3 rebounds per game apiece, but it's John Henson (#3 in scoring at 13.8) who leads with a whopping 10.1 boards. Henson missed the first game with a wrist injury but returned in the Round of 32, at which time Kendall Marshall injured his wrist and is likely to miss some or all of North Carolina's subsequent games. The Tar Heels lost starter Dexter Strictland (7.5 ppg) in the middle of the season, and with Marshall's loss the team is very weak at the point.

James McAdoo also played well when replacing Henson; he had 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 steals in the Tar Heels' opening win over Vermont. Marshall led with 18 points and 11 assists against Creighton; he averages 9.8 assists per game for the Tar Heels, and the team was very concerned about their prospects without him...and with good reason. North Carolina couldn't put Ohio away until the overtime period; what does that mean against Kansas? A loss, very likely, unless Marshall is able to play; then it becomes about 50/50.

**************************************************************

Season overview: Kansas (30-6)

Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =Georgetown+4, South Florida+28, Long Beach St.+8, Ohio St.+11, Kansas St.+18, Iowa St.+9, Baylor+18, @Texas+3, @Baylor+14, @Kansas St.+6, Missouri+OT, Texas+10, =Detroit+15, =Purdue+3, =North Carolina St.+3
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (4): Ohio St.+11, Baylor+18, @Baylor+14, =North Carolina St.+3
Losses to tournament teams (6): =Kentucky-10, =Duke-7, Davidson-6, @Iowa St.-8, @Missouri-3, Baylor-9
Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Thomas Robinson is a national player of the year candidate for Kansas. He averages 17.9 points per game, just a hair higher than teammate Tyshawn Taylor's 17.3. But he also grabs 11.8 rebounds a game, good enough for #2 in the nation. The Jayhawks rated equally good on defense and offense before the tournament, but their defensive efficiency has increased while they've slid on offense; they are still in the top 25 on both sides of the court.

Kansas lost three non-conference games this year, which is somewhat unusual. They fell to #1 seed Kentucky, #2 seed Duke, and were just 7-3 when Davidson upset them at home. But the Jayhawks righted the ship by going on a 10-game winning streak. They beat 1-seed Ohio State and 3-seed Georgetown in non-conference play, and were 3-2 combined against 2-seed Missouri and 3-seed Baylor.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: Kendall Marshall's injury is again the big topic of their upcoming game.

Marshall averaged nearly 10 assists and 8 points per game, and averaged 15 points in his last 6 games. Backup point guards Justin Watts and Stilman White combined for just 2 points against Ohio. Though they combined for 7 assists (White having 6), that's still a downgrade from Marshall.

Marshall is left-handed and his injury is to his right hand, and he was nearly ready to play against Ohio. After a few days of rest he'll be even closer to ready for Kansas. But it's still looking unlikely. And even if he does, he probably won't be 100%.

The other question is: would North Carolina beat Kansas if Marshall were 100%? That's not clear either. Our power ratings put North Carolina ahead by just a bit, as does Sagarin, while Pomeroy and LRMC have the Jayhawks ahead. It's basically a 50/50 proposition even without the injury speculation. Add in the chance that he doesn't play—fairly high—and the odds suggest Kansas wins in the majority of scenarios.

Vegas Line:

Kansas by 2

Power rating spread

UNC by 0.6

% Chance to win

UNC: 53%
Kansas: 47%

North Carolina isn't even a 1-point favorite before correcting for Marshall's likely absence. The two teams are roughly as strong as each other with a full lineup. Both have played at a lower level during the tournament.

If we were picking this game without considering Marshall, it would be a tough call. But as we said above, it's very close with him, and without him the Tar Heels are at a disadvantage.

Bottom line: We'll base our score on the assumption Marshall doesn't play, and UNC struggles on offense.

Final prediction: Kansas 74, North Carolina 63

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 24, 2012 at 09:17 AM in analysis, Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2012 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) Kentucky vs. (3) Baylor

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 35-2
Conference: SEC

vs.

Baylor Bears
Seed: 3
Record: 30-7
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Sunday, March 25
Time: 2:20 pm Eastern
Location: Atlanta, GA
Region: South

Kentucky's rich basketball heritage vs. Baylor, a team whose program has been through a lot on their recent climb to success.

Kentucky Baylor

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #1    Strength:        #15
Neutral court:   #1               Neutral court:   #14
Partial Credit: #1               Partial Credit: #12

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin:         #2               Sagarin:       #16
Pomeroy:         #1               Pomeroy:         #17
   Offense: #2                      Offense: #10
   Defense: #12                      Defense: #39
LRMC:            #1*               LRMC:            #17*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #1               2nd half/season: #13
Last 6 games:    #11               Last 6 games:    #9

Season overview: Kentucky (35-2)

Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Loyola MD+24, Lamar+22, Louisville+7, Alabama+6, Florida+20, @Vanderbilt+6, Vanderbilt+9, @Florida+15, =Florida+3, =Western Kentucky+15, =Iowa St.+16, =Indiana+12
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (7): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Louisville+7, Florida+20, @Florida+15, =Florida+3, =Indiana+12
Losses to tournament teams (2): @Indiana-1, =Vanderbilt-7
Other losses (0): none

Among the Sweet Sixteen survivors, they've beaten 1-seed North Carolina, 2-seed Kansas, 4-seed Louisville, and 7-seed Florida three times. The one Sweet Sixteen team they've lost to is Indiana, on the road, on a last-second shot; they avenged that with a 102-90 win that was much faster-paced than the earlier 73-72 loss.

**************************************************************

Season overview: Baylor (30-7)

Wins vs. tournament teams (13): San Diego St.+10, @Brigham Young+3, =St. Mary's+13, =West Virginia+OT, @Kansas St.+2, Texas+5, Iowa St.+15, @Texas+5, =Kansas St.+8, @Kansas+9, =South Dakota St.+8, =Colorado+17, =Xavier+5
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (2): @Kansas+9, =Xavier+5
Losses to tournament teams (7): @Kansas-18, Missouri-1, Kansas-14, @Missouri-15, Kansas St.-1, @Iowa St.-8, =Missouri-15
Other losses (0): none

Key Info: For a while this season, Baylor looked like an easy to diagnose team, following two simple rules. 1) They could—and did—beat everyone except the elite of the Big Twelve, Kansas and Missouri. 2) They would beat everyone below that level. The Bears were 22-4 with losses to Kansas and Missouri, twice each. Before the regular season was over, point #2 was proven wrong as they fell to Kansas State and Iowa State. Then, in the Big Twelve tournament, they proved point #1 wrong by beating Kansas. They still lost to Missouri for a third time, however.

Perry Jones III is the driving force behind the team, averaging 14 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Baylor's power ratings actually skew a little bit low due to the early games he missed, and they're in the top ten in the nation when he's with them. When he plays well they're nearly unstoppable, but he was held to 5 or fewer points in three of the Bears' losses.

Against South Dakota State, Perry Jones had only 2 points as the Bears struggled to dispatch the Jackrabbits, though he did have 11 rebounds. He scored only 7 against Colorado but the Bears won easily. It's encouraging that Baylor could win so easily without a big contribution from Jones, but his 4 rebounds against the Buffaloes suggests he's in a slump. He broke out of it to some extent with 14 points on 7 of 8 shooting against Xavier.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: Kentucky should beat Baylor; they have a talent advantage and the Bears don't have any stylistic or matchup edge that can even the gap. The only thing that could turn the tide is hunger, and you could argue that as a program, Baylor is a lot hungrier for Final Four success than Kentucky.

The Wildcats want to win a championship for coach Calipari, so they may have some extra motivation, too. But Baylor clearly has the hunger advantage. Could it be enough to get a win? Kentucky might have a bit of a letdown after getting revenge on Indiana, too.

Looking at their numbers, defense is a problem for Baylor, and defending against Kentucky is a tall task even for a great defensive team. Also, Perry Jones III has struggled during the tournament and he's got his toughest assignment yet competing against the likes of Anthony Davis.

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by 7

Power rating spread

Kentucky by 7.3

% Chance to win

Kentucky: 74%
Baylor: 26%

It's a pretty clean sweep for Kentucky in about every category. Baylor has played better in the last 6 games, but Kentucky's been playing better as the tournament progresses. Baylor's only chance is to play like their lives are at stake.

Bottom line: Unless Baylor comes out of the gate on fire and Kentucky flat, the Wildcats advance to the Final Four.

Final prediction: Kentucky 75, Baylor 68

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 24, 2012 at 08:48 AM in analysis, Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

March 23, 2012

2012 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) Syracuse vs. (2) Ohio State

Syracuse Orange
Seed: 1
Record: 34-2
Conference: Big East

vs.

Ohio State Buckeyes
Seed: 2
Record: 30-7
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Saturday, March 24
Time: 7:05 pm Eastern
Location: Boston, MA
Region: East

These are the matchups that are supposed to happen, when all goes according to plan: The #1 seed vs. the #2 seed.

Syracuse Ohio State

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #6 Strength:        #1
Neutral court:   #6               Neutral court:   #2
Partial Credit: #6               Partial Credit: #2

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(p):      #6               Sagarin(p):      #1
Pomeroy:         #6               Pomeroy:         #2
   Offense: #6                      Offense: #7
   Defense: #17                      Defense: #2
LRMC:          #8*               LRMC:            #2*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #8              2nd half/season: #3
Last 6 games:    #17           Last 6 games:    #1
Injury adj:      #11               Injury adj:      #1
Consistency: #16             Consistency: #97

Season overview: Syracuse (34-2)

Wins vs. tournament teams (15): Florida+4, @North Carolina St.+16, Marquette+7, @Cincinnati+7, West Virginia+2, Georgetown+OT, Connecticut+18, @Louisville+1, South Florida+8, @Connecticut+2, Louisville+9, =Connecticut+3, =UNC Asheville+7, =Kansas St.+16, =Wisconsin+1
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (7): Florida+4, @North Carolina St.+16, Marquette+7, @Cincinnati+7, @Louisville+1, Louisville+9, =Wisconsin+1
Losses to tournament teams (2): @Notre Dame-9, =Cincinnati-3
Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Syracuse spent most of the year at #2 in the polls, but power ratings tend to have them around #6 or so. But their consistency of play is such that they win with regularity where some higher-ranked teams stumble and have more off-games. Syracuse stumbled only twice: once when they were without center Fab Melo, and the other time in the Big East tournament, when they looked rather unconcerned that they might lose—leading me to think that Boeheim wanted to rest them before the Big Dance.

The Orange have balanced scoring, with reserves Dion Waiters and C.J. Fair among their top four in points per game. On defense, Melo averages 3 blocks per game. Melo was ruled ineligible for the NCAA tournament and as noted by broadcasters ad infinitum, the Orange are much worse in the (very small) sample of games played without him. The UNC Asheville game only reinforced the premise that he's a key component, as a full-strength Orange squad should have had no problem with the Bulldogs.

The five-game sample without Melo now includes three NCAA wins—one awful, one solid, and one just good enough. The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in a different order. Games 21 through 23 and 34-36 are the non-Melo games. According to the chart they played roughly the same against Asheville than they did against Cincinnati in the prior game. But the Kansas State win, as well as game 22—a 60-53 win at Cincinnati—were two of their better games, and although they had trouble they found a way to win against Wisconsin like they've done all year. The real test comes against Ohio State; if they can beat the Buckeyes, there's no reason to think they can't win it all, Melo or no.

**************************************************************

Season overview: Ohio State (30-7)

Wins vs. tournament teams (13): Florida+7, Duke+22, Lamar+20, Indiana+17, Michigan+15, @Wisconsin+6, Purdue+3, @Michigan St.+2, =Purdue+17, =Michigan+22, =Loyola MD+19, =Gonzaga+7, =Cincinnati+15
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (5): Florida+7, Indiana+17, @Wisconsin+6, @Michigan St.+2, =Cincinnati+15
Losses to tournament teams (6): @Kansas-11, @Indiana-4, Michigan St.-10, @Michigan-5, Wisconsin-3, =Michigan St.-4
Other losses (1): @Illinois-5

Sullinger continued where he left off last year but didn't really add anything to his arsenal, giving teams a better chance to defend him. Still, he basically replicated last year's numbers with 17.6 ppg and 9.2 rebounds. In the three games he missed or hardly played in, the Buckeyes were worse; with those games excluded, they average out as the #1 team, and maintain a top-2 defense.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: How has Syracuse done it? They only rank as the #6 team in the country yet they have the best record, against a very tough schedule. Seems that only a team that ranks at the very top—say, Kentucky, who matches their win-loss record—would have that kind of success. The odds suggest that Syracuse should have at least a few more losses. After all, even Ohio State, who outrates the Orange, have 7 losses.

The secret is that Syracuse is one of the most consistent teams in the country, rating #16 out of 345 for the lowest deviation between their performances. So they don't have the "bad" games most teams do, and avoid the upsets that plague other teams from time to time. The Orange do a lot it seems, which is remarkable. It could be good coaching. Good team + good consistency + good coaching is a good recipe for success in the NCAA tournament. The Orange are so consistent that even when they are without their starting center, they continue to play almost as well—almost—as they do without him.

The problem with being consistent is that when you're facing a team that is probably better than you, you will probably lose. Ohio State is the first team that's clearly outrated them (Wisconsin was neck-and-neck, resulting in a neck-and-neck game). And after downgrading them just a bit for missing Melo, the Orange have to be considered underdogs.

Of course, Ohio State isn't quite as consistent (though they're above average at #97), so maybe the Buckeyes will have one of their off days. After all, if they'd played as well as they rank all the time, they'd have just two losses right now. Those five additional losses had to come from somewhere.

Vegas Line:

Ohio State by 3

Power rating spread

Ohio State by 3.2 no-MELO: Ohio St by 7.3

% Chance to win

Syracuse: 39% no-MELO: 28%
Ohio State: 61% 72%

The Buckeyes are one of the few teams that outrank Syracuse across the power rating spectrum. Nearly everyone considers them a better team, regardless of the fact that Syracuse wins more games. The Orange don't dominate, and when it comes to the biggest challenges they might not be able to reach the necessary heights. The oddsmakers make the Buckeyes a 3-point favorite.

Bottom line: Ohio State is the better team, but Syracuse is better at winning games. So what happens? These teams are very consistent within our Strength power rating system, so we'll trust those results. Melo's absence—although it hasn't knocked them off yet—is just further justification as they go to face Jared Sullinger.

Final prediction: Ohio State 72, Syracuse 67

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 23, 2012 at 02:35 AM in analysis, Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2012 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (4) Louisville vs. (7) Florida

Louisville Cardinals
Seed: 4
Record: 29-9
Conference: Big East

vs.

Florida Gators
Seed: 7
Record: 26-10
Conference: SEC

Date: Saturday, March 24
Time: 4:30 pm Eastern
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Region: West

Unlike the day's other Elite Eight matchup, this one features two Elite Eight longshots.

Louisville Florida

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #20 Strength:        #11
Neutral court:   #20               Neutral court:   #11
Partial Credit: #18               Partial Credit: #10

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(p):    #17               Sagarin(p): #8
Pomeroy:         #17               Pomeroy:         #12
   Offense: #107                     Offense: #3
   Defense: #1                      Defense: #63
LRMC:            #23*              LRMC:            #22*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #20               2nd half/season: #12
Last 6 games:    #2               Last 6 games:    #4
Injury adj:      #20               Injury adj:      #10
Consistency: #226            Consistency: #270

Season overview: Louisville (29-9)

Wins vs. tournament teams (14): Lamar+20, Ohio+5, Long Beach St.+13, Vanderbilt+OT, Memphis+8, Western Kentucky+10, Connecticut+21, @West Virginia+3, =Marquette+13, =Notre Dame+14, =Cincinnati+6, =Davidson+7, =New Mexico+3, =Michigan St.+13
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams: (4): Ohio+5, =Marquette+13, =Cincinnati+6, =Michigan St.+13
Losses to tournament teams (8): Georgetown-3, @Kentucky-7, Notre Dame-OT, @Marquette-11, Syracuse-1, @Cincinnati-4, South Florida-7, @Syracuse-9
Other losses (1): @Providence-31

Key Info: For a 4-seed, Louisville has an astonishing number of wins over tournament teams—14 after their three tourney wins. That's a number usually seen with #1 seeds. True, the Big East placed 9 teams, and five of their six regular season, non-conference wins are over non-major conference foes, but one of those teams (Ohio) is now in the Sweet Sixteen. The team hit rough patches twice—losing 5 of 7, then 4 of 6—but each time recovered with a string of wins.

The team's star is point guard Peyton Siva, who will be one of the breakout stars of the tournament if Louisville manages a deep run; he was named the MVP of the Big East tournament. Siva led with 17 in the Davidson win, and although he had just 6 against New Mexico, two were on a late drive down the middle that broke the Lobos' back and he iced the game with two clutch free throws. Russ Smith had 17 points in that win.

**************************************************************

Season overview: Florida (26-10)

Wins vs. tournament teams (8): Mississippi Valley St.+28, Florida St.+18, Vanderbilt+8, @Alabama+9, =Alabama+3, =Virginia+26, =Norfolk St.+34, =Marquette+10
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): =Marquette+10
Losses to tournament teams (6): @Ohio St.-7, @Syracuse-4, @Kentucky-20, @Vanderbilt-10, Kentucky-15, =Kentucky-3
Other losses (4): @Rutgers-OT, @Tennessee-11, Tennessee-5, @Georgia-14

Key Info: Florida was 19-4 in early February but finished 4-6, including a 1-4 finish without injured part-time-starter Will Yeguete, a forward who didn't score a lot but averaged 6.3 rebounds per game. Florida has six players that score more than he does, including five that average in double figures, with guards Kenny Boynton and Bradley Beal combining for 30 points per game. That makes their offense one of the very best in the country.

Normally a great 3-point shooting team, Florida went cold recently which led to their losses. Still, they nearly beat Kentucky before falling 74-71 in the SEC tournament. Their cold shooting continued against Virginia as they hit just 4 of 23 threes. But they held Virginia to 3 of 18 while the Gators made an incredible 24 of 30 two-point baskets (80%). Against Norfolk State they held Kyle O'Quinn to just 4 points and they again shot the lights out from 2-point range making 72%. They beat Marquette without their 3-pointers, too, shooting just 27%. But Beal hit 3 of his 5 attempts en route to a 21-point performance that paced the team.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: It's offense vs. defense, in a big way. Florida plays nearly the best offense in the land and Louisville now has arguably the best defense. Which prevails?

It's important to note that both these teams got here because they're more prone to volatility in their range of performance than most teams, and so far during the tournament that has manifested on the upside. So no matter who is established as the favorite, that team might have a "down" day and the other an "up" day and it's a blowout in the opposite direction.

They say defense wins championships. That's true, but so does offense. The balance of the two is most important and for the season, Florida is a slightly better team despite their lower seed. Their defense isn't great, but it outclasses Louisville's offense by quite a bit, while Florida's O is roughly even with Louisville's defensive play.

We'd like to say we looked at matchups, analyzed players by position, thought about how Louisville's press and pressure will impact Florida's ball handlers and offensive schemes, and estimated who had the psychological edge in the meeting between mentor and student coaching on the sidelines. But that's not true. Instead we're going with the Pomeroy Principle (or whatever you want to call the theory that follows).

At some point a few years ago Ken Pomeroy looked at his tempo-free offensive and defensive rankings and noted that during the span of the data (6 years at the time?) no team with a defensive ranking below #25 had made the Final Four. I think West Virginia technically broke that rule the very next year, but they were close before the tournament and by the Elite Eight they qualified. Florida doesn't come close to qualifying. That means we're going with defense, and Louisville.

Further, Florida benefitted from playing a 15-seed in round two as well as an down-on-luck 10-seed in round one. Louisville played a tough New Mexico team and #1 seed Michigan State. So although Florida's recent performance ranks #4, Louisville's is #2. The teams are essentially even currently, which means we can feel okay about using a data-based "law" to pick our winner among two teams that aren't supposed to have come this far.

Vegas Line:

Florida by 1 1/2

Power rating spread

Florida by 2.5

% Chance to win

Louisville: 45.6%
Florida: 54.4%

Given a full-seasons' worth of data, our power rating picks Florida. So do the oddsmakers. And we're picking the other team.

Bottom Line: Unless Florida's 3-point shooting comes back to life suddenly—less likely against Louisville's defense—the Cardinals are our favorite.

Final prediction: Louisville 68, Florida 66

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 23, 2012 at 02:32 AM in analysis, Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (1)

SportsRatings: College Basketball

College Basketball: Analysis, commentary, power ratings, NCAA seeding projections, and daily updated RPI.

SportsRatings sites

Search SportsRatings

Pages

Recent Posts

Categories

Archives

About

2012 NCAA Tournament Schedule, Previews, Odds, Predictions, Results and Final Scores

April 03, 2012

2012 Conference Performance: In NCAA + NIT Results, Big East edges Big Ten

April 01, 2012

2012 NCAA Tournament Championship Game Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) Kentucky vs. (2) Kansas

March 28, 2012

2012 NIT Championship Game Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (3) Stanford vs. (6) Minnesota

March 26, 2012

2012 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (2) Kansas vs. (2) Ohio State

2012 NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) Kentucky vs. (4) Louisville

March 24, 2012

2012 NCAA Tournament Performance by Conference at Final Four: Big East out in front

2012 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) North Carolina vs. (2) Kansas

2012 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) Kentucky vs. (3) Baylor

March 23, 2012

2012 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) Syracuse vs. (2) Ohio State

2012 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (4) Louisville vs. (7) Florida